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The annual NicCarBel TOURNAMENT PERMUTATIONS POST

NicCarBel

NicCarBel

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Oct 17, 2024
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I'm gonna pop in threads as needed because more eyeballs - but it's time to begin what is (probably) my annual PERMUTATIONS POST

Given the large amount of third placed teams that can make it - I will be doing this the old way (at first) in only seeking out who needs to do what to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in their group. It won't be until the final matchdays begin looking at which 3rd places can make it altogether.

I will be adding each group slowly as I sit down and look at groups, etc etc

Group A
  • Mexico is confirmed top of the group
  • South Korea will seal second place with a draw against South Africa
  • South Africa must win to have a shot at going into second, though it is not guaranteed, because
    • Defeating South Korea will jump them into second outright only if Czechia fail to defeat Mexico.
  • Czechia must defeat Mexico AND have South Korea lose to South Africa to possibly progress in second, as Czechia and South Africa will then be tied on points and head to head, so standard tie-breakers will then apply to separate 2nd and 3rd.
Group B
  • Canada will seal first place with a draw against Switzerland.
  • Switzerland will seal first place with a victory over Canada.
  • Bosnia & Herzegovina and Qatar must win to have a sniff at progressing in either first or second, but will need the Canada v Switzerland match to end in a result, and with scorelines their way. Scenarios possible (but not all of them) include:
    • BIH win and Switzerland win means Canada and BIH will need to be separated by standard tie-breakers due to being equal on head-to-head
    • BIH win and Canada win means Canada tops group, Switzerland being in second due to head-to-head result against BIH.
    • Qatar essentially has the same premise, but swap Canada and Switzerland
    • Essentially - BIH wants Switzerland to win, Qatar wants Canada to win - but Qatar or BIH must win their match as well, as a draw in Canada v Switzerland ensures Canada finishes top, and Switzerland finishes second.
Group C
  • Brazil and Morocco drew, so in the event of a draw in both games, Brazil will advance in first, Morocco second, and Scotland third
  • This group hinges a lot on the variations of results in the two games, so rather than break down by team, I will break down by match combinations (except draw in both matches, because already outlined above)
    • Brazil wins and Morocco wins = Goal difference to separate top two, Scotland in third
    • Brazil wins and Morocco fails to win = Brazil first, Morocco second, Scotland third
    • Brazil v Scotland draw and Morocco win = Morocco first, Brazil second, Scotland third
    • Brazil v Scotland draw and Morocco loss = Brazil first, Morocco second, Scotland third (as Morocco defeated Scotland)
    • Scotland win and Morocco win = Morocco first, Scotland second, Brazil third
    • Scotland win and Morocco draw = Scotland first, Morocco second, Brazil third
    • Scotland win and Morocco loss = Scotland first, Morocco and Brazil to be separated by standard tie-breakers
Group D
  • USA is confirmed as group winners
  • Turkey is confirmed as fourth place
  • The only match worth anything in this group is Paraguay v Australia
    • If Australia win or draw, they will progress in second place,
    • If Paraguay win, they will progress in second place.
Group E
  • Germany is confirmed as group winners
  • Ivory Coast will progress as second place with a draw in their match - as an Ecuador victory over Germany will then see Ivory Coast and Ecuador tied on points, and Ivory Coast is ahead on head-to-head
  • Ecuador and Curacao must win their respective matches to progress as second place, and have the other result go their way:
    • Both Ecuador and Curacao winning means they will finish second and third, and be separated by traditional tie-breakers
    • If Curacao fails to defeat Ivory Coast, and Ecuador at least draw with Germany, Ecuador will seal third place (but will likely be eliminated unless it's a victory).
