I was in a workshop at Football Tas HQ where this topic was raised with then Melb Vic coaching staff, when Kevin M was head coach.Talent is so hard to predict in the younger years. I remember reading Lyon's strategy during their extended run of success was to pick up guys who had done well as under 23s. This was a much better predictor than anything in the younger age groups, where star kids often drop out from.
Even so you still lose guys at that age.
KM said it was very complex when trying to rationalise why some players developed late and others faded out early.

