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World cup 2026 Draw

$200 said:
A little out of loop, not so long ago we were looking at having to overtake Korea/Iran/Ecuador/Austria to be in pot 2 but that didn't need to happen afterall. Was it because Denmark didn't qualify direct?
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Correct. I think there was a list of 6-7 scenarios where we needed two of them to happen (two of them being both Italy and Denmark not qualifying directly)
 
So a few draw constraints we didn't already know about or were previously unconfirmed
* Spain Argentina France England - 1 and only one of the top 4 seeds drawn into Groups C/L, E/F/I, G/H, J/K
- if this isn't built into the draw simulator it can be done after the draw is completed by switching/changing group numbers
* At least one 2 EUFA and 1 CAF group from the first 3 pots is required for the Iraq Playoff winner #1 (Iraq/ Bolivia/ Suriname)
* at least one of the following groupings from the first 3 pots is required for Congo DR playoff winner #2 (Congo DR/ New Caledonia/ Jamaica)
- 1 EUFA, 1SA, 1 AFC and/or
- 2 EUFA, 1 AFC and/or
- 2 EUFA, 1SA

Which means in practice
* pot 2 should be a clean draw although a number of NA pot 1/SA pot 2 and SA pot 1/AFC pot 2 combos quickly make a manual draw become a nightmare
*pot 3 will most likely need to apply draw principles in advance, ie Scotland/Norway/5 CAF teams in particular to be juggled around with the other 5 teams to meet the Intercontinental playoff winner and EUFA team requirements
* the sheer number of EUFA and CAF teams 16+9+ICP#2 means most groups SHOULD have at least 2 from these continents (2 EUFA 1 CAF, 2 EUFA or 1 EUFA 1 CAF) and at least one of these from the first 3 pots (which probably should make it a draw constraint, but it isn't)
 
GoAussies said:
So a few draw constraints we didn't already know about or were previously unconfirmed
* Spain Argentina France England - 1 and only one of the top 4 seeds drawn into Groups C/L, E/F/I, G/H, J/K
- if this isn't built into the draw simulator it can be done after the draw is completed by switching/changing group numbers
* At least one 2 EUFA and 1 CAF group from the first 3 pots is required for the Iraq Playoff winner #1 (Iraq/ Bolivia/ Suriname)
* at least one of the following groupings from the first 3 pots is required for Congo DR playoff winner #2 (Congo DR/ New Caledonia/ Jamaica)
- 1 EUFA, 1SA, 1 AFC and/or
- 2 EUFA, 1 AFC and/or
- 2 EUFA, 1SA

Which means in practice
* pot 2 should be a clean draw although a number of NA pot 1/SA pot 2 and SA pot 1/AFC pot 2 combos quickly make a manual draw become a nightmare
*pot 3 will most likely need to apply draw principles in advance, ie Scotland/Norway/5 CAF teams in particular to be juggled around with the other 5 teams to meet the Intercontinental playoff winner and EUFA team requirements
* the sheer number of EUFA and CAF teams 16+9+ICP#2 means most groups SHOULD have at least 2 from these continents (2 EUFA 1 CAF, 2 EUFA or 1 EUFA 1 CAF) and at least one of these from the first 3 pots (which probably should make it a draw constraint, but it isn't)
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Yep, when I did my manual mock draw, the tough bit was Pot 4 (as i summarised under thefirst table) because there was a playoff path I missed when moving things around.

Generally the way they do these, is that let's say Pot 3 Group C is up for drawing, and the nation that is pulled out already clashes with those drawn from Pots 1 and 2, they just place that nation in the next applicable group, and come back to the empty spot when they draw someone that fits. Happened a bit when seeing Pots 3 and 4 being drawn on my simulated draw. I'm not sure there will be a full principle to apply other than that - the last time I remember something like that being a thing was 2006, with Serbia & Montenegro placed in it's own special pot to be drawn randomly into whichever groups didn't already have 2 UEFA nations, or something like that.
 
So our “easiest” group should still be Canada, South Africa, and New Zealand unless New Caledonia somehow get through. “Toughest” group would be any of Pot 1 except the three hosts, Norway, and Italy (Pot 1 would have to be non-UEFA). If Pot 1 is EUFA, then Turkiye is next highest-ranked.
 
Kitwally said:
So our “easiest” group should still be Canada, South Africa, and New Zealand unless New Caledonia somehow get through. “Toughest” group would be any of Pot 1 except the three hosts, Norway, and Italy (Pot 1 would have to be non-UEFA). If Pot 1 is EUFA, then Turkiye is next highest-ranked.
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All groups must have a EUFA team so Canada, Australia, South Africa group from Pots 1, 2 and 3 would be drawn with a EUFA playoff winner from Pot 4.
 
Kitwally said:
Wait, does every group have to have at least one UEFA?
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Yes
LFC said:
In principle, no group will have more than one team from the same confederation drawn into it. This applies to all confederations except UEFA, which is represented by 16 teams. Each group must have at least one, but no more than two UEFA teams drawn into it.

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And from the actual doc - goes into slightly more detail than that:

Each group must have at least one, but no more than two UEFA teams drawn into it. Thus, four out of the 12 groups will contain two of the 16 UEFA teams (including the four play-off placeholders).

GoAussies said:
All groups must have a EUFA team so Canada, Australia, South Africa group from Pots 1, 2 and 3 would be drawn with a EUFA playoff winner from Pot 4.
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So, in saying that, technically our easiest group would be Canada, Australia, Scotland, New Zealand (assuming all seeded playoff nations win through to the final tournament)
 
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Assuming that all groups have the same matchday structure as Groups A, B and D (ie A1A2+A3A4, A2A4+A1A3, A1A4+A2A3) the Group Stage match order for Australia/other Pot 2 teams will be either
• Entirely in Mexico (Group A)
o A3 (A4 June 11 Zappan, **MEXICO** June 18 Zappan again, A2 June 24 Guadalupe)
• 2 USA / 1 Mexico (Group K)
o K4 (K3 June 17 Mexico City, K2 June 23 Houston, K1 June 27 Miami)
• Entirely in USA (5 groups)
o C2 (C1 June 13 Foxborough, C4 June 19 Phillie, C3 June 24 Atlanta)
o E4 (E3 June 14 Houston, E2 June 20 KC, E1 June 25 NY)
o F2 (F1 June 14 Arlington, F4 June 20 Houston, F3 June 25 KC)
o H4 (H3 June 15 Atlanta, H2 June 21 Miami, H1 June 26 Houston)
o J3 (J4 June 16 Santa Clara, J1 June 22 SC again, J2 June 27 Arlington)
• 2 USA / 1 Canada (4 groups - each has the middle game in the USA and noting Vancouver/Seattle is only 225km)
o B4 (B3 June 13 Santa Clara, B2 June 18 Inglewood, **CANADA** June 24 Vancouver)
o D3 (D4 June 13 Vancouver, **USA** June 19 Seattle, D2 June 25 Santa Clara)
o I2 (I1 June 16 NY, I4 June 22 NY again, I3 June 26 Toronto )
o L2 (L1 June 17 Toronto, L4 June 23 Foxborough, L3 June 27 Phillie)
• 1 USA / 2 Canada (Group G)
o G3 (G4 June 15 Seattle, G1 June 21 Vancouver, G2 June 26 Vanc again)

-- hopefully I haven't made a mistake/s with this and there are no post draw changes when FIFA or tournament officials allocate kickoff times with this but feel free to point out if I have made errors
 
GoAussies said:
Assuming that all groups have the same matchday structure as Groups A, B and D (ie A1A2+A3A4, A2A4+A1A3, A1A4+A2A3) the Group Stage match order for Australia/other Pot 2 teams will be either
• Entirely in Mexico (Group A)
o A3 (A4 June 11 Zappan, **MEXICO** June 18 Zappan again, A2 June 24 Guadalupe)
• 2 USA / 1 Mexico (Group K)
o K4 (K3 June 17 Mexico City, K2 June 23 Houston, K1 June 27 Miami)
• Entirely in USA (5 groups)
o C2 (C1 June 13 Foxborough, C4 June 19 Phillie, C3 June 24 Atlanta)
o E4 (E3 June 14 Houston, E2 June 20 KC, E1 June 25 NY)
o F2 (F1 June 14 Arlington, F4 June 20 Houston, F3 June 25 KC)
o H4 (H3 June 15 Atlanta, H2 June 21 Miami, H1 June 26 Houston)
o J3 (J4 June 16 Santa Clara, J1 June 22 SC again, J2 June 27 Arlington)
• 2 USA / 1 Canada (4 groups - each has the middle game in the USA and noting Vancouver/Seattle is only 225km)
o B4 (B3 June 13 Santa Clara, B2 June 18 Inglewood, **CANADA** June 24 Vancouver)
o D3 (D4 June 13 Vancouver, **USA** June 19 Seattle, D2 June 25 Santa Clara)
o I2 (I1 June 16 NY, I4 June 22 NY again, I3 June 26 Toronto )
o L2 (L1 June 17 Toronto, L4 June 23 Foxborough, L3 June 27 Phillie)
• 1 USA / 2 Canada (Group G)
o G3 (G4 June 15 Seattle, G1 June 21 Vancouver, G2 June 26 Vanc again)

-- hopefully I haven't made a mistake/s with this and there are no post draw changes when FIFA or tournament officials allocate kickoff times with this but feel free to point out if I have made errors
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I don't think dates will change, but times haven't been set yet - and you've got the groupings right in the sense of where we'd be placed for each pot - nice work
 
NicCarBel said:
So, in saying that, technically our easiest group would be Canada, Australia, Scotland, New Zealand (assuming all seeded playoff nations win through to the final tournament)
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Suriname and New Caledonia are the only possible pot 4 sides currently ranked below New Zealand, and given that we can't draw Suriname as they are in Iraq's playoff group Canada, Australia, Scotland, New Zealand/New Caledoniav(if they qualify) or Pot 3 South Africa/Pot 4 Kosovo (if they qualify from Turkey's playoff group) who are just above NZ rankings wise.
 
Kitwally said:
So our “easiest” group should still be Canada, South Africa, and New Zealand unless New Caledonia somehow get through. “Toughest” group would be any of Pot 1 except the three hosts, Norway, and Italy (Pot 1 would have to be non-UEFA). If Pot 1 is EUFA, then Turkiye is next highest-ranked.
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I'm not sure the hosts will be easy at home.
 
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Ok, so in theory easiest = Canada(27), Australia(26), South Africa(61), and Kosovo(80). (Kosovo would have to beat Slovakia(45) and Turkiye(25)/Romania(44). If drawn UEFA in Pot 1 = Germany(9), Australia(26), South Africa(61), and New Caledonia(149)/Surinam(123) or New Zealand(86) or Haiti(84) or Curacao(82) and so on.
Hardest in theory on rankings: Spain(1), Australia(26), Panama(30), and Dr Congo(56) or Cape Verde(68).
Or: Argentina(2), Australia(26), Norway(29), and Dr Congo(56) or Cape Verde(68)!
*Assuming Dr Congo beats New Caledonia/Jamaica
 
Kitwally said:
Ok, so in theory easiest = Canada(27), Australia(26), South Africa(61), and Kosovo(80). (Kosovo would have to beat Slovakia(45) and Turkiye(25)/Romania(44). If drawn UEFA in Pot 1 = Germany(9), Australia(26), South Africa(61), and New Caledonia(149)/Surinam(123) or New Zealand(86) or Haiti(84) or Curacao(82) and so on.
Hardest in theory on rankings: Spain(1), Australia(26), Panama(30), and Dr Congo(56) or Cape Verde(68).
Or: Argentina(2), Australia(26), Norway(29), and Dr Congo(56) or Cape Verde(68)!
*Assuming Dr Congo beats New Caledonia/Jamaica
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GoAussies said:
Suriname and New Caledonia are the only possible pot 4 sides currently ranked below New Zealand, and given that we can't draw Suriname as they are in Iraq's playoff group Canada, Australia, Scotland, New Zealand/New Caledoniav(if they qualify) or Pot 3 South Africa/Pot 4 Kosovo (if they qualify from Turkey's playoff group) who are just above NZ rankings wise.
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Yeah, I'm just assuming the seeded nations win the playoffs for these calculations - which I know isn't 100%, it is the most reasonable guide. That's how I'm including Scotland in the 'easiest' draw (As they are the lowest UEFA ranked nation in that instance)

As for hardest (rankings wise) - again, assuming everyone who is supposed to win, wins - will do these all based off where we would draw UEFA nations:

Single UEFA Nation
  • Easiest: Canada, Australia, Scotland, New Zealand
  • Hardest: depends which pot we draw the UEFA nation. Too many variables for me to pick just one:
    • Spain, Australia, Panama, Cape Verde - realistically could include any UEFA Pot 1 nation here
    • USA, Australia, Egypt, Italy
    • Argentina/Brazil, Australia, Panama, Italy
2x UEFA Nations:
  • Easiest: Canada, Australia, Scotland, Ukraine
  • Hardest: see above - probably between:
    • Spain, Australia, Panama, Italy - realistically Pot 1 could be any UEFA nation for this
    • Argentina/Brazil, Australia, Norway, Italy
 
We will be just making up the numbers anyway, so doesn't matter who we are drawn with. The games against Colombia, USA and Ven showed we don't have wot it takes to get out of the group stage anyway. Anyway it was good until it lasted.
 
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