    • If Curacao defeats Ivory Coast, and Ecuador fails to defeat Germany, Curacao will progress as second place, and Ivory Coast will finish in third.
Group F
  • Netherlands and Japan drew, so in the event of a draw in both games, Netherlands and Japan will finish first and second, and be separated by highest goals scored (as they are currently tied on goal difference). This means that to finish top, Japan need at least a 1-1 draw, and then if that's coupled with a Netherlands 0-0 draw, we advance to Fair Play points.
  • Tunisia is confirmed as fourth place.
  • This group hinges a lot on the variations of results in the two games, so rather than break down by team at this point (like Group C), I will break down by match combinations (except draw in both matches, because already outlined above)
    • Netherlands wins and Japan wins = Standard tie-breakers to separate Netherlands and Japan in top two, Sweden in third
    • Netherlands wins and Japan draws = Netherlands first, Japan second, Sweden third
    • Netherlands wins and Japan loses = Netherlands first, Sweden second, Japan third
    • Netherlands draws and Japan wins = Japan first, Netherlands second, Sweden third
    • Netherlands draws and Japan loses = Sweden first, Netherlands second, Sweden third
    • Netherlands loses and Japan wins OR draws = Japan first, Netherlands second, Sweden third
    • Netherlands loses and Japan loses = Sweden first, standard tie-breakers to separate Netherlands and Japan 2nd/3rd
Group G
  • Again - This group hinges a lot on the variations of results in the two games, so rather than break down by team at this point (like Group C and F), I will break down by match combinations
    • Egypt wins and NZ wins = Egypt first, NZ second, Iran and Belgium separated by standard tie-breakers for 3rd/4th (but likely eliminated
    • Egypt wins and NZ/Belgium draw = Egypt first, Belgium second, NZ and Iran separated by standard tie-breakers for 3rd/4th (but likely eliminated)
    • Egypt wins and Belgium wins = Egypt first, Belgium second, Iran third (but likely eliminated), NZ fourth
    • Egypt/Iran draw and NZ wins = Egypt first, NZ second, Iran third, Belgium fourth
    • DRAW in both games = Egypt first and NZ fourth - but Iran and Belgium with the 2010 NZ treatment of 3 draws, so the score of the draws on the final matchday would matter (with Iran currently ahead with one more goal scored)
    • Egypt/Iran draw and Belgium wins = Egypt first, Belgium second, Iran third, NZ 4th, unless Belgium wins by 3
    • Iran wins and NZ wins = Iran first, Egypt second, NZ third, Belgium 4th
    • Iran wins and NZ/Belgium draw = Iran first, Egypt second Belgium third, NZ 4th
    • Iran wins and Belgium wins = Iran and Belgium 1st and 2nd, but separated by standard tie-breakers, Egypt third (and likely through), NZ 4th
Group H
  • Again - This group hinges a lot on the variations of results in the two games, so rather than break down by team at this point (like Group C, F and G), I will break down by match combinations
    • Spain wins and Cape Verde wins = Spain 1st, Cape Verde 2nd, Uruguay 3rd (but likely eliminated), Saudi Arabia 4th
    • Spain wins and CV/Saudi draw = Spain 1st, Cape Verde 2nd, Uruguay and Saudi separated by standard tie-breakers for 3rd/4th (but likely eliminated - likely Uruguay 3rd due to SA goal difference, as Uruguay will need to lose by 4 to make that change
    • Spain wins and SA wins = Spain 1st, SA 2nd, Uruguay and Cape Verde separated by standard tie-breakers for 3rd/4th (but likely eliminated)
    • Spain/Uruguay draws and Cape Verde wins = Spain first, CV 2nd (swapped if CV defeat SA by 4+ goals), Uruguay 3rd, SA 4th
    • DRAW in both games = Spain 1st and SA 4th, but Uruguay and Cape Verde with the 2010 NZ treatment of 3 draws, so the score of the draws on the final matchday would matter (with Uruguay currently ahead with one more goal scored)
    • Spain/Uruguay draws and SA wins = Spain 1st, SA 2nd, Uruguay 3rd, CV 4th
    • Uruguay wins and CV wins = Uruguay and CV 1st and 2nd and separated by standard tie-breakers, Spain 3rd (but likely through) and Saudi Arabia 4th
    • Uruguay wins and CV/SA draw = Uruguay 1st, Spain 2nd, CV 3rd, SA 4th
    • Uruguay wins and SA win = Uruguay 1st, Spain 2nd, Saudi Arabia 3rd, Cape Verde 4th
 
