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Money on Japan for the semi finals should be good value. Quarters you'd be reasonably confident.
World cup 2026 Draw
- Thread starter melbcityguy
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20K views · 101 reactions | The moment St. Pauli's 🇦🇺 Jackson Irvine and Connor Metcalfe found out they will be going head-to-head with 🇺🇸 James Sands at next year's World Cup! 🫣 🏆 #FIFAWorldCup 26™ Final Draw | SBS & SBS On Demand 🎥: FC St. Pauli
The moment St. Pauli's 🇦🇺 Jackson Irvine and Connor Metcalfe found out they will be going head-to-head with 🇺🇸 James Sands at next year's World Cup! 🫣 🏆 #FIFAWorldCup 26™ Final Draw | SBS & SBS On...
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If the EUFA constraint for the 2026 draw was changed simply to a maximum of 2 EUFA teams are allowed per Group, rather than enforcing a minimum of 1 as well, our Group would have Cape Verde instead of EUFA Playoff Path C winner as our opening game.
Now that would have been a draw that had fans excited about !
Those looking to the Round of 32 would see that there are 5 possible Round of 32 fixtures that Group D teams may qualify for
Match 74: June 29 Boston - Winner Group E vs Best 3rd place Group A/B/C/D/F
Match 77: June 30 NY - Winner Group I vs Best 3rd place Group C/D/F/G/H
Match 81: July 1 San Francisco (no travel after last Group stage game) - Winner Group D vs Best 3rd place Group B/E/F/I/J
Match 87: July 3 Kansas City - Winner Group K vs Best 3rd place Group D/E/I/J/L
Match 88: July 3 Dallas - Runner-up Group D vs Runner-up Group G
Being Group Runner Up is a set opponent (tbd) and a set city (Dallas) who we will know as at the 25 June as Groupd D and G play on the same day.
Bring Group Winner is a set city (San Francisco) which we will know as at the 25 June and an opponent who we will know as at June 27 when the best 8 third placed teams are allocated at the completion of the Group Stage.
Being 3rd placed means that within the 495 possible combinations of 8 third place getters, there are 330 combinations where the Group D 3rd place getter qualifies for the Round of 32. Whoever finishes 3rd would only find out which of the 3 potential cities they play in on the 27th and may need to play on the 29th, which for Australia means potentially staying in SF after the Paraguay game and travelling on the 28th, or taking a punt and flying to the East Coast on the 26th if we finish 3rd and if necessary travelling again closer to the game.
The table for opponents for both the Group Winner and 3rd Place opponents are as follows
1D (vs 495 combos) 3rd D (vs 330 combos)
vs 3B (329, 66.5%) vs 1E BOSTON (212, 64.2%)
vs 3J (64, 12.9%) vs 1I NEW YORK (99, 30.0%)
vs 3I (52, 10.5%) vs 1K KC (19, 5.8%)
vs 3E (39, 7.9%)
vs 3F (11, 2.2%)
Top Seeds in Groups E, I and K are Germany, France and Portugal so if they top their groups they would be tough opposition.
Group B is the Canada Qatar Switzerland EUFA (Italy* top seeded for March playoffs) group and Group G is Belgium Iran Egypt NZ.
So a 67% chance of Canada/Qatar/Switzerland/? if first (edit - regardless of opponents that match is in San Francisco), a 100% chance of Belgium/Iran/Egypt/NZ in Dallas if second, and a 64% of Germany/Ecuador/Ivory Coast/Curacao in Boston as a top 8 ranked best 3rd placed team.
There are so many ifs buts and maybes but even with the expanded format finishing top 2 in our Group is super important to knowing the next city quickly and moving forward. For teams in Groups G-L finishing 3rd becomes a better (but still risky) safety net if the maths work in their favour.
Personally I would be ecstatic to move on regardless, so hopefully I can reference this in 6 months after we have wrapped up progression and are primed for a cup run for the ages.
Match 74: June 29 Boston - Winner Group E vs Best 3rd place Group A/B/C/D/F
Match 77: June 30 NY - Winner Group I vs Best 3rd place Group C/D/F/G/H
Match 81: July 1 San Francisco (no travel after last Group stage game) - Winner Group D vs Best 3rd place Group B/E/F/I/J
Match 87: July 3 Kansas City - Winner Group K vs Best 3rd place Group D/E/I/J/L
Match 88: July 3 Dallas - Runner-up Group D vs Runner-up Group G
Being Group Runner Up is a set opponent (tbd) and a set city (Dallas) who we will know as at the 25 June as Groupd D and G play on the same day.
