Poppa Out

[onedaywinners...]

Dreamers - with all due respect.

By 2030
Nisbet
Milligan.

Look at this way
Need a core plus subs the level of Vikings Morroco Verde heck even to Egypts level would be a good start.
Jap has been talked of a standard for years another but they got outed.
Lonnng way to go for out lot - long way and importantly young age need to be playing in EU for starters in top leagues.

It's happening.

In the next two cycles vast majority of our first XI will be playing in top 5. No doubt.

 

[LFC]

It's happening.

In the next two cycles vast majority of our first XI will be playing in top 5. No doubt.

I’ll be most happy to be proven wrong when that time comes.
So around 10yrs eh ?
A lot got to happen in between

 

[onedaywinners...]

I’ll be most happy to be proven wrong when that time comes.
So around 10yrs eh ?
A lot got to happen in between

I mean it's reported that there may be at least 3 moving to big 5 clubs in the next few months...that's definitely a start!!

 

[patjennings]

I mean it's reported that there may be at least 3 moving to big 5 clubs in the next few months...that's definitely a start!!

It's not about moving to top 5. Years gone by we have a lot - but that was a different time, Now to be a home grown starter in one of those leagues is a rarity. Australians are competing with every other nation on Earth. The makeups of the leagues are quite different to 25-30 years ago.

The important thing is for each player to be playing consistently at the the highest level they can attain and then to improve and dominate at that level before stepping up again. If that is a top 5 league that is great and makes the managers job easier. But moving to a top 5 club and sitting on the pine and being loaned to lower tier clubs is not. Cases in point - Gauci to Villa, Kuol to Newcastle United, Irankunda to Bayern, Langerak and Amini to Dortmund, Jess Van Stratten to Juventus.

 

[patjennings]

Okon and scicluna are progressive

Curiously i dont think robbo is that progressive despite his technical excellence

TBH I know everyone talks about Okon's ball for the Irankunda goal but for me his first job was as a HM and for that he was well behind O'Neill. With his passing range, which sometimes goes astray when playing deeper, I would like to see him competing for AM positions with McGree and Volpato where there is more margin for error and more upside.

 

[LFC]

I mean it's reported that there may be at least 3 moving to big 5 clubs in the next few months...that's definitely a start!!

Getting signed is one thing ?!
Being a regular starter next many seasons is then proof in the pudding.
Don’t get ahead of yourself.

Correct patj.

 

[verrelli]

I get what you are saying, but its worth looking at the value of the starting xis in each match

Result	Australia starting xi value (in millions of euros)	Opponent xi's value
Australia 1 Egypt 1	44	83
Paraguay 0 Australia 0	50	56
Usa 2 Australia 0	30	179
Australia 2 Turkey 0	40	232
Switzerland 1 Australia 1	42	155
Mexico 1 Australia 0	31	60
Columbia 3 Australia 0	11	165
Usa 2 Australia 1	24	109
Australia 1 Canada 0	25	75

Then the two Japan games. There was not a single game against a top 40 where we were better on paper

I would argue that the only reason we are in the top 40 at all is because we have had 3 coaches in a row who are above our current level in quality (Ange, Arnie and Poppa) who were good at getting us to punch above our weight

that will change in a few years, but still not enough that we will be favourites against opponents in the top 30 and be able to play attacking football imo

yeah that's depressing to hear, but we need to fix our pathways if we want that to change

I can see the point you're making mate but personally I don't think you can correlate expected results with first 11 value. For example, Canada had a squad value 3 times higher than ours and yet we're ranked higher in the FIFA rankings. I don't think anyone felt that their team was considerably better than ours in line with what the team value indicates. Likewise, the Egypt team was almost double the value of our team but that is massively skewed by Salah and Marmoush. Almost all the others play in the Egypt league. If we're saying we shouldn't be expected to win based on the divergence in first 11 value, I think we're doing ourselves a gross disservice. The overall country ranking is a much better indicator I would say. One more example is that the Turkiye team was worth around 8 times more than us. Does that mean that if we lose 1-6 that we should be content with that because they've only managed to score 6 times as many goals as us despite being worth 8 times more? For me, we have to reference the overall FIFA (or ELO) rankings. For a team currently ranked 28th, we should be expecting to be very competitive with teams in the top 40. That has to be our yardstick. Not whether we're able to beat China. In those 11 matches against other top 40 teams just like we are (all currently ranked from 10th to 34th, with a midpoint of 22nd compared to our ranking of 28th), we've won only 3 of them, and each of those were classic textbook snatch and grabs. We have to stop being satisfied with that. As much as the results, the manner of how we've played some of those matches in such a meek and conservative way is just as disappointing.

 

[YdF]

For a light hearted suggestion on Sunday night before reality hits tomorrow morning may I suggest.

poppa out "King Otto" the honourary Greek in. What he did with that Greek squad was magic, whole lotta magic.

 

[HonestSpursFan]

Even Croatia as well, I rather learn from them than rather than Japan who have a different culture to us.

We are more similar to Norway excluding the winter of course lol!

I’d like to have Japan’s style of play and technique but as a model for success it’s probably too populous a country to base it off. Japan has over 123 million people to our over 28 million. Even Greater Tokyo has over 37 million people (which isn’t too far off Canada’s 41.5 million). Japan also lacks a strong contingent of dual internationals and has a declining population problem. The similarity is there with sports like baseball, martial arts and rugby union competing with soccer for attention, but overall our scenarios aren’t too similar other than our direct competition as Asian rivals.

Norway is probably the best comparison that’s been brought up. Like Australia, football shares attention with other sports (skiing and handball) even though it has the highest participation rate and is the most popular sport (in Australia it could actually be considered so by some measures too). Likewise, Norway is also more successful in women’s football than men’s, like how we have more success in women’s soccer than men’s given the price of investment. Although on the opposite end, Norway also has an extreme climate to adapt to (e.g. we have hydration breaks and later games, they don’t play in winter and have turf pitches). Norway, while not to the extent of Australia or nearby European countries, also has a high immigrant population and increasing immigration, with 18.2% of Norwegians being born overseas (still predominantly from European countries despite increasing refugee intake).

 

[grazorblade]

Look I really hope so. Think that after this WC some players will move up and hoping they get regular playing time. However even Cabo Verde was able to score more goals than us, and I think, will be corrected?, had only one less shot all WC, and a heap of their players play in nothing leagues, so while league is important maybe whatever CV was doing-coach?planning?etc can also help turn us around as I bet we have more players playing at a higher level than them

I guess the tricky part about referencing a country like cape verde is there will always be one crazy outlier, thats a beautiful thing about football

But vast majority of teams of the level of cape verde dont win the lottery and do a lot worse. Asking why we cant be cape verde is like asking why we cant win the lottery

 

[HonestSpursFan]

He's not really playing at a very high level. Needs to promote to Eredivisie

He really does. If all but the top four in the Eredivisie are Championship level, then the Eerste Divisie is probably League One level which is basically A-League level. If he can’t get a move in the Eredivisie then he should look elsewhere (maybe the BSL?).

 

[grazorblade]

I can see the point you're making mate but personally I don't think you can correlate expected results with first 11 value. For example, Canada had a squad value 3 times higher than ours and yet we're ranked higher in the FIFA rankings. I don't think anyone felt that their team was considerably better than ours in line with what the team value indicates. Likewise, the Egypt team was almost double the value of our team but that is massively skewed by Salah and Marmoush. Almost all the others play in the Egypt league. If we're saying we shouldn't be expected to win based on the divergence in first 11 value, I think we're doing ourselves a gross disservice. The overall country ranking is a much better indicator I would say. One more example is that the Turkiye team was worth around 8 times more than us. Does that mean that if we lose 1-6 that we should be content with that because they've only managed to score 6 times as many goals as us despite being worth 8 times more? For me, we have to reference the overall FIFA (or ELO) rankings. For a team currently ranked 28th, we should be expecting to be very competitive with teams in the top 40. That has to be our yardstick. Not whether we're able to beat China. In those 11 matches against other top 40 teams just like we are (all currently ranked from 10th to 34th, with a midpoint of 22nd compared to our ranking of 28th), we've won only 3 of them, and each of those were classic textbook snatch and grabs. We have to stop being satisfied with that. As much as the results, the manner of how we've played some of those matches in such a meek and conservative way is just as disappointing.

Yes im saying expected results are well determined by squad value

60 percent in the variance in world cup results can be explained by squad value in fact. For a comparison, 15 percent of the variance in life expectancy amongst smokers can be explained by how many cigarettes they have a day. 60 percent is a lot!

You can always find valuable squads that overperform and others that underperform, just like you can find chain smokers that live to 100 and health nuts who die at 60. Thats just the messiness of life

But in the end the quality of our squad is still our weakest link and our last three coaches have punched above their weight and added value to the squad.

I expect our squad to improve a lot by 2030, but to still be weak by world cup standards

 

[HonestSpursFan]

I think you need a full xi in either the big 5 or champions league level (e.g. psv) for attacking football to be a net positive.

I don’t entirely agree here. Some Championship teams are better than some Champions League teams. Even Qairat played in the UCL last season.

I guess for the next appointment fa have to decide if we get there by 2030. Curious if the forum thinks we will. Im hoping we do

Yeah, I think so. Midtable Champions League (e.g. Club Brugge, Feyenoord, Lille, etc) isn’t hard to get. That’s pretty much where America and Canada are at right now. America’s starting 11 against Belgium had players from (back to front) NYCFC, Villarreal, Crystal Palace, Charlotte FC, Fulham, Juventus, Bournemouth, Bayer Leverkusen, PSV Eindhoven, AS Monaco and AC Milan.

 

[grazorblade]

I don’t entirely agree here. Some Championship teams are better than some Champions League teams. Even Qairat played in the UCL last season.

Yeah, I think so. Midtable Champions League (e.g. Club Brugge, Feyenoord, Lille, etc) isn’t hard to get. That’s pretty much where America and Canada are at right now. America’s starting 11 against Belgium had players from (back to front) NYCFC, Villarreal, Crystal Palace, Charlotte FC, Fulham, Juventus, Bournemouth, Bayer Leverkusen, PSV Eindhoven, AS Monaco and AC Milan.

Yeah america was the minimum level needed to play attacking football but couldnt adapt when playing belgium to be more defensive. They are really impressive on paper apart from reams and the gk. We dont have anyone in pulicics class- it would be the equivalent of having a player born in 2008 get regular starts for dortmund in the upcoming season

 

[rebelliousfeminist974]

I’d like to have Japan’s style of play and technique but as a model for success it’s probably too populous a country to base it off. Japan has over 123 million people to our over 28 million. Even Greater Tokyo has over 37 million people (which isn’t too far off Canada’s 41.5 million). Japan also lacks a strong contingent of dual internationals and has a declining population problem. The similarity is there with sports like baseball, martial arts and rugby union competing with soccer for attention, but overall our scenarios aren’t too similar other than our direct competition as Asian rivals.

Norway is probably the best comparison that’s been brought up. Like Australia, football shares attention with other sports (skiing and handball) even though it has the highest participation rate and is the most popular sport (in Australia it could actually be considered so by some measures too). Likewise, Norway is also more successful in women’s football than men’s, like how we have more success in women’s soccer than men’s given the price of investment. Although on the opposite end, Norway also has an extreme climate to adapt to (e.g. we have hydration breaks and later games, they don’t play in winter and have turf pitches). Norway, while not to the extent of Australia or nearby European countries, also has a high immigrant population and increasing immigration, with 18.2% of Norwegians being born overseas (still predominantly from European countries despite increasing refugee intake).

Japan build their tactical system on cohesion and discipline though whereas both the Socceroos and Matildas are lacking in those fundamentals and the Norwegian league system implements promotion and relegation whereas we only have pro-rel in Member Federation competitions so we can't really compare our national team setups to them because of how the A-Leagues pale in comparison with regards to investment and the lack of full-time professionalisation in the Dub heading into season 2026-27.

 

[patjennings]

Yeah america was the minimum level needed to play attacking football but couldnt adapt when playing belgium to be more defensive. They are really impressive on paper apart from reams and the gk. We dont have anyone in pulicics class- it would be the equivalent of having a player born in 2008 get regular starts for dortmund in the upcoming season

Pulisic has been found out in two top 5 leagues and has a heart the size of a pea. His value to AC Milan is selling jerseys in the US and after his Rexona moment when he let the USA down - more with his comments than his game - that may well change.

Richards is a good 1 v 1 defender but struggles against multiple roaming defenders. We set up to play to his strength.

 

[HonestSpursFan]

Yeah america was the minimum level needed to play attacking football but couldnt adapt when playing belgium to be more defensive. They are really impressive on paper apart from reams and the gk.

Their goalkeeping has to be their weakest spot. All three of them play in the MLS. The MLS isn’t bad but it’s clearly the weakest league in that 11.

We dont have anyone in Pulišić's class- it would be the equivalent of having a player born in 2008 get regular starts for dortmund in the upcoming season

We used to in the Golden Gen but not currently. The only player we have who starts in a Big Five league is Ale Circati (Cristian Volpato didn’t start last season but probably will next season), and we can’t really compare a CB to a winger. He would be better than Tim Ream though, and given he’s still so young I think he’ll surpass his level (Fulham).

Interestingly, Dortmund is easier to get to than people think at the moment. They have good European performances but they always fall short in the Bundesliga and the gap only seems to be getting bigger. They lost the league to Bayern by 16 points last season, which is admittedly better than the 25 points the season before but it’s not even close to the old Bayern. Bayern losing by 18 points to Leverkusen only saw them get better. Mikey Moore from Spurs, who was at Rangers last season, is reportedly linked to a loan to Dortmund. He’s a good player but it’s telling if a top BL team is signing him on loan from a midtable Prem team.

 

[grazorblade]

Pulisic has been found out in two top 5 leagues and has a heart the size of a pea. His value to AC Milan is selling jerseys in the US and after his Rexona moment when he let the USA down - more with his comments than his game - that may well change.

Richards is a good 1 v 1 defender but struggles against multiple roaming defenders. We set up to play to his strength.

Pulicic has 64 goals in 288 big 5 league appearances
Kewell has 57 in 274 and is rightly our pride and joy, head and shoulders above the next best roo.

Im not saying this to discourage people, i want us to be motivated to produce better players. But we need to know our place to change our place imo

 

[HonestSpursFan]

Pulicic has 64 goals in 288 big 5 league appearances
Kewell has 57 in 274 and is rightly our pride and joy, head and shoulders above the next best roo.

League only or UCL?

 

[grazorblade]

Their goalkeeping has to be their weakest spot. All three of them play in the MLS. The MLS isn’t bad but it’s clearly the weakest league in that 11.

We used to in the Golden Gen but not currently. The only player we have who starts in a Big Five league is Ale Circati (Cristian Volpato didn’t start last season but probably will next season), and we can’t really compare a CB to a winger. He would be better than Tim Ream though, and given he’s still so young I think he’ll surpass his level (Fulham).

Interestingly, Dortmund is easier to get to than people think at the moment. They have good European performances but they always fall short in the Bundesliga and the gap only seems to be getting bigger. They lost the league to Bayern by 16 points last season, which is admittedly better than the 25 points the season before but it’s not even close to the old Bayern. Bayern losing by 18 points to Leverkusen only saw them get better. Mikey Moore from Spurs, who was at Rangers last season, is reportedly linked to a loan to Dortmund. He’s a good player but it’s telling if a top BL team is signing him on loan from a midtable Prem team.

The goal keeping positions also seem to be the weakest in the mls too!

Dortmund might be easy to get into, but id be pretty excited if a 2008 born aussie attacker got regular game this year!