World cup 2026 Draw

[patjennings]

So the simulator does not take that into account

 

[JS96]

Australia just drew norway and brazil in my simulator :S

1998 style! Norway beat Brazil that time. I made a speech in year 4 about the opening games.

 

[JS96]

Oh Vegemite just dropped onto my screen. It's an omen!

 

[JS96]

So can we have a group without a UEFA team?

Should be able to. If I've read correctly UEFA will inevitably be in every group.

 

[JS96]

Some really cracking groups are possible but it may end a bit like 24 team tournaments where a whipping boy is discounted and then the others want to ensure to make it through in third.

 

[NicCarBel]

Should be able to. If I've read correctly UEFA will inevitably be in every group.

No - there is a note in the procedure that each group must have at least one UEFA nation - as @patjennings noted - this is something the simulator doesn’t pick up

 

[JS96]

That's some pretty wild maths though for the intercontinental. So many potential winners that it should narrow things down really quickly.

 

[JS96]

No - there is a note in the procedure that each group must have at least one UEFA nation - as @patjennings noted - this is something the simulator doesn’t pick up

Is inevitably a must? Just about to return to my English class. I think I read something about 2 UEFA teams.

But surely the Playoff teams light up very few slots when we get that far.

 

[JS96]

@Nic. It was a strong should

I just hope they don't try to explain it on TV and just draw and the computer sorts it. I'd laugh so hard if the program crashes.

 

[NicCarBel]

Is inevitably a must? Just about to return to my English class. I think I read something about 2 UEFA teams.

But surely the Playoff teams light up very few slots when we get that far.

yeah it’s a weird thing where they have put it in the draw specifically, but noting how some people’s simulations have turned out, if they didn’t explicitly say “at least one UEFA nation”, there would be a possibility of it occurring:

FIFA’s general principle, whenever possible, is to ensure that no group has more than one team from the same confederation drawn into it. This is applicable to all confederations except UEFA, which is represented by 16 teams.

Each group must have at least one, but no more than two UEFA teams drawn into it. Thus, four out of the 12 groups will contain two of the 16 UEFA teams (including the four play-off
placeholders).

 

[NicCarBel]

But surely the Playoff teams light up very few slots when we get that far.

Yes, I would say that’s the case. Depending how my night goes (or tomorrow), I’m going to legit do a manual draw simulation - paper slips and all (something I haven’t done since 2006) to just look at things like that

 

[Alex M]

Are you sure it wasn't France instead of Argentina??

If you think of it as holders, Tunisia and Denmark its the same as last time.

 

[JS96]

I'll throw my beer at the TV if we get any 2 teams from last time. It's bloody boring.

 

[grazorblade]

Japan and Saudi Arabia in qualifying
denmark and france in the group stages. You know its hapening

 

[NicCarBel]

Japan and Saudi Arabia in qualifying
denmark and france in the group stages. You know its hapening

I wonder what the record is (including, and not including Oceania - but definitely excluding South America) for most consecutive World Cup campaigns playing the same nations

 

[JS96]

Got to think about how other teams are looking at pots thinking Japan, Paraguay and Ghana linger.

We're going to see at least one massive and another incredibly weak group based on probability.

 

[jas88]

got a good draw in the simulator on this one

 

[booney52]

The Group of Death-Brazil,Australia,Norway,Italy..That came to me in a dream( probably a nightmare).

 

[NicCarBel]

Yes, I would say that’s the case. Depending how my night goes (or tomorrow), I’m going to legit do a manual draw simulation - paper slips and all (something I haven’t done since 2006) to just look at things like that

Just for noting:
UEFA A = UEFA Path A (Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales, Bosnia & Herzegovina)
UEFA B = Ukraine/Sweden/Poland/Albania
UEFA C = Turkey/Romania/Slovakia/Kosovo
UEFA B = Denmark/North Macedonia/Czechia/Republic of Ireland
FIFA 1 = DR Congo/Jamaica/New Caledonia
FIFA 2 = Iraq/Bolivia/Suriname

A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L
Mexico	Canada	Argentina	USA	Brazil	Netherlands	Spain	Germany	France	England	Belgium	Portugal
Qatar	UEFA B	Japan	Saudi Arabia	UEFA D	Uruguay	Algeria	FIFA 2	Colombia	Egypt	UEFA C	Korea
Senegal	Norway	Ghana	Austria	Panama	Jordan	Croatia	Tunisia	New Zealand	Ecuador	Uzbekistan	FIFA 1
UEFA A	Australia	Scotland	Cape Verde	Iran	Ivory Coast	Haiti	Switzerland	South Africa	Curacao	Morocco	Paraguay

Notes on skipping groups/procedure while I was doing it:

• I did have to draw and cross off a little bracket for the first pot to keep nations separate as per Appendix A - although in this running, everything naturally turned out to fit, so there was no need to skip groups over to ensure this principle was adhered to.
• Uruguay drawn for Brazil's group - was skipped into Netherlands' group instead. Iran then drawn next, so placed with Brazil
• No groups skipped over in Pot 3 - although with Uzbekistan and Paraguay as the last two, they became set in stone due to the already placed Pot 2 nations in those groups.
• After Pots 1-3 were drawn, this is what it looked like in terms of "Green Lights"
  • Group A - UEFA Playoff Nations only
  • Group B - Cape Verde, Ghana, New Zealand or UEFA
  • Group C - Cape Verde, Ghana, New Zealand, FIFA Playoff 1 or UEFA
  • Group D - Cape Verde, Ghana, New Zealand or UEFA
  • Group E - UEFA Playoff Nations only
  • Group F - Jordan, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand or UEFA
  • Group G - Jordan, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand or FIFA Playoff 2
  • Group H - Jordan, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand or FIFA Playoff 2
  • Group I - Jordan, Curacao, Haiti. New Zealand or UEFA
  • Group J - Jordan, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand or UEFA
  • Group K - Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand or UEFA
  • Group L - Cape Verde, Ghana, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand, FIFA Playoff 1 or UEFA
• Jordan drawn initially for Group B - placed into Group F due to intercontinental constraints. UEFA B then drawn into Group B
• Haiti drawn initially for Group E - placed into Group G due to intercontinental constraints. FIFA 2 drawn next, then placed into Group H due to intercontinental restraints. UEFA D then finally placed into Group E.
• At this point, it became clear that both Ghana and FIFA 1 could only be drawn into the final Group (Group L). As fate would have it, they were the last two left. FIFA 1 was drawn first, and placed into Group L. Ghana was then swapped with UEFA C (drawn initially for Group C), as the most recently drawn group that it was eligible for, that it's replacement was also eligible to be swapped into Group K.

This is the first simulation I've done that adheres to the 'all groups must have at least one UEFA nation' and also ensuring all other principles for the draw.

 

[Davor20]

Japan and Saudi Arabia in qualifying
denmark and france in the group stages. You know its hapening

I wonder what the record is (including, and not including Oceania - but definitely excluding South America) for most consecutive World Cup campaigns playing the same nations

At the finals themselves, haven't Argentina and Nigeria gone at it a few times?