Today on the radio (2GB) they said there expecting viewing numbers of around 8 million for the final and deciding match of State of Origin making the World Cup view-ship figures redundant. Prob be bigger then the world cup final tbh.
The final is on at 5am, and it won't involve Australia. Its viewership will be significantly less than the Aust v US figures and would, expectedly, be less than SOO.
Whether it is Socceroos World Cup games, State of Origin or AFL Grand Final, the difference in viewership largely pertains to how accessible the TV product is to the vast population who has little interest in the sport, but will watch it simply because it is seen as the thing to do. It is a huge market. It is the same reason as why SOO rates about 5x higher than a normal NRL game. The Socceroos results, in quite poor time slots, have been exceptional.
In terms of competition between codes, Rugby League has the advantage of having 4 major events across the year (3x Origin + GF), whereas AFL only has one major event (GF). Aside from the major events, AFL generally has a higher audience. Football has very limited exposure as its major events are international events and game schedules are not set up to suit Australian TV. Could you imagine the TV ratings if the Socceroos v USA was on at 7pm on a Wednesday evening and not 5am on a Sunday morning. The Women's World Cup showed the power of football when it gets a major event in a prime time spot.
By the way, from the data I can see the SOO figures look pretty consistent with last year. Game I reach and average was around 5.7m / 3.9m this year, which is similar to the 5.4m / 3.7m last year. Game II was 6.1m / 4.2m this year, last year was 6.1m / 4.2m (so pretty much the same). Game III last year was 5.7m / 3.9m. I may eat my words, but surely there is no way they would hit 8m. That is a growth of around 33% on game II, or 40% on Game III last year. I would struggle to see where in the market that growth would come from.
And for some comparison, Matilda's v England semi final was 11.1m / 7.1m.