Bring Group Winner is a set city (San Francisco) which we will know as at the 25 June and an opponent who we will know as at June 27 when the best 8 third placed teams are allocated at the completion of the Group Stage.
Being 3rd placed means that within the 495 possible combinations of 8 third place getters, there are 330 combinations where the Group D 3rd place getter qualifies for the Round of 32. Whoever finishes 3rd would only find out which of the 3 potential cities they play in on the 27th and may need to play on the 29th, which for Australia means potentially staying in SF after the Paraguay game and travelling on the 28th, or taking a punt and flying to the East Coast on the 26th if we finish 3rd and if necessary travelling again closer to the game.
The table for opponents for both the Group Winner and 3rd Place opponents are as follows
1D (vs 495 combos) 3rd D (vs 330 combos)
vs 3B (329, 66.5%) vs 1E BOSTON (212, 64.2%)
vs 3J (64, 12.9%) vs 1I NEW YORK (99, 30.0%)
vs 3I (52, 10.5%) vs 1K KC (19, 5.8%)
vs 3E (39, 7.9%)
vs 3F (11, 2.2%)
Top Seeds in Groups E, I and K are Germany, France and Portugal so if they top their groups they would be tough opposition.
Group B is the Canada Qatar Switzerland EUFA (Italy* top seeded for March playoffs) group and Group G is Belgium Iran Egypt NZ.
So a 67% chance of Canada/Qatar/Switzerland/? if first (edit - regardless of opponents that match is in San Francisco), a 100% chance of Belgium/Iran/Egypt/NZ in Dallas if second, and a 64% of Germany/Ecuador/Ivory Coast/Curacao in Boston as a top 8 ranked best 3rd placed team.
There are so many ifs buts and maybes but even with the expanded format finishing top 2 in our Group is super important to knowing the next city quickly and moving forward. For teams in Groups G-L finishing 3rd becomes a better (but still risky) safety net if the maths work in their favour.
Personally I would be ecstatic to move on regardless, so hopefully I can reference this in 6 months after we have wrapped up progression and are primed for a cup run for the ages.
Last edited:
Good work GoAussies.
But why a 67% chance of Canada/Qatar/Switzerland/? in San Francisco if first?
If first it’s Group D Winner v 3rd Group B/E/F/I/J in San Francisco on July 1. That’s 100% if first.
If 3rd:
33.33% Winner Group E v 3rd Group A/B/C/D/F in Boston on June 29
33.33% Winner Group I v 3rd Group C/D/F/G/H in NY on June 30
33.33% Winner Group K v 3rd Group D/E/I/J/L in Kansas July 3
Right?
But why a 67% chance of Canada/Qatar/Switzerland/? in San Francisco if first?
If first it’s Group D Winner v 3rd Group B/E/F/I/J in San Francisco on July 1. That’s 100% if first.
If 3rd:
33.33% Winner Group E v 3rd Group A/B/C/D/F in Boston on June 29
33.33% Winner Group I v 3rd Group C/D/F/G/H in NY on June 30
33.33% Winner Group K v 3rd Group D/E/I/J/L in Kansas July 3
Right?
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And I thought I was a nerd...
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Watching the draw back. The American audience are that retarded. After they went back to put Scotland in group C, they cheered for Saudi next thinking group D was next again. The group had already received Paraguay and Australia is AFC.
NicCarBel
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Yes, 33.3% chance of either Group E/I/K winner and different venue for each is what I had worked out, and 20% chance (if we top the group) of who we face, but the venue is 100% locked in.
socceroosmad
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Skill in a foreign or second language is rarely uniform across the 4 sub-skills. Two productive: speaking and writing; and two receptive: listening and reading. Person may well have better listening skills than speaking skills.
socceroosmad
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socceroosmad
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Hope you both have an awesome time but don't take your phone
socceroosmad
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Arnie in the group of Near Death Experiences
melbcityguy
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That was a fun watch
NicCarBel
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Got bored and since I downloaded this PES mod that updates to 2025/26 and has all the World Cup teams, I decided to do a draw for a 32 team world cup, using the actual results from qualifying to determine who the 32 were.
This will still have 3 playoff spots (1x UEFA, and 2x Intercontinental) - I'll leave UEFA as UEFA for now, but did a random draw for the Intercontinental spots (as in which confederation plays who) and got OFC v CONMEBOL, and CONCACAF v AFC.
