The annual NicCarBel TOURNAMENT PERMUTATIONS POST

[NicCarBel]

I'm gonna pop in threads as needed because more eyeballs - but it's time to begin what is (probably) my annual PERMUTATIONS POST

Given the large amount of third placed teams that can make it - I will be doing this the old way (at first) in only seeking out who needs to do what to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in their group. It won't be until the final matchdays begin looking at which 3rd places can make it altogether.

I will be adding each group slowly as I sit down and look at groups, etc etc

Group A

• Mexico is confirmed top of the group
• South Korea will seal second place with a draw against South Africa
• South Africa must win to have a shot at going into second, though it is not guaranteed, because
  • Defeating South Korea will jump them into second outright only if Czechia fail to defeat Mexico.
• Czechia must defeat Mexico AND have South Korea lose to South Africa to possibly progress in second, as Czechia and South Africa will then be tied on points and head to head, so standard tie-breakers will then apply to separate 2nd and 3rd.

Group B

• Canada will seal first place with a draw against Switzerland.
• Switzerland will seal first place with a victory over Canada.
• Bosnia & Herzegovina and Qatar must win to have a sniff at progressing in either first or second, but will need the Canada v Switzerland match to end in a result, and with scorelines their way. Scenarios possible (but not all of them) include:
  • BIH win and Switzerland win means Canada and BIH will need to be separated by standard tie-breakers due to being equal on head-to-head
  • BIH win and Canada win means Canada tops group, Switzerland being in second due to head-to-head result against BIH.
  • Qatar essentially has the same premise, but swap Canada and Switzerland
  • Essentially - BIH wants Switzerland to win, Qatar wants Canada to win - but Qatar or BIH must win their match as well, as a draw in Canada v Switzerland ensures Canada finishes top, and Switzerland finishes second.

Group C

• Brazil and Morocco drew, so in the event of a draw in both games, Brazil will advance in first, Morocco second, and Scotland third
• This group hinges a lot on the variations of results in the two games, so rather than break down by team, I will break down by match combinations (except draw in both matches, because already outlined above)
  • Brazil wins and Morocco wins = Goal difference to separate top two, Scotland in third
  • Brazil wins and Morocco fails to win = Brazil first, Morocco second, Scotland third
  • Brazil v Scotland draw and Morocco win = Morocco first, Brazil second, Scotland third
  • Brazil v Scotland draw and Morocco loss = Brazil first, Morocco second, Scotland third (as Morocco defeated Scotland)
  • Scotland win and Morocco win = Morocco first, Scotland second, Brazil third
  • Scotland win and Morocco draw = Scotland first, Morocco second, Brazil third
  • Scotland win and Morocco loss = Scotland first, Morocco and Brazil to be separated by standard tie-breakers

Group D

• USA is confirmed as group winners
• Turkey is confirmed as fourth place
• The only match worth anything in this group is Paraguay v Australia
  • If Australia win or draw, they will progress in second place,
  • If Paraguay win, they will progress in second place.

Group E

• Germany is confirmed as group winners
• Ivory Coast will progress as second place with a draw in their match - as an Ecuador victory over Germany will then see Ivory Coast and Ecuador tied on points, and Ivory Coast is ahead on head-to-head
• Ecuador and Curacao must win their respective matches to progress as second place, and have the other result go their way:
  • Both Ecuador and Curacao winning means they will finish second and third, and be separated by traditional tie-breakers
  • If Curacao fails to defeat Ivory Coast, and Ecuador at least draw with Germany, Ecuador will seal third place (but will likely be eliminated unless it's a victory).
  • If Curacao defeats Ivory Coast, and Ecuador fails to defeat Germany, Curacao will progress as second place, and Ivory Coast will finish in third.

Group F

• Netherlands and Japan drew, so in the event of a draw in both games, Netherlands and Japan will finish first and second, and be separated by highest goals scored (as they are currently tied on goal difference). This means that to finish top, Japan need at least a 1-1 draw, and then if that's coupled with a Netherlands 0-0 draw, we advance to Fair Play points.
• Tunisia is confirmed as fourth place.
• This group hinges a lot on the variations of results in the two games, so rather than break down by team at this point (like Group C), I will break down by match combinations (except draw in both matches, because already outlined above)
  • Netherlands wins and Japan wins = Standard tie-breakers to separate Netherlands and Japan in top two, Sweden in third
  • Netherlands wins and Japan draws = Netherlands first, Japan second, Sweden third
  • Netherlands wins and Japan loses = Netherlands first, Sweden second, Japan third
  • Netherlands draws and Japan wins = Japan first, Netherlands second, Sweden third
  • Netherlands draws and Japan loses = Sweden first, Netherlands second, Sweden third
  • Netherlands loses and Japan wins OR draws = Japan first, Netherlands second, Sweden third
  • Netherlands loses and Japan loses = Sweden first, standard tie-breakers to separate Netherlands and Japan 2nd/3rd

Group G

• Again - This group hinges a lot on the variations of results in the two games, so rather than break down by team at this point (like Group C and F), I will break down by match combinations
  • Egypt wins and NZ wins = Egypt first, NZ second, Iran and Belgium separated by standard tie-breakers for 3rd/4th (but likely eliminated
  • Egypt wins and NZ/Belgium draw = Egypt first, Belgium second, NZ and Iran separated by standard tie-breakers for 3rd/4th (but likely eliminated)
  • Egypt wins and Belgium wins = Egypt first, Belgium second, Iran third (but likely eliminated), NZ fourth
  • Egypt/Iran draw and NZ wins = Egypt first, NZ second, Iran third, Belgium fourth
  • DRAW in both games = Egypt first and NZ fourth - but Iran and Belgium with the 2010 NZ treatment of 3 draws, so the score of the draws on the final matchday would matter (with Iran currently ahead with one more goal scored)
  • Egypt/Iran draw and Belgium wins = Egypt first, Belgium second, Iran third, NZ 4th
  • Iran wins and NZ wins = Iran first, Egypt second, NZ third, Belgium 4th
  • Iran wins and NZ/Belgium draw = Iran first, Egypt second Belgium third, NZ 4th
  • Iran wins and Belgium wins = Iran and Belgium 1st and 2nd, but separated by standard tie-breakers, Egypt third (and likely through), NZ 4th

Group H

• Again - This group hinges a lot on the variations of results in the two games, so rather than break down by team at this point (like Group C, F and G), I will break down by match combinations
  • Spain wins and Cape Verde wins = Spain 1st, Cape Verde 2nd, Uruguay 3rd (but likely eliminated), Saudi Arabia 4th
  • Spain wins and CV/Saudi draw = Spain 1st, Cape Verde 2nd, Uruguay and Saudi separated by standard tie-breakers for 3rd/4th (but likely eliminated - likely Uruguay 3rd due to SA goal difference, as Uruguay will need to lose by 4 to make that change
  • Spain wins and SA wins = Spain 1st, SA 2nd, Uruguay and Cape Verde separated by standard tie-breakers for 3rd/4th (but likely eliminated)
  • Spain/Uruguay draws and Cape Verde wins = Spain first, CV 2nd (swapped if CV defeat SA by 4+ goals), Uruguay 3rd, SA 4th
  • DRAW in both games = Spain 1st and SA 4th, but Uruguay and Cape Verde with the 2010 NZ treatment of 3 draws, so the score of the draws on the final matchday would matter (with Uruguay currently ahead with one more goal scored)
  • Spain/Uruguay draws and SA wins = Spain 1st, SA 2nd, Uruguay 3rd, CV 4th
  • Uruguay wins and CV wins = Uruguay and CV 1st and 2nd and separated by standard tie-breakers, Spain 3rd (but likely through) and Saudi Arabia 4th
  • Uruguay wins and CV/SA draw = Uruguay 1st, Spain 2nd, CV 3rd, SA 4th
  • Uruguay wins and SA win = Uruguay 1st, Spain 2nd, Saudi Arabia 3rd, Cape Verde 4th