SIMULATIONS - 2026 FIFA World Cup

[NicCarBel]

Alright everyone, I’ve finished my simulations of the playoffs and the following nations have qualified for my simulated run through of the World Cup



UEFA A - Italy
UEFA B - Sweden
UEFA C - Kosovo
UEFA D - Denmark
Intercontinental A - DR Congo
Intercontinental B - Bolivia

I’ll be doing a sim through of the groups using these as the extra qualifiers this week, with screen recordings of the sims for Australia’s games (and might do All Whites as well) and see how the tournament progresses.



I’ll probably do another one after the actual playoffs are complete (with the actual qualifiers, and using the March squads for all teams as close as possible), and then a third as the final World Cup squads are announced.

 

[NicCarBel]

For the first run through (using the SP Football Life 2026 PES 2021 mod), I’ve used the following methods to determine the final squads of 26:

• Their most recent squads
• Players called up within the last 12 months
• Injured players that would probably walk straight back into the squad - such as Harry Souttar in Australia's case.
• Only using players that were on the game

So, here's the Socceroos squad I've put together for the first simulation

1. Mat Ryan
2. Milos