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Poppa Out

grazorblade said:
The goal keeping positions also seem to be the weakest in the mls too!

Dortmund might be easy to get into, but id be pretty excited if a 2008 born aussie attacker got regular game this year!
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Nestory Irankunda was born in 2006 and shouldn’t be too far off that level to be honest. Maybe a season or two. It sounds ridiculous but Dortmund really aren’t as good as they used to be. They would be probably sixth at best in the Prem.
 
grazorblade said:
Yes im saying expected results are well determined by squad value

60 percent in the variance in world cup results can be explained by squad value in fact. For a comparison, 15 percent of the variance in life expectancy amongst smokers can be explained by how many cigarettes they have a day. 60 percent is a lot!

You can always find valuable squads that overperform and others that underperform, just like you can find chain smokers that live to 100 and health nuts who die at 60. Thats just the messiness of life

But in the end the quality of our squad is still our weakest link and our last three coaches have punched above their weight and added value to the squad.

I expect our squad to improve a lot by 2030, but to still be weak by world cup standards
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I also subscribe to the school of thought that Australian players are inherently undervalued because of the passport they carry, which I would say is a confounding factor in your theory. Plenty of our players would be valued a whole lot higher if nationality were not a factor.

I'd also say that we'll have to agree to disagree that Popovic has allowed this team to punch above our weight. I'd argue the complete opposite, that he's a lead weight holding these players back from what they could be with his negative ultra-conservative approach. If he was successful in us punching above our weight, there'd be games in amongst those 11 against top 40 sides that we won and deserved to win on the balance of play. I don't think that's the case for any of those 11.
 
HonestSpursFan said:
Nestory Irankunda was born in 2006 and shouldn’t be too far off that level to be honest. Maybe a season or two. It sounds ridiculous but Dortmund really aren’t as good as they used to be. They would be probably sixth at best in the Prem.
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6th best in the premierleague at 2 years younger than irankunda who is playing in the championship is incredible

Im hopeful that irankunda can play half a dozen seasons for a mid table big 5 club after 2 or 3 more seasons honing his game. In particular he needs to improve his decision making

He has a lot of lazy passes after making a run in transition. If the killer ball or the killer shot is available he can often turnover the ball

He also needs to make better decisions with his long range shooting. Sometimes he doesnt shoot when he does and sometimes he shoots when he shouldnt (particularly when a defender blocks his shot)

He also needs to learn defensive structures better unless he gets so good at attack that his defensive decisions dont matter
 
verrelli said:
I also subscribe to the school of thought that Australian players are inherently undervalued because of the passport they carry, which I would say is a confounding factor in your theory. Plenty of our players would be valued a whole lot higher if nationality were not a factor.

I'd also say that we'll have to agree to disagree that Popovic has allowed this team to punch above our weight. I'd argue the complete opposite, that he's a lead weight holding these players back from what they could be with his negative ultra-conservative approach. If he was successful in us punching above our weight, there'd be games in amongst those 11 against top 40 sides that we won and deserved to win on the balance of play. I don't think that's the case for any of those 11.
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After 20 years watching aussies abroad I cant agree with the theory that aussies are playing at a lower level than their talent justifies unfortunately.

Im not saying there isnt any bias (and a league clubs could do more to get more money), but i dont think its enough to explain why we have players at the level we do. This should improve a bit in the next 4 years

I think every top 40 ranked sides we have played has been better on paper than us, often by a large margin :(
 
grazorblade said:
6th best in the premierleague at 2 years younger than irankunda who is playing in the championship is incredible

Im hopeful that irankunda can play half a dozen seasons for a mid table big 5 club after 2 or 3 more seasons honing his game. In particular he needs to improve his decision making

He has a lot of lazy passes after making a run in transition. If the killer ball or the killer shot is available he can often turnover the ball

He also needs to make better decisions with his long range shooting. Sometimes he doesnt shoot when he does and sometimes he shoots when he shouldnt (particularly when a defender blocks his shot)

He also needs to learn defensive structures better unless he gets so good at attack that his defensive decisions dont matter
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Nestory Irankunda definitely has the potential to make it in the Big Five European leagues after a couple more seasons plying his trade in the Championship but he also needs to work on his discipline in addition to decision making because if he doesn't lock in and keep his head level then he's prone to receiving yellow cards or even being sent off.
 
grazorblade said:
After 20 years watching aussies abroad I cant agree with the theory that aussies are playing at a lower level than their talent justifies unfortunately.

Im not saying there isnt any bias (and a league clubs could do more to get more money), but i dont think its enough to explain why we have players at the level we do. This should improve a bit in the next 4 years

I think every top 40 ranked sides we have played has been better on paper than us, often by a large margin :(
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Not that they're playing at a lower level than their talent justifies but that their $ value / transfer fee is less than what it would be for the exact same player if they were European.

I don't know about that. You rate the Canadian or Paraguayan side as being stronger than us on paper. Even Egypt had 8 of their starting 11 from the Egypt league and a 9th player from Qatar league. 2 superstars but the rest are far from it.
 
verrelli said:
Not that they're playing at a lower level than their talent justifies but that their $ value / transfer fee is less than what it would be for the exact same player if they were European.

I don't know about that. You rate the Canadian or Paraguayan side as being stronger than us on paper. Even Egypt had 8 of their starting 11 from the Egypt league and a 9th player from Qatar league. 2 superstars but the rest are far from it.
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Have u ever watched the egyptian league? Yes paraguay and canada are better than us on paper, though we might catch up in the next few years
 
verrelli said:
I also subscribe to the school of thought that Australian players are inherently undervalued because of the passport they carry, which I would say is a confounding factor in your theory. Plenty of our players would be valued a whole lot higher if nationality were not a factor.

I'd also say that we'll have to agree to disagree that Popovic has allowed this team to punch above our weight. I'd argue the complete opposite, that he's a lead weight holding these players back from what they could be with his negative ultra-conservative approach. If he was successful in us punching above our weight, there'd be games in amongst those 11 against top 40 sides that we won and deserved to win on the balance of play. I don't think that's the case for any of those 11.
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I disagree with you. We punch well above our weight in terms of player ability, and have since Arnie took over. We have a weaker roster than most of the nations ranked around where we are. Our roster is more like a top 50 team than a top 30 team. Popovic only coaches this set of players a handful of times per year. If they were as good as you think they are more of them would be playing at a higher level where they are coached by different people. We have what we have, a group of players who play in lower level competitions, some of them not that regularly even there, who match teams with players that play at a higher level.
 
grazorblade said:
I liked when arnie took the reigns of the olyroos

Maybe I'm a bogan, but the olympics are a big deal to me
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I’ve heard some people suggest over the years that the Socceroos coach shouldn’t be at the Olyroos’ helm when they’re at the Olympics; that it’d be prudent to have a youth-football specialist in charge instead.

That being said, in all(bar one) our Olympic mens' ⚽️ appearances we’ve been coached by the Socceroos gaffer of the day - the exception being Arnie for Beijing '08 in lieu of Pim Verbeek.
 
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Alex M said:
I disagree with you. We punch well above our weight in terms of player ability, and have since Arnie took over. We have a weaker roster than most of the nations ranked around where we are. Our roster is more like a top 50 team than a top 30 team. Popovic only coaches this set of players a handful of times per year. If they were as good as you think they are more of them would be playing at a higher level where they are coached by different people. We have what we have, a group of players who play in lower level competitions, some of them not that regularly even there, who match teams with players that play at a higher level.
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As oxymoronic as this will sound, IMHO both your take and Verrelli’s are true at once to their respective extents.
 
riquelmes_laces said:
I’m looking at Milligan when I read this, but we wouldn’t dare would we? Post Asia Cup, results dependent.

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Post-Asian Cup we’ve no business giving the job to an (effectively)interim-manager, and I die on the hill that’s it’s still much too soon for Millsy to take the job now. His time will come no doubt, but not anytime soon.

Besides, for further context Forlán retired 2-3 years before Millsy and has a 2-year coaching-career headstart on him.
 
Milligan was player/coach at Southend utd as kind of a transition to coaching,
He is inexperienced for the National role but on the flip side should he kick on we won't be able to pay his worth

I wish Tommy Oar would kick on with his badges and have a go he talks allot of sense.
 
BA81 said:
Post-Asian Cup we’ve no business giving the job to an (effectively)interim-manager, and I die on the hill that’s it’s still much too soon for Millsy to take the job now. His time will come no doubt, but not anytime soon.

Besides, for further context Forlán retired 2-3 years before Millsy and has a 2-year coaching-career headstart on him.
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Very fare comments.
 
BA81 said:
Post-Asian Cup we’ve no business giving the job to an (effectively)interim-manager, and I die on the hill that’s it’s still much too soon for Millsy to take the job now. His time will come no doubt, but not anytime soon.

Besides, for further context Forlán retired 2-3 years before Millsy and has a 2-year coaching-career headstart on him.
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As good as Milligan was that team was built over a couple of seasons by Stanton. It will be interesting to see how he follows up having to follow up after the squad has been decimated.

To put it in context, Montgomery built his team through bringing in 13 players from the academy and then manager at CCMFC. He then lost
Garang Kuol, Nectarios Triantis,, Yaren Sozer, Anthony Pavlesic, Lachlan Bayliss, James Bayliss, Jason Cummings, Sammy Silvera, Beni Nkololo, Moresche, James McGarry, Marco Tulio and Cameron Windust before he went to Hibs.

Jackson came in and had to rebuild to win the treble before then losing Angel Torres, Danny Vukovic, Ronald Barcellos, Jing Reec, Dan Hall, Max Balard, Josh Nisbet, Jacob Farrell and Dylan Wenzell-Halls.

Let Milligan show that he can build a squad and perform again, he is still young and has done well, but now comes the hard part, molding his own squad having lost Lachlan Bayliss, Lachlan Rose, Ben Gibson, Clayton Taylor, Kosta Grozos, Kota Mizunamu, Noah James, Mark Natta, Lucas Scicluna, Bert Van Dorssen, Christian Bracco and Eli Adams
.
 
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Milligan got the best out of Max Burgess when no other coach could, he is well worth the punt if he can do the same with some of the other Newy signings.

It could go horribly wrong though, not the same time to work with a national team vs club football which in my opinion is the biggest risk with possession coaches.
 
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