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On the subject of third place advancements - this is the current table

1782103532855.png
Only BIH is confirmed to be outside of the 4 at the end of matchday 2
 
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Group I
  • France and Norway together have sealed first and second, with Senegal and Iraq resigned to third and fourth
  • The winner of France v Norway will progress as first place, with the loser in second - unless it is a draw, where France will take top spot.
  • The winner of Senegal v Iraq will take third place in the group - unless it is a draw, where Senegal will take third spot (though, very, very, very likely not advance in that instance). The only real chance at progression from third for either team is to win the match.
 
Group J
  • Argentina has sealed top spot, with Jordan confirmed in 4th place
  • For Austria and Algeria, it is the exact same situation as Australia and Paraguay in Group D - with Austria in Australia's situation, and Algeria in Paraguay's
Group K
  • Colombia has sealed a top 2 position.
  • Portugal will can only be knocked out of the top 2 by:
    • Losing to Colombia, AND
    • DR Congo defeating Uzbekistan, WITH a combined 7 goal turnaround (or 6 goal turnaround if DRC can score 5+ goals)
  • Uzbekistan can only advance by being one of the best 8 third-placed nations, and must defeat DR Congo to do so
  • DR Congo is assured of third place in the group with a draw (though likely eliminated)
    • A win over Uzbekistan will see them likely advance as one of the best 8 third-placed nations, unless the scenario of overcoming Portugal above takes place.
Group L
I'm actually about to head to an event, so will finish this shortly, but it is the same scenario as both Groups C and F (except for GD), with England in the Netherlands/Brazil scenario, Ghana in the Japan/Morocco scenario, and Croatia in the Sweden/Scotland scenario
 
Now comes the part where I'll look at third places - and I'm probably going to do this specifically for Socceroos. I'm going to assume they lose to Paraguay for this to be a thing. So for Socceroos to lose AND qualify for the 32, we'd need 4 of the scenarios below to happen. This does not cover all scenarios, but merely the most simple ones (ie, ones that don't pertain to goal difference unless we are already at that point).
  • Group A
    • Both Czechia and South Africa failing to win their match
  • Group B
    • Both Bosnia & Herzergovina and Qatar failing to win their match
  • Group C
    • Scotland to lose by either a higher margin than us, or by the same margin but without scoring more goals than us.
  • Group E
    • Ivory Coast to lose by either a higher margin than us, or by the same margin but scoring less goals (eg, we lose 2-1, but they lose 1-0), OR
    • Both Ecuador and Curacao failing to win their match
  • Group F
    • Sweden to lose by a higher margin than us, or by the same margin with us scoring 5 goals more (eg, we lose 7-6, but they lose 1-0)
  • Group G
    • Egypt to defeat Iran, AND
    • New Zealand to defeat Belgium
  • Group H
    • Spain to defeat Uruguay, AND
    • Saudi Arabia to defeat Cape Verde
  • Group I
    • Senegal to defeat Iraq by up to 2 goals more than our loss to Paraguay (eg if Senegal win 1-0, we can lose by up to 3), we progress OR
    • Iraq to defeat Senegal by up to 5 goals more than our loss to Paraguay (eg if Iraq win 1-0, we can lose by up to 5-0), OR
    • Senegal and Iraq draw
  • Group J
    • Austria to defeat Algeria, OR
    • Algeria to lose by either a higher margin than us, or by the same margin but scoring less goals (eg, we lose 2-1, but they lose 1-0)
  • Group K
    • DR Congo and Uzbekistan to draw, OR
    • Uzbekistan to defeat DR Congo by up to 6 goals more than our loss to Paraguay
  • Group L
    • Croatia to lose by a higher or same margin than our loss to Paraguay
Please feel free to poke any holes - it's 1am and I'm tired but not asleep, so may have some things a bit wrong.
 
