The annual NicCarBel TOURNAMENT PERMUTATIONS POST

[JS96]

 

[NicCarBel]

Only 26 combinations left!

25 of them would have had us playing Germany, with the other playing Colombia/Portugal. France out of the equation for Paraguay now

 

[NicCarBel]

25 of them would have had us playing Germany, with the other playing Colombia/Portugal. France out of the equation for Paraguay now

Only 26 combinations left!

If I'm looking right, will be down to 15 combinations if things in Group H end this way. And doing so confirms Germany v Paraguay

 

[NicCarBel]

From the combinations left (I haven't looked at the table), I believe this means Bosnia (already confirmed), Paraguay, Ecuador and Sweden confirmed in as 3rd places. Senegal all but confirmed (is only one of the combos left where they haven't qualified)

In terms of the knockout placements, the following will be confirmed:

Germany v Paraguay
France v Sweden
USA v Bosnia AND Herzegovina (shoutout Santo Cilauro)

Mexico will play either Ecuador, or Scotland in the off chance they still sneak through)
Whoever tops Group G likely to play South Korea

 

[NicCarBel]

ok so here's how things stand for each of the 4 remaining groups (next post will be specifically on third placings):

Group G

• Again - This group hinges a lot on the variations of results in the two games, so rather than break down by team at this point (like Group C and F), I will break down by match combinations
  • Egypt wins and NZ wins = Egypt first, NZ second, Iran and Belgium separated by standard tie-breakers for 3rd/4th (but likely eliminated
  • Egypt wins and NZ/Belgium draw = Egypt first, Belgium second, NZ and Iran separated by standard tie-breakers for 3rd/4th (but likely eliminated)
  • Egypt wins and Belgium wins = Egypt first, Belgium second, Iran third (but likely eliminated), NZ fourth
  • Egypt/Iran draw and NZ wins = Egypt first, NZ second, Iran third, Belgium fourth
  • DRAW in both games = Egypt first and NZ fourth - but Iran and Belgium with the 2010 NZ treatment of 3 draws, so the score of the draws on the final matchday would matter (with Iran currently ahead with one more goal scored)
  • Egypt/Iran draw and Belgium wins = Egypt first, Belgium second, Iran third, NZ 4th, unless Belgium wins by 3
  • Iran wins and NZ wins = Iran first, Egypt second, NZ third, Belgium 4th
  • Iran wins and NZ/Belgium draw = Iran first, Egypt second Belgium third, NZ 4th
  • Iran wins and Belgium wins = Iran and Belgium 1st and 2nd, but separated by standard tie-breakers, Egypt third (and likely through), NZ 4th

Group J

• Argentina has sealed top spot, with Jordan confirmed in 4th place
• For Austria and Algeria, it is the exact same situation as Australia and Paraguay in Group D - with Austria in Australia's situation, and Algeria in Paraguay's

Group K

• Colombia has sealed a top 2 position.
• Portugal will can only be knocked out of the top 2 by:
  • Losing to Colombia, AND
  • DR Congo defeating Uzbekistan, WITH a combined 7 goal turnaround (or 6 goal turnaround if DRC can score 5+ goals)
• Uzbekistan can only advance by being one of the best 8 third-placed nations, and must defeat DR Congo to do so
• DR Congo is assured of third place in the group with a draw (though likely eliminated)
  • A win over Uzbekistan will see them likely advance as one of the best 8 third-placed nations, unless the scenario of overcoming Portugal above takes place.

Group L
I'm actually about to head to an event, so will finish this shortly, but it is the same scenario as both Groups C and F (except for GD), with England in the Netherlands/Brazil scenario, Ghana in the Japan/Morocco scenario, and Croatia in the Sweden/Scotland scenario:

• England and Ghana drew, so in the event of a draw in both games, England will advance in first, Ghana second, and Croatia third
• This group hinges a lot on the variations of results in the two games, so rather than break down by team, I will break down by match combinations (except draw in both matches, because already outlined above)
  • England wins and Ghana wins = England and Ghana 1st and 2nd (split by standard tie-breakers, England currently +1 on on GD), Croatia 3rd
  • England wins and Ghana/Croatia draw = England 1st, Ghana 2nd, Croatia 3rd
  • England wins and Croatia wins = England 1st, Croatia 2nd, Ghana 3rd
  • England draw and Ghana wins = Ghana 1st, England 2nd, Croatia 3rd
  • England draw and Croatia wins = Croatia 1st, England 2nd, Ghana 3rd
  • England lose and Ghana wins = Ghana 1st, England 2nd, Croatia 3rd
  • England lose and Ghana/Croatia draw = Ghana 1st, England 2nd, Croatia 3rd
  • England lose and Croatia win = Croatia 1st, England and Ghana 2nd and 3rd (split by standard tie-breakers)

 

[NicCarBel]

Here's the current standings for Third-Places after the completion of Group H


Only Uruguay is confirmed eliminated, at the moment, with Sweden, Ecuador, Bosnia AND Herzegovina, and Paraguay confirmed through to the next round.

Scotland will be eliminated quite quickly I think. Unless NZ defeat Belgium today, Scotland will be eliminated (draw means Belgium tied on GD). Only other combination that might see them not out yet is if NZ and Belgium draw, and Egypt defeat Iran (as Iran and NZ will then both be on 2 points in 3rd - and also eliminated.

South Korea technically in same spot as Scotland, but with a couple extra goals in hand for GD

Might do the rest of the third placing permutations after Group G is complete. But for 3rd place in Group G to be in with a chance, Iran must not lose (draw sends them to 3pts 0GD). New Zealand winning is actually a bit of a double-edged sword for Scotland - they would actually need New Zealand to win AND have Egypt defeat Iran (which would also see Socceroos face All Whites)

 

[JS96]

Geez that point is so vital for Iran. No way Ghana smash Croatia to knock them down.

I think Iran sneak in as the last 3rd with DR Congo winning but Algeria losing.