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World Cup 2026 Australia thread

Many argue that using head-to-head (H2H) results as the primary tie-breaker is worse (less fair/logical) than using goal difference (GD) because H2H focuses on limited matches, potentially ignoring overall season performance and creating opportunities for collusion, while GD reflects a team's total performance across all games, making it a more holistic measure.
 
We'll know so much more about our own group by the time we play Paraguay. We'll probably know little about the potential 3rd placed rankings as many other groups need to finish.

There's got the be some maths with H2H in that the latter second group game will know that victory there may secure advancement.

Asian youth tournaments often see chasing teams able to catch points and GD but the opponent order puts a big line through it due to H2H. We may see a lot of teams with nothing to play for in their final game.
 
Opening game excellent time for Australia.
 
Just chuckled as your name is Graham, right?

A good thing as past tournaments we felt the fitness pinch.
 
grazorblade said:
big gaps between games. No need to rotate actually
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The only reason there are large gaps between games is to account for travel time and allow the players to acclimatise to the conditions, so we may still need to rotate for our first two group games but we can essentially play a second-string squad against Paraguay, assuming we've already secured our spot in the knockouts.
 
I doubt 3 points will be enough for 3rd advancement especially when others play later and if the picture is clear that 4 will be enough for both then they'll gladly play out a draw.

USA Paraguay to open is really interesting and if it's a draw then our first match will present itself as a golden chance to get ahead. If we win the first game H2H kind of becomes redundant as losing to the others would generally mean non equal points in end.

Interesting to note that 2022 aside, our second opponent was coming off a win.
 
Alex M said:
5AM is better than 1AM but I would have preferred a couple of hours later. Not sure why our game with the USA is European Prime time though. Maybe they thought it was Austria when they did the schedule.
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Hoping to see some serious limbs
 
Not sure which predictor sites considered H2H as a tie break. Just did an example where Australia best Paraguay 2:0 but lose to USA 1:0 and stupid H2H applies despite GD being higher. I imagine we'll see more cautious play but teams want to secure wins regardless.
 
HappyGuus said:
Would be a shame for them to finish last in the group

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Not sure if they are favourites, but it would almost certainly be the weakest group they have been in. A combination of the increased WC alongside them being seeded in pot 1 as hosts.
 
As already posted (by me) in the World Cup draw thread

Those looking to the Round of 32 would see that there are 5 possible Round of 32 fixtures that Group D teams may qualify for
Match 74: June 29 Boston - Winner Group E vs Best 3rd place Group A/B/C/D/F
Match 77: June 30 NY - Winner Group I vs Best 3rd place Group C/D/F/G/H
Match 81: July 1 San Francisco (no travel after last Group stage game) - Winner Group D vs Best 3rd place Group B/E/F/I/J
Match 87: July 3 Kansas City - Winner Group K vs Best 3rd place Group D/E/I/J/L
Match 88: July 3 Dallas - Runner-up Group D vs Runner-up Group G

Being Group Runner Up is a set opponent (tbd) and a set city (Dallas) who we will know as at the 25 June as Groupd D and G play on the same day.

Bring Group Winner is a set city (San Francisco) which we will know as at the 25 June and an opponent who we will know as at June 27 when the best 8 third placed teams are allocated at the completion of the Group Stage.

Being 3rd placed means that within the 495 possible combinations of 8 third place getters, there are 330 combinations where the Group D 3rd place getter qualifies for the Round of 32. Whoever finishes 3rd would only find out which of the 3 potential cities they play in on the 27th and may need to play on the 29th, which for Australia means potentially staying in SF after the Paraguay game and travelling on the 28th, or taking a punt and flying to the East Coast on the 26th if we finish 3rd and if necessary travelling again closer to the game.

The table for opponents for both the Group Winner and 3rd Place team are as follows
1D (vs 495 combos) 3rd D (vs 330 combos)
vs 3B (329, 66.5%) vs 1E BOSTON (212, 64.2%)
vs 3J (64, 12.9%) vs 1I NEW YORK (99, 30.0%)
vs 3I (52, 10.5%) vs 1K KC (19, 5.8%)
vs 3E (39, 7.9%)
vs 3F (11, 2.2%)

Top Seeds in Groups E, I and K are Germany, France and Portugal so if they top their groups they would be tough opposition.

Group B is the Canada Qatar Switzerland EUFA (Italy* top seeded for March playoffs) group and Group G is Belgium Iran Egypt NZ.

So a 67% chance of Canada/Qatar/Switzerland/? in San Francisco if first, a 100% chance of Belgium/Iran/Egypt/NZ in Dallas if second, and a 64% of Germany/Ecuador/Ivory Coast/Curacao in Boston as a top 8 ranked best 3rd placed team.

There are so many ifs buts and maybes but even with the expanded format finishing top 2 in our Group is super important to knowing the next city quickly and moving forward. For teams in Groups G-L finishing 3rd becomes a better (but still risky) safety net if the maths work in their favour.

Personally I would be ecstatic to move on regardless, so hopefully I can reference this in 6 months after we have wrapped up progression and are primed for a cup run for the ages.
 
Keeper66 said:
What a load of crap. Just more American influence. Judge the need for hydration breaks on the game conditions on the day, with set criteria (temperature, rh)
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Geez I wish UEFA along with another confederation or 2 would breakaway and form another World Cup. If Europe and South America said we're off, the World cup would collapse as we know it.

They've basically taken stamina out of the game, they've jammed in ad breaks, they're talking about a 64 team world cup, Infantino is the world's biggest flog.

What's the bet the next thing they cave on is advertising on the field. There's fuckheads in FIFA thinking about that right now don't worry about that.
 
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