Ok - so here's how things stand for each group in Europe heading into the final matchday:
Group A
Luxembourg is eliminated
Germany and Slovakia tied on points with two games to go (Germany ahead by 2 goals)
Northern Ireland 3 points behind
Too many scenarios to work out, so details of ladder above
Group B
On the first matchday:
Switzerland can qualify with a victory over Sweden AND Kosovo failing to defeat Slovenia, OR
Switzerland can qualify with a draw over Sweden AND Slovenia defeating Kosovo
On the second matchday:
Switzerland will qualify with a victory over Kosovo, regardless of all other results
Sweden are guaranteed a playoff spot due to their Nations League position, however will need to win both games (and have other results go their way) to finish second in the group and be seeded for the playoffs
Group C
Only Denmark and Scotland can qualify directly.
Scotland hosts Denmark on the final matchday, in what is essentially probably going to be a playoff for the automatic spot.
Denmark and Scotland are both tied on points, with Denmark ahead by 6 goals in goal difference. Their first match was a 0-0 draw.
Denmark will qualify IF
Denmark defeats both Belarus AND doesn't lose to Scotland
Scotland will qualify IF
Scotland defeats both Greece AND Denmark
Essentially, Denmark just needs to not lose to Scotland, and at least match their first result in the November window.
Where things will get confusing is if they both lose to Greece and Belarus on the first matchday, and then either Scotland or Denmark win that final match - the winner will qualify, regardless of goal difference.
Group D
France will qualify with a draw OR a victory over Ukraine on matchday one.
Ukraine and France will be tied on points if Ukraine defeat France on matchday one, so Ukraine would qualify if they defeat France, and then better France's result in Azerbaijan, against Iceland.
In the event they match results on the second matchday, France is currently 5 goals ahead of Ukraine
Iceland can only qualify directly IF they win both their final two matches, AND France loses both of their final two matches AND goal difference goes their way (France currently 4 ahead of Iceland - so only one match needs to have a scoreline difference of 2+ goals for Iceland to overtake France in this scenario. Though they also would have to worry about Ukraine's goal difference, as this scenario would mean 3 teams tied on 10 points).
Group E
Spain can qualify directly on matchday one IF either:
Spain defeats Georgia AND Turkey fails to defeat Bulgaria, OR
Spain draws with Georgia AND Bulgaria defeats Turkey
Spain plays Turkey on the final matchday, so Turkey's only hope is for them to win both games.
Group F
Portugal can qualify on matchday one IF either:
Portugal defeats Ireland, OR
Portugal draws with Ireland AND Hungary fails to defeat Armenia
Hungary or Ireland will need to win both their final two games (they play eachother on the final day) to have a hope of direct qualification, coupled with Portugal failing to win both of their final two games, with at least one of those being a loss.
Group G
Netherlands will qualify if they defeat Poland in the first matchday.
A draw will also essentially seal qualification, with either a draw against Lithuania, or Poland failing to defeat Malta on the final matchday sealing Netherland's spot
Group H
3 nations can still qualify:
Austria - 15 pts (+16)
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 13 pts (+8)
Romania - 10 pts (+5)
Austria will qualify IF:
Austria defeats Cyprus AND Bosnia & Herzegovina loses to Romania on the first matchday
Other scenarios as below
BIH will qualify if:
BIH defeat Romania AND Austria do not defeat Cyprus on the first matchday AND
BIH defeat Austria on the final matchday.
In the event Austria draws with Cyprus, BIH will also need to overturn an 8 goal difference between them and Austria
Romania will qualify IF:
They WIN both their final two games (BIH and San Marino) AND
Austria LOSE both final two games (Cyprus and BIH)
Group I
Norway currently on top by 3 points head of Italy, with two games to play - one of them being Italy's home game against Norway on the final day.
Norway can qualify on matchday one IF:
Moldova defeats Italy AND Norway doesn't lose to Estonia, OR
Moldova and Italy draw AND Norway defeats Estonia
In the more likely event Norway and Italy both win their first game, Italy will need to defeat Norway, and overturn a 16 goal difference to qualify directly. Essentially Italy can only qualify directly if:
Norway does not win either of their final two games AND:
Italy betters Norway's result on matchday one (if Norway do not win that game), AND
Italy defeats Norway on matchday two
Group J
Belgium will qualify on matchday one with a victory over Kazakhstan
North Macedonia will qualify IF
They defeat Wales on matchday two AND
Belgium fails to score a victory in either of their matches against Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein UNLESS it is two draws.
In the event Belgium draws both games, North Macedonia will need to defeat Wales by 8 goals.
Group K
England has qualified directly
Albania and Serbia are separated by 1 point and 3 goals, with both teams having to play England in the next window - only one of them can make the playoffs.
Group L
Only Croatia and Czechia can qualify
Croatia will qualify with a draw from either of their final games in November (Montenegro and Faroe Islands)
Czechia can only qualify IF Croatia lose both games above AND Czechia defeats Gibraltar AND overturns a 15 goal difference between them.
As things stand, this is the pots (Pots 1 -3 based off FIFA Rankings, Pot 4 for Nations League Group Winners that haven't finished in the top 2 of WCQ) for the playoffs, which will be drawn into 4 paths with the following format:
Pot 1 will play Pot 4 at home
Pot 2 will play Pot 3 at home
Winners of each match will play a single leg final playoff for qualification, with the host to be decided by a draw immediately following the first matches
Kosovo and Bosnia & Herzegovina cannot be drawn into the same playoff path
Cristiano Ronaldo has confirmed that the 2026 World Cup will be his sixth and last one with Portugal, and that he plans to retire from all association football in one or two years' time.
CR7 red carded 59min haha
Ports start up is pretty much all key players - kudos to the luck of the Irish - 2 goals 1st half and held on.
Great result for them.
Azzurri win away but damn 2 late goals win is a win.
England defeat Serbia 2-0 in their penultimate World Cup qualifying group K game to remain unbeaten with a 100% record, with Bukayo Saka and Ebere Eze the goalscorers. Serbia now eliminated from World Cup contention altogether this cycle after Albania get a 1-0 win over Andorra to make the playoffs.
So with 4 groups having completed their penultimate matchday, matches of (technical) importance for those groups on the final day:
Group D
Ukraine v Iceland - Iceland ahead on goal difference, but essentially a playoff for the group's playoff spot. France has already sealed top spot.
Group F
Hungary v Republic of Ireland - technically either team can still grab top spot (alongside Portugal not winning, but more on that later). The winning team (or Hungary if it's a draw) will advance to the playoffs regardless
Portugal v Armenia - a win for Portugal will see them finish on top. A draw for Portugal, alongside Hungary defeating Ireland will see Hungary top with Portugal second. A loss for Portugal and either a Hungary win, or an Ireland win by 5 goals, will see them finish second as well.
Group I
Italy v Norway - essentially a dead rubber, with Norway 3pts and +17 on Goal Difference. So Norway will finish on top unless Italy can defeat Norway by 9+ goals. No other team can overtake Italy for second.
Group K
No games - England has confirmed top spot, and Albania the playoff spot.
Italy v Norway - essentially a dead rubber, with Norway 3pts and +17 on Goal Difference. So Norway will finish on top unless Italy can defeat Norway by 9+ goals. No other team can overtake Italy for second.
If Italy make it to the World Cup I'll have to find something else to take the piss out of my wife, her family and their relatives. I've had 12 years of hilarity at their expense at family functions.
Malta with a shock win in Finland. Gibraltar score first against Montenegro.
Faroe Islands took lead in Croatia but now 1:1.
Luxembourg hassling Germany who are all over the place tonight. Complacent to comical in the first 35min. Bit like Australia Asia away with complacent attacks and silly risking passing at the back.
Croatia end up getting the win 3-1 over the Faroe Islands, which guarantees the Czech Republic a spot in the playoffs as the Faroe Islands have now played all their games and are out of World Cup qualifying contention altogether.
So with 4 groups having completed their penultimate matchday, matches of (technical) importance for those groups on the final day:
Group D
Ukraine v Iceland - Iceland ahead on goal difference, but essentially a playoff for the group's playoff spot. France has already sealed top spot.
Group F
Hungary v Republic of Ireland - technically either team can still grab top spot (alongside Portugal not winning, but more on that later). The winning team (or Hungary if it's a draw) will advance to the playoffs regardless
Portugal v Armenia - a win for Portugal will see them finish on top. A draw for Portugal, alongside Hungary defeating Ireland will see Hungary top with Portugal second. A loss for Portugal and either a Hungary win, or an Ireland win by 5 goals, will see them finish second as well.
Group I
Italy v Norway - essentially a dead rubber, with Norway 3pts and +17 on Goal Difference. So Norway will finish on top unless Italy can defeat Norway by 9+ goals. No other team can overtake Italy for second.
Group K
No games - England has confirmed top spot, and Albania the playoff spot.
Group A
* Germany v Slovakia - essentially a playoff for qualification (a draw will see Germany qualify on top). Loser goes to the playoffs. Northern Ireland confirmed in playoffs as Nations League group winner.
Group G
* Malta v Poland - Technically still in play, although essentially guaranteed. Poland needs to better Netherlands result to qualify directly ahead of Netherlands. In the event both nations win, Poland will also need to win by 13 goals more than what Netherlands does.
* Netherlands v Lithuania - see above
Group L
* No matches - Croatia has qualified directly, and Czechia has advanced to the playoffs.
Kazakhstan lead Belgium early. Just realised even with a with a loss here, Belgium will finish on 17 points with their last home game against Liechtenstein which they will surely win.
North Macedonia and Wales face off but neither can reach 17 points.
