World news and politics.

[WhatAmIWatching]

By the way Japan's population, despite returning diaspora, is shrinking to the point where entire towns, communities, schools and facilities have closed down. Particularly in rural areas.

During the gold rush in Victoria a myriad of towns sprang up and these were recorded in the maps of the time. Travel there today and there is nothing: no buildings, no infrastructure, nothing. Others are reduced to a handful of people. In you ever travel to north WA make a detour to Onslow, once a thriving pearl town with heaps of Japanese who came here in the 1800s for pearls - they are buried in the Japanese cemetery.
There is nothing in the constitution nor on any religious text demanding that all towns or cities survive till the end of time.
Can I recommend the book by Edward Glaeser "The triumph of the city" describing how throughout history small towns' population get attracted to live in cities and what that means economically.

 

[Sharkman84]

It's not my fault you can't math. You said 60 million people returning would solve a 750 million person deficit.

60 million won't put a dent in it.

For someone who slags off America routinely you just used an American term. It's maths not math in Australia.

No matter what I put forward you've always got something negative to say about it.

I get it, life must really suck for you that you make yourself feel better by being a cyberbully online.

 

[Sharkman84]

'Free' in inverted commas. They've never had a change of government since their independence. Out of their 99 seat Parliament there's 10 opposition members. 2 are state mandated.

The rank coercion the government engages in when elections are on would blow your mind.

No different to parts of Australia then. Victoria have had the same government for most of the 21st century (bar a breif period at the end of the 2000's & early 2010's), South Australia have largely had the same government for all of the 21st century (bar one term in 2018 to 2022).

 

[WhatAmIWatching]

Then there's the wishful thinking of importing millions of people who can't read and write from archaic cultures in regards to women and life to become rocket scientists. Germany has some of the dumbest policies out there. A very generous welfare state that has weakened immensely in arranging or even forcing people to get up and get working. Interestingly the migrant birth rate in Europe is so high yet the social and education problems persist.

All of the nations have stuffed up by not providing better support and policies for organic growth. Skilled and vetted migration along with a positive local birth rate is the way to go.

Many countries have flicked the panic button and rushed people in for a numbers game but not thought about the social and financial consequences.

Germany's financial malaise begun with re-unification between East & West Germany. West Germany pumped in $B into East Germany as well as the new governments in Central Europe which sapped their finances but they would have been OK. Then came along the Arab Spring & invasions of Afghanistan & Iraq which created a massive flow migrants. Chancellor Merkel, being the daughter of Lutheran pastor and having grown up in communist East Germany, did a captain's pick and opened the borders - her political party were caught by surprise as was everyone else. The rest is history. Oh, and I forgot about the GFC (Deutchsbank was on watch as it teetered), the collapse of Greece and the PIGS, and Covid-19.

If you live in a country like Australia, no government policy will engender population growth unless you have coercion. China had the one child policy that was brutally enforced and it worked however there were still families with multiple children. The biggest social change has been the invention of birth control pills, the support governments provide for the aged, the rising cost of having children, and the look ahead for children's future. Birth control pills enabled women (and men) to be able to plan when to have children and how many although I do note that men are now having vasectomies with no shame attached - something unheard of when I was a kid. Government provided aged care means that people don't have to have so many kids to look after them when you get old - note that in Singapore (and Greece I believe) by law children have to look after their parents with governments only providing to those that do not have children. The cost of raising a child continues to increase with more and more parents choosing private schools so that becomes a factor as well. Finally, responsible parents tend to look at the way their kids will earn a living which means more money and effort is dedicated to one or two kids rather than three or four.

All of this against a background of we want tax cuts!

 

[Muz]

I did say adapt.

And yes current economic policy is based on increasing population and consumerism. I'm old enough to have experienced the change from savings to mass consumerism. That happened in the 80s when the USA went from having surplus savings (public & private) to both being in deficit. Australia has always had a savings deficit but thanks to compulsory superannuation that deficit has shrunk enormously.

Your view is rather pessimistic. And a serious question, is your world view based on keeping the economics as they are or is it to keep society from being in perpetual conflict & misery?

My view is realistic. Given that economies are based on perpetual growth there's massive challenges coming.

The economy will have to change but achieving that is going to be one of the greatest challenges in human history.

