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WC 2026 Seedings

patjennings said:
So over the next few days we want to beat USA then
Mexico to beat Ecuador
Brazil to beat Japan
Paraguay to beat Korea
Click to expand...
So for all four of those matches - I'm trying to make a table that shows what the new ranking points should be for all results:

Points total pre-matchTeam A WinDrawTeam B Win
USA v Australia (USA)1669.261673.491668.491663.49
USA v Australia (Australia)1588.251584.021589.021594.02
Mexico v Ecuador (Mexico)1688.381692.441687.441682.44
Mexico v Ecuador (Ecuador)1588.821584.761589.761594.76
Japan v Brazil (Japan)1639.161645.341640.341635.34
Japan v Brazil (Brazil)1765.041758.061763.861768.86
Korea Rep v Paraguay (Korea)1589.751593.921588.921583.92
Korea Rep v Paraguay (Paraguay)1502.321498.151503.151508.15

Basic summary:

If we beat USA, and Ecuador draws with Mexico, and regardless of Korea's result v Paraguay, we'll jump ahead of both Ecuador and Korea after this rankings window.

With a draw against USA, and losses for Ecuador and Korea, we'll still jump ahead of both.

I'm not sure what the relevance of the Japan v Brazil game is - they're quite a ways ahead of us in rankings points. Austria and Iran are the ones to look at. Austria's matches are worth more rankings points too, because they're actually in a qualification window.
 
Who do we want to play in the November window?

I am so sure about the rumoured game against Argentina in India in the November window. Maybe in March instead, if we can't a decent team to Australia. Maybe some African opposition in one of the windows before the World Cup.
 
Estimate of upcoming game:


Match OutcomeUSA New PointsAustralia New Points
🇺🇸 USA wins1673.491584.02
🤝 Draw1668.491589.02
🇦🇺 Australia wins1663.491594.02
 
ossi said:
Estimate of upcoming game:


Match OutcomeUSA New PointsAustralia New Points
🇺🇸 USA wins1673.491584.02
🤝 Draw1668.491589.02
🇦🇺 Australia wins1663.491594.02
Click to expand...
yep - already covered
NicCarBel

Post in thread 'WC 2026 Seedings'

patjennings said:
So over the next few days we want to beat USA then
Mexico to beat Ecuador
Brazil to beat Japan
Paraguay to beat Korea
Click to expand...
So for all four of those matches - I'm trying to make a table that shows what the new ranking points should be for all results:

Points total pre-matchTeam A WinDrawTeam B Win
USA v Australia (USA)1669.261673.491668.491663.49
USA v Australia (Australia)1588.251584.021589.021594.02
Mexico v Ecuador...
  • Like
 
NicCarBel said:
So for all four of those matches - I'm trying to make a table that shows what the new ranking points should be for all results:

Points total pre-matchTeam A WinDrawTeam B Win
USA v Australia (USA)1669.261673.491668.491663.49
USA v Australia (Australia)1588.251584.021589.021594.02
Mexico v Ecuador (Mexico)1688.381692.441687.441682.44
Mexico v Ecuador (Ecuador)1588.821584.761589.761594.76
Japan v Brazil (Japan)1639.161645.341640.341635.34
Japan v Brazil (Brazil)1765.041758.061763.861768.86
Korea Rep v Paraguay (Korea)1589.751593.921588.921583.92
Korea Rep v Paraguay (Paraguay)1502.321498.151503.151508.15

Basic summary:

If we beat USA, and Ecuador draws with Mexico, and regardless of Korea's result v Paraguay, we'll jump ahead of both Ecuador and Korea after this rankings window.

With a draw against USA, and losses for Ecuador and Korea, we'll still jump ahead of both.

I'm not sure what the relevance of the Japan v Brazil game is - they're quite a ways ahead of us in rankings points. Austria and Iran are the ones to look at. Austria's matches are worth more rankings points too, because they're actually in a qualification window.
Click to expand...
Just moving us up in the AFC
 
I can't be bothered looking for the original - will update and copypasta this post sometime tomorrow, and then again on Wednesday afternoon (after all qualifiers for this window are complete)

CURRENT PROJECTED QUALIFICATION SLOTS (based SOLELY off Current Group Standings, and then FIFA Rankings to decide playoff participants/winners/etc

Bold = already qualified for that stage/World Cup finals
Pots + rankings to come after work (and playoff paths, I might try and work that out too as best I can)

CURRENT as of 14/10/2025 3pm AEDT

CONCACAF
  1. USA (16)
  2. Canada (27)
  3. Mexico (14)
  4. Suriname (129)
  5. Curacao (81)
  6. Honduras (66)
CAF
  1. Morocco (12)
  2. Tunisia (43)
  3. Egypt (33)
  4. Algeria (38)
  5. Ghana (73)
  6. Senegal (18)
  7. Benin (88)
  8. Cape Verde (72)
  9. Ivory Coast (42)
AFC
  1. Japan (20)
  2. Korea Republic (22)
  3. Iran (21)
  4. Australia (24)
  5. Uzbekistan (54)
  6. Jordan (67)
  7. Saudi Arabia (59)
  8. United Arab Emirates (65)
OFC
  1. New Zealand (84)
CONMEBOL
  1. Argentina (3)
  2. Ecuador (23)
  3. Colombia (13)
  4. Uruguay (15)
  5. Brazil (6)
  6. Paraguay (39)
UEFA
  1. Germany (11)
  2. Switzerland (17)
  3. Denmark (19)
  4. France (2)
  5. Spain (1)
  6. Portugal (5)
  7. Netherlands (7)
  8. Austria (25)
  9. Norway (30)
  10. Belgium (8)
  11. England (4)
  12. Croatia (10)
Playoffs (any confederation)
  1. Intercontinental 1
  2. Intercontinental 2
    1. New Caledonia (149)
    2. Bolivia (75)
    3. Jamaica (70)
    4. Honduras (66)
    5. Cameroon (52)
    6. Qatar (55)
  3. UEFA 1
  4. UEFA 2
  5. UEFA 3
  6. UEFA 4
    • Slovakia (47)
    • Kosovo (89)
    • Scotland (37)
    • Ukraine (28)
    • Turkey (26)
    • Hungary (40)
    • Poland (34)
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina (74)
    • Italy (9)
    • North Macedonia (63)
    • Albania (62)
    • Czechia (44)
    • Wales (32)
    • Romania (45)
    • Sweden (35)
    • Moldova (157)

Playoff Fixtures​

INTERCONTINENTAL
  • Held across 4 matches in two separate paths, with the two highest ranked teams being seeded (Cameroon and Qatar in the above scenario)
  • Each path will follow the fixture list below:
    • Match 1: Unseeded A v Unseeded B
    • Match 2: Seeded v Winner Match 1
    • Winner of Match 2 qualifies for FIFA World Cup
  • The four unseeded nations will be drawn randomly.
UEFA
  • 4x pots of 4, split by FIFA ranking for the group runners up in Pots 1-3, with the four Nations League qualifiers in Pot 4.
  • Each path will consist of 2 single-leg 'Semi Finals' (at the higher seed home ground), with a final for each path to determine qualification (to be drawn randomly of the two 'Semi Final' winners
  • Pots 1 and 2 will be kept separate from each other, as will Pots 3 and 4, with each path to be followed as such:
    • Match A: Pot 1 v Pot 4
    • Match B: Pot 2 v Pot 3
    • Match C: Winner Match A v Winner Match B
    • Winner of Match C to qualify for FIFA World Cup
  • Below are the pots as they would be based off the above breakdown:
    • Note that Kosovo v Bosnia & Herzergovina is a prohibited clash by UEFA, and cannot be drawn into the same path
POT 1POT 2POT 3POT 4
ItalyScotlandSlovakiaKosovo
TurkeyHungaryAlbaniaMoldova
UkraineCzechiaNorth MacedoniaWales
PolandRomaniaBosnia & HerzegovinaSweden

The Pots​

Bold = hosts

Pot 1​

  1. Spain (1)
  2. France (2)
  3. Argentina (3)
  4. England (4)
  5. Portugal (5)
  6. Brazil (6)
  7. Netherlands (7)
  8. Belgium (8)
  9. Croatia (10)
  10. Mexico (14)
  11. USA (16)
  12. Canada (27)

Pot 2​

  1. Germany (11)
  2. Morocco (12)
  3. Colombia (13)
  4. Uruguay (15)
  5. Switzerland (17)
  6. Senegal (18)
  7. Denmark (19)
  8. Japan (20)
  9. Iran (21)
  10. Korea Republic (22)
  11. Ecuador (23)
  12. Australia (24)
  13. Austria (25)

Pot 3​

  1. Norway (30)
  2. Egypt (33)
  3. Algeria (38)
  4. Paraguay (39)
  5. Ivory Coast (42)
  6. Tunisia (43)
  7. Uzbekistan (54)
  8. Saudi Arabia (59)
  9. North Macedonia (63)
  10. United Arab Emirates (65)
  11. Jordan (67)
  12. Cape Verde (72)

Pot 4​

  1. Ghana (73)
  2. Curacao (81)
  3. New Zealand (84)
  4. Haiti (85)
  5. Benin (88)
  6. Suriname (129)
  7. Intercontinental Playoff Winner #1
    • Cameroon (52)
  8. Intercontinental Playoff Winner #2
    • Costa Rica (46)
  9. UEFA Playoff Winner # 1
    • Belgium (8)
  10. UEFA Playoff Winner # 2
    • Italy (9)
  11. UEFA Playoff Winner #3
    • Turkey (26)
  12. UEFA Playoff Winner #4
    • Ukraine (28)


Just for shits and gigs, I did how the pots would be based off current rankings if all the highest ranking nations from each confederation qualified in their 'rightful' spot. Surprisingly, Australia is only one slot off Pot 2 in this instance (by 0.57 points!)

1760343372110.png

Essentially, this means should only one of Italy, Belgium, Germany, or Denmark fail to qualify directly (these seem to be the 4 most at risk based off the tables), we will be in Pot 2 for the final draw

In terms of countries 'failing' to qualify, when they really should have, these are the nations that aren't set to qualify (again, based off standings), that should have (based off rankings)

CONCACAF
  1. Panama (29)
  2. Costa Rica* (46)
    • Currently on track to advance via the Intercontinental playoffs, but should have qualified directly based off rankings
CONMEBOL
  1. Peru* (49)
    • Should have advanced to Intercontinental Playoffs (and qualify) based off rankings
AFC
  1. Qatar* (55)
    • Currently on track to advance to Intercontinental Playoffs (and qualify based off rankings), but should have qualified directly
  2. Iraq* (58)
    • Currently on track to advance to final Asian playoff (and fail to qualify based off rankings), but should have qualified directly
CAF
  1. Nigeria (41)
  2. Cameroon* (52)
    • Currently on track to advance to Intercontinental Playoffs (and qualify based off rankings), but should have qualified directly
  3. Mali (53)
  4. South Africa* (57)
    • Currently in the mix for qualifying for the African Playoffs (and failing to qualify based of standings), but should theoretically qualify for the Intercontinental Playoffs (and qualify) based off rankings
OFC
  1. Solomon Islands* (148)
    • Should have advanced to Intercontinental Playoffs (and fail to qualify) based off rankings
UEFA
  1. Belgium* (8)
    • Currently on track to advance to UEFA Playoffs (and qualify based off rankings), but should have qualified directly
  2. Italy* (9)
    • Currently on track to advance to UEFA Playoffs (and qualify based off rankings), but should have qualified directly
  3. Wales* (32)
    • Currently on track to advance to Intercontinental Playoffs (and fail to qualify based off rankings), but should qualify for the World Cup via UEFA Playoffs based off rankings

P.S - remind to just do the spreadsheet first next time - will save space on the post!
 
Last edited:
Looks like our rumoured friendly against Argentina in India won't go ahead. We'll have to find another opponent for the November window. Probably a blessing with pots on the line.

 
HappyGuus said:
Looks like our rumoured friendly against Argentina in India won't go ahead. We'll have to find another opponent for the November window. Probably a blessing with pots on the line.

Click to expand...

just for hypotheticals:

A win over Argentina in a friendly would be worth +7.48
A loss -2.52
A draw +2.48
 
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