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So if we finish 2nd in our group we'll play 2nd from group G, which could be any of those four nations (Egypt, Iran, Belgium, New Zealand).

If we finish 3rd we'll play either Germany, the winner from group I (France/Norway), or the winner from group K (Colombia/Portugal).

Is that right?

I'm not sure who I'd rather play out of that.

We probably want to avoid France/Norway because if we get past them we'll probably end up against Germany next anyway.

If we're runner-up in our group, we'll probably be against Argentina next, again not great.

I think our best bet might be the 3rd Group of D/E/I/J/L getting through. That would put us up against Colombia/Portugal and then likely the winner of group B (Canada/Switzerland). Get past that and it's Argentina again! But at least if would be one round later.

Just seen that Ecuador would have to beat Germany for our best scenario to happen, so that's unlikely. If Paraguay beat us then it practically a lock that we'll play Germany in the 32.

Either way, we're hitting Germany or Argentina pretty quickly 🙁
 
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Something I totally overlooked was what if South Africa thump South Korea? Let's say 5:0. RSA are on 4 points and South Korea 3rd on 3 with a negative GD.
 
Let's hope tonight we can get at least 2 of the 4 done. No win for Czech Rep or RSA. Scotland to pose heavily although I wish them well.

A Bosnia Qatar draw would be golden.

We're going to know a lot before we kick off so let's say 2 tonight then Ecuador don't beat Germany and Curaçao don't win.

Hopefully Japan can dent Sweden nicely.
 
The vast majority of pathways if we finish 3rd is Germany. I haven't checked the exact group combinations but I think the early groups being eliminated will cut out a lot of the non Germany options anyway.

We'll have some clarity in 10 hours.
 
The group G final day is going to be up and down. You'd expect NZ to be defeated but the Belgium goal total and then possible back and forth between Egypt and Iran makes it exciting.

Once we know our fate we'd hope for a big Belgium win and Egypt don't win.
 
Median using the current 3rd place table as how it could nearly finish are delusional. There are guaranteed points to come and a lot of games with very likely results.
 
From looking at what's gone on today - Scotland likely gone, which essentially consigns us to Germany should we lose to Paraguay and get through.

Bosnia confirmed ahead of us. As noted earlier by someone, a 1-0 to Paraguay will mean we finish equal with Korea and be decided on fair play points - though a 1 goal loss where we score will see us ahead on goals scored.

Scotland already 7th of the 3rd placed nations, with 9 to play - so to finish ahead of them, we'd need no worse than a 3 goal loss
 
well - doesn't that sound comforting not to suffer a 3zip loss lol......
and we get through likely face the germans hahaha
All I'm seeing is red flags worse than a red card hehe
 
Something has mathematically come through that Bosnia will advance.
 
JS96 said:
Something has mathematically come through that Bosnia will advance.
Click to expand...
Could be true - there's 2 completed groups they are ahead of. And they will finish ahead of Group I (as Senegal or Iraq will finish 3rd on no more than 3 points), so that's 3.

I'm not sure who the 4th one is though. Could be Group K, Congo?
 
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JS96 said:
Something has mathematically come through that Bosnia will advance.
Click to expand...

NicCarBel said:
Could be true - there's 2 completed groups they are ahead of. And they will finish ahead of Group I (as Senegal or Iraq will finish 3rd on no more than 3 points), so that's 3.

I'm not sure who the 4th one is though. Could be Group K, Congo?
Click to expand...
Ahhh it's our group.

If we win, Paraguay will be behind them in points.
If Paraguay win, we will be behind them in points
If we draw, Paraguay will be behind them in GD
 
Scotland not official out despite a Cape Verde Saudi result overtaking them. Their hope lies with a few other things including heavy losses for Croatia and Algeria.
 
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