If you don't have a tax base to pay for old people or infrastructure, if you have 10 open positions but only 6 applicants then there's going to be holes all over the place that won't be filled and there's going to be huge problems.

I'm not sure what they're going to do. One answer would be to massively increase taxes on the ultra wealthy. Say 99 cents in the dollar on accumulated wealth after, pick a number, a billion dollars but even that won't help if you have money to pay for stuff but not enough people to do the stuff.

Maybe robotics will help.

I don't know what the answer is. The world's population will peak at 11 to 12 billion and then plummet.

People aren't having kids. That's not surprising. Who knew if the government let housing costs get out of control and let the cost of living skyrocket young people would decide to not have children.

To some degree this massive funneling of wealth upwards and the hollowing out of the middle class has exacerbated this problem. Though even fixing that won't stop populations from declining.

For the first time in human history people are, on a large scale, opting out of having children.

 

[Muz]

For someone who slags off America routinely you just used an American term. It's maths not math in Australia.

No matter what I put forward you've always got something negative to say about it.

I get it, life must really suck for you that you make yourself feel better by being a cyberbully online.

Don't play the victim card champ. You've called me scum, a socialist, a communist, and other names, accused me of treasonous behaviour and told me to fuck off out of Australia multiple times.

Can't do all that and then have a little sook when things don't go your way.

 

[Muz]

During the gold rush in Victoria a myriad of towns sprang up and these were recorded in the maps of the time. Travel there today and there is nothing: no buildings, no infrastructure, nothing. Others are reduced to a handful of people. In you ever travel to north WA make a detour to Onslow, once a thriving pearl town with heaps of Japanese who came here in the 1800s for pearls - they are buried in the Japanese cemetery.
There is nothing in the constitution nor on any religious text demanding that all towns or cities survive till the end of time.
Can I recommend the book by Edward Glaeser "The triumph of the city" describing how throughout history small towns' population get attracted to live in cities and what that means economically.

I understand urbanisation but this is different. Urban cities will shrink too.

Like I said in south Korea at their current birth rates, in 4 generations 100 people will become 13.

Thats unrecoverable. (And it won't be just South Korea.)

Can I suggest you watch this little video.

It's been posted here before.



The irony of all this is, rather than making political mileage out of wanting to reduce immigration, countries will be competing and begging for immigrants to come in the next few decades.

 

[Football us life]

When it comes to immigration I'm probably more of a higher growth advocate than most. For Australia I think around 250-300K net or around 1-1.25% per year.

I think Canada has been working on that percentage so Australia should be able to match its cousins in North America....

Of course it's quite an aggressive number and many will say that it's too high and I get this but for a lot of the reasons Muz has cited I think it's where you have to be.

And to be honest I think most Australians see clear benefits that immigration brings, even as they sometimes remain divided about various immigration levels and what is a sustainable level of population growth. So I think more research and information is needed to understand the specific hesitations and concerns they are perhaps expressing. Also this is a story that needs to be told better by our politicians

 

[Sharkman84]

Don't play the victim card champ. You've called me scum, a socialist, a communist, and other names, accused me of treasonous behaviour and told me to fuck off out of Australia multiple times.

Can't do all that and then have a little sook when things don't go your way.

ROFL, so the bully can't handle getting a taste of his own medicine huh.

Well nothing I've said isn't wide of the mark at all.

You've admitted you are a socialist and you condone treasonous behaviour like burning the national flag so if the shoe fits.

 

[Sharkman84]

When it comes to immigration I'm probably more of a higher growth advocate than most. For Australia I think around 250-300K net or around 1-1.25% per year.

I think Canada has been working on that percentage so Australia should be able to match its cousins in North America....

Of course it's quite an aggressive number and many will say that it's too high and I get this but for a lot of the reasons Muz has cited I think it's where you have to be.

And to be honest I think most Australians see clear benefits that immigration brings, even as they sometimes remain divided about various immigration levels and what is a sustainable level of population growth. So I think more research and information is needed to understand the specific hesitations and concerns they are perhaps expressing. Also this is a story that needs to be told better by our politicians

I think most Australians are comfortable with immigration but the conversation that needs to be had that has been buried due to people being howled down as racist for it is the fact we need to be far more choosy when it comes to the subject.

Simple fact of the matter is bring in immigrants is fine but they have to integrate into Australian society.

It's become plain and obvious the past 30+ years that quite a lot of new immigrants have absolutely no interest in integrating into Australian society.

 

[Football us life]

I thi

I think most Australians are comfortable with immigration but the conversation that needs to be had that has been buried due to people being howled down as racist for it is the fact we need to be far more choosy when it comes to the subject.

Simple fact of the matter is bring in immigrants is fine but they have to integrate into Australian society.

It's become plain and obvious the past 30+ years that quite a lot of new immigrants have absolutely no interest in integrating into Australian society.

I think you're going to find immigrant communities in every Western country who don’t fully integrate into their new country.

Britain, France and Belgium are 3 that come to mind. For example in parts of Northern England and the Midlands there are towns such as Leicester, Bradford and Blackburn a huge proportion of immigrants have limited to no English proficiency....

In the outer suburbs of big cities like Paris, Brussels and so on it's a similar situation. Obviously there's French and Flemish but you get my drift.

Cultural and religious values are often not particularly well assimilated either.

It's just the downside to having a great need for migrants I'm afraid. It's never going to be a perfect science unfortunately.

But the vast majority of immigrants do assimilate very well. When I was a kid in the UK an Iranian family moved into our street after they came to Britain after the Islamic Revolution in their home country.

They parents and two boys around my age and two girls who were older. They integrated really well and became valued members of the community. According to my mother who was friendly with the family's mother, the kids all went on to university and got good careers. Doctors, engineers and that kind of thing.

Immigration works very well for most of the time.

 

[Sharkman84]

I thi

I think you're going to find immigrant communities in every Western country who don’t fully integrate into their new country.

Britain, France and Belgium are 3 that come to mind. For example in parts of Northern England and the Midlands there are towns such as Leicester, Bradford and Blackburn a huge proportion of immigrants have limited to no English proficiency....

In the outer suburbs of big cities like Paris, Brussels and so on it's a similar situation. Obviously there's French and Flemish but you get my drift.

Cultural and religious values are often not particularly well assimilated either.

It's just the downside to having a great need for migrants I'm afraid. It's never going to be a perfect science unfortunately.

But the vast majority of immigrants do assimilate very well. When I was a kid in the UK an Iranian family moved into our street after they came to Britain after the Islamic Revolution in their home country.

They parents and two boys around my age and two girls who were older. They integrated really well and became valued members of the community. According to my mother who was friendly with the family's mother, the kids all went on to university and got good careers. Doctors, engineers and that kind of thing.

Immigration works very well for most of the time.

That's what I was getting at.

Western governments have to be more choosy.

Bringing in people from countries who are incompatible and won't integrate with Western society is ludicrous.

 

[Muz]

When it comes to immigration I'm probably more of a higher growth advocate than most. For Australia I think around 250-300K net or around 1-1.25% per year.

I think Canada has been working on that percentage so Australia should be able to match its cousins in North America....

Of course it's quite an aggressive number and many will say that it's too high and I get this but for a lot of the reasons Muz has cited I think it's where you have to be.

And to be honest I think most Australians see clear benefits that immigration brings, even as they sometimes remain divided about various immigration levels and what is a sustainable level of population growth. So I think more research and information is needed to understand the specific hesitations and concerns they are perhaps expressing. Also this is a story that needs to be told better by our politicians

3 things.

Agree the government doesn't talk enough about the benefits of immigration. Successive governments have been terrible at it. The coalition are worse because they love dog whistling about migrants while only paying mealy mouthed lip service to the benefits even though they are pro immigration.

2nd thing. It makes no difference how many people we import because we are just kicking the can down the road. A can we'll eventually have to do something with.

3rd. People act as if we are overwhelmed with choice as to who actually wants to come to Australia. The underlying groupthink by people to scared to say it is they want people to come here that are 'like us'. Well guess what, there aren't hundreds of thousands of white Europeans trying to immigrate to Australia. We take, in large part, those people who want to come here.

 

[Muz]

ROFL, so the bully can't handle getting a taste of his own medicine huh.

Well nothing I've said isn't wide of the mark at all.

You've admitted you are a socialist and you condone treasonous behaviour like burning the national flag so if the shoe fits.

I'm not the one crying like a little bitch about being 'cyberbullied'. I just said don't throw stones if you live in a glass house

Call me all the names you want just don't be a giant sook when you're called out for being demonstrably wrong about something.

 

[Football us life]

That's what I was getting at.

Western governments have to be more choosy.

Bringing in people from countries who are incompatible and won't integrate with Western society is ludicrous.

Bu it is not a perfect science. So, like anything you have to have to take the rough with the smooth....

I think Australia has got it mostly right.

 

[Muz]

When it comes to immigration I'm probably more of a higher growth advocate than most. For Australia I think around 250-300K net or around 1-1.25% per year.

I think Canada has been working on that percentage so Australia should be able to match its cousins in North America....

Of course it's quite an aggressive number and many will say that it's too high and I get this but for a lot of the reasons Muz has cited I think it's where you have to be.

And to be honest I think most Australians see clear benefits that immigration brings, even as they sometimes remain divided about various immigration levels and what is a sustainable level of population growth. So I think more research and information is needed to understand the specific hesitations and concerns they are perhaps expressing. Also this is a story that needs to be told better by our politicians

One more thing. You can't bring in that many people if you can't house them. Because even at current rates supply is not keeping up with demand hence the current situation where homes are out of reach of the average Australian.

So that needs to be sorted first. And, despite the government saying they'll increase housing, they're missing all their targets. And not just by a little bit.

 

[Muz]

Bu it is not a perfect science. So, like anything you have to have to take the rough with the smooth....

I think Australia has got it mostly right.

He's too gutless to say white people because let's be honest, that's what he means.

But even if he did say it, it makes no difference anyway. White Europeans aren't lining up by the hundreds of thousands to come to Australia. They have their own demographic problems.

Nearly every single European country has a fertility rate lower than the 2.1 required. 99% of them.

 

[Football us life]

3 things.

Agree the government doesn't talk enough about the benefits of immigration. Successive governments have been terrible at it. The coalition are worse because they love dog whistling about migrants while only paying mealy mouthed lip service to the benefits even though they are pro immigration.

2nd thing. It makes no difference how many people we import because we are just kicking the can down the road. A can we'll eventually have to do something with.

3rd. People act as if we are overwhelmed with choice as to who actually wants to come to Australia. The underlying groupthink by people to scared to say it is they want people to come here that are 'like us'. Well guess what, there aren't hundreds of thousands of white Europeans trying to immigrate to Australia. We take, in large part, those people who want to come here.

[

One more thing. You can't bring in that many people if you can't house them. Because even at current rates supply is not keeping up with demand hence the current situation where homes are out of reach of the average Australian.

So that needs to be sorted first. And, despite the government saying they'll increase housing, they're missing all their targets. And not just by a little bit.

I agree with you somewhat on all of this. It's going to take a far more cleverer person than me to come up with a workable strategy on how to perfect immigration....

In he meantime countries such as Australia have to try and find a workable ongoing way of doing things...

 

[Muz]

That's what I was getting at.

Western governments have to be more choosy.

Bringing in people from countries who are incompatible and won't integrate with Western society is ludicrous.

Name your dream group of countries you'd like them to come from.

Don't be scared.

 

[Muz]

[

QUOTE="Muz, post: 109279, member: 7"]
One more thing. You can't bring in that many people if you can't house them. Because even at current rates supply is not keeping up with demand hence the current situation where homes are out of reach of the average Australian.

So that needs to be sorted first. And, despite the government saying they'll increase housing, they're missing all their targets. And not just by a little bit.

I agree with you somewhat on all of this. It's going to take a far more cleverer person than me to come up with a workable strategy on how to perfect immigration....

In he meantime countries such as Australia have to try and find a workable ongoing waybof doing things...
[/QUOTE]


Not sure what's happened to the formatting.

My overarching point is this is just kicking the tin down the road. We have population growth because that means a growing economy.

At some stage all of this will come to a screeching halt and there's going to massive problems.

Just imagine for a minute where we can't get people to come here in which case our economy starts to shrink. Less taxpayers, less workers, less infrastructure, reduced upkeep on infrastructure, job shortages galore in aged care, health, construction and on and on. Then what?

And you don't even need to imagine it because it will happen.

Countries are already competing for immigrants but that's fine now because populations are still growing in some places but they won't forever. And that 'forever' is closer than we think.