Here are the qualifiers by Confederation:
CONCACAF
USA (Hosts)
Mexico (Hosts)
Canada (Hosts)
Curacao
CONMEBOL
Argentina
Ecuador
Colombia
Uruguay
AFC
Iran
South Korea
Japan
Australia
UEFA
England
France
Croatia
Portugal
Norway
Germany
Netherlands
Belgium
Austria
Switzerland
Spain
Scotland
CAF
Tunisia
Ivory Coast
Egypt
Ghana
Algeria
Playoffs (going to sim the two intercontinental ones on the game while I do the draw)
UEFA (lets just assume Italy, I guess, as the highest ranked 2nd place UEFA nation)
Panama v Uzbekistan
New Zealand v Brazil
SEEDINGS
Will seed as usual - 4x pots of 8 - ranked by the 2025 November FIFA Rankings, with the 3x hosts in Pot 1, and the 3x Playoff spots in Pot 4
DRAW AND PROCEDURE
Following the usual principles - no more than 1 nation per confederation in each group (2 for UEFA), and seeding the playoffs as such as well (as in PAN/UZB cannot be put in a group with CONCACAF/AFC at all.
I've also placed Mexico and Canada in Groups A and C as per the original draw. However, to keep USA separate from Canada under the 32 nation set-up, USA has been placed in Group E, rather than Group D.
I also did the random draw into places 2, 3 and 4 for each group, rather than the pre-determined slots from the actual draw.
FINAL DRAW
This will still have 3 playoff spots (1x UEFA, and 2x Intercontinental) - I'll leave UEFA as UEFA for now, but did a random draw for the Intercontinental spots (as in which confederation plays who) and got OFC v CONMEBOL, and CONCACAF v AFC.
Here are the qualifiers by Confederation:
CONCACAF
USA (Hosts)
Mexico (Hosts)
Canada (Hosts)
Curacao
CONMEBOL
Argentina
Ecuador
Colombia
Uruguay
AFC
Iran
South Korea
Japan
Australia
UEFA
England
France
Croatia
Portugal
Norway
Germany
Netherlands
Belgium
Austria
Switzerland
Spain
Scotland
CAF
Tunisia
Ivory Coast
Egypt
Ghana
Algeria
Playoffs (going to sim the two intercontinental ones on the game while I do the draw)
UEFA (lets just assume Italy, I guess, as the highest ranked 2nd place UEFA nation)
Panama v Uzbekistan
New Zealand v Brazil
SEEDINGS
Will seed as usual - 4x pots of 8 - ranked by the 2025 November FIFA Rankings, with the 3x hosts in Pot 1, and the 3x Playoff spots in Pot 4
| POT 1 | POT 2 | POT 3 | POT 4 |
| USA | Netherlands | Iran | Scotland |
| Mexico | Belgium | Korea Republic | Tunisia |
| Canada | Germany | Ecuador | Ivory Coast |
| Spain | Croatia | Austria | Ghana |
| Argentina | Colombia | Australia | Curacao |
| France | Uruguay | Norway | UEFA Playoff Winner |
| England | Switzerland | Egypt | Panama / Uzbekistan |
| Portugal | Japan | Algeria | New Zealand / Brazil |
DRAW AND PROCEDURE
Following the usual principles - no more than 1 nation per confederation in each group (2 for UEFA), and seeding the playoffs as such as well (as in PAN/UZB cannot be put in a group with CONCACAF/AFC at all.
I've also placed Mexico and Canada in Groups A and C as per the original draw. However, to keep USA separate from Canada under the 32 nation set-up, USA has been placed in Group E, rather than Group D.
I also did the random draw into places 2, 3 and 4 for each group, rather than the pre-determined slots from the actual draw.
FINAL DRAW
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H |
| Mexico | Spain | Canada | England | USA | Argentina | Portugal | Framce |
| Croatia | Colombia | Netherlands | Ivory Coast | New Zealand / Brazil | Korea Republic | Iran | Japan |
| Norway | Austria | Ecuador | Uruguay | Algeria | Curacao | Ghana | Scotland |
| Tunisia | Panama / Uzbekistan | UEFA Playoff Winner | Australia | Switzerland | Germany | Belgium | Egypt |
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Brazil, Italy and Panama most likely. Brazil have qualified for every single World Cup in history.
NicCarBel
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Yes that would be most likely.
Did the sims on the game though (where I actually watch the game, not just have it give a result) and got on aggregate (home team for first leg lists first)
Panama 3-1 Uzbekistan
New Zealand 1-0 Brazil
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Disastrous for Brazil
NicCarBel
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Big, big moments from Oli Sail (full second leg highlights at end of video)
Full draw following playoffs:
