Ok, so - I'm going to make the assumption that Austria beats Cyprus on matchday one - this will move their rankings points to 1590.76
This table then shows the possibilities for Austria (and Bosnia's) ranking points in the event of win/draw/loss for each team (and variations based off Bosnia v Romania's result on matchday one - because this will affect the points change for Austria)
Starting points column displays either Austria's starting points, or Bosnia's starting points, but the other 3 columns will show only Austria's points)
| Starting Points | Austria Win | Draw | Bosnia Win |
| Austria | 1590.76 | | | |
| Bosnia (defeated Romania) | 1357.11 | 1598.00 | 1585.5 | 1573.00 |
| Bosnia (draw with Romania) | 1344.61 | 1597.76 | 1585.26 | 1572.76 |
| Bosnia (loss to Romania) | 1332.11 | 1597.52 | 1585.02 | 1572.52 |
Bear in mind that, in the event Bosnia wins their first match, and then also defeats Austria (the top row) this likely means Austria fails to qualify, so we'd jump them in the Seedings regardless.
Next, to Ecuador - they have two matches - first against Canada, and then secondly against NZ (who plays Colombia in the first matchday). For hypotheticals sake, I'm going to make the prediction that Colombia beats NZ, so will have NZ starting off on that note.
First row is purely for Ecuador v Canada. Second row and below spells out the different points for results against NZ, taking into account different results v Canada (based off NZ losing to Colombia first)
| Starting Points | Ecuador win | Draw | Canada Win |
| Ecuador | 1589.27 | 1593.93 | 1588.93 | 1583.93 |
| Ecuador (defeated Canada) | 1593.93 | 1596.24 | 1591.24 | 1586.24 |
| Ecuador (draw with Canada) | 1588.93 | 1591.27 | 1586.27 | 1581.27 |
| Ecuador (loss to Canada) | 1583.93 | 1586.31 | 1581.31 | 1576.31 |
Now, here's where I'll have to do half guesses of things. At the moment, from what I can see, South Korea only has a friendly against Bolivia booked for Nov 14. And then Australia has Argentina on Nov 17 (if we take Goal.com's word for it). So, Korea will have a match AFTER the table below for their results matrix, and Australia AND Argentina will have one before (meaning their initial inputs will differ slightly) - nonetheless I will do anyways, just so we have a reference point
| Starting points | KOR win | Draw | BOL win |
| Korea | 1591.84 | 1594.57 | 1589.57 | 1584.57 |
| Bolivia | 1336.18 | Who cares | Who cares | Who cares |
| Starting Points | ARG win | Draw | AUS win |
| Argentina | 1872.25 | Who cares | Who cares | Who cares |
| Australia | 1586.13 | 1583.63 | 1588.63 | 1593.63 |
So bottom line is, let's assume we lose to Argentina - what we want is basically either of the following scenarios happening to snek into Pot 2:
- Ecuador loses to Canada AND fails to defeat New Zealand
- Ecuador draws with Canada AND loses to New Zealand
- Korea to lose AND play an additional friendly AND
- draw - if it's a lower ranked nation than them OR
- lose - it it's a higher ranked nation than them
- Austria to lose to Bosnia and Herzegovina - this will either see them lose enough ranking points OR fail to qualify directly (depending on the result of Bosnia & Herzegovina v Romania on Matchday 1)
- Belgium fail to qualify directly somehow
- Germany fail to qualify directly somehow
- Denmark fail to qualify directly somehow
Note that I'm assuming Italy will fail to qualify directly, as to do so, they need to have all the following happen:
- Norway NOT WIN against Estonia
- Better whatever result Norway gets against Estonia (in the event that Norway doesn't win)
- Defeat Norway
- If Norway defeats Estonia, and Italy defeats Moldova, Italy then needs to beat Norway AND overturn a 16 goal difference to jump Norway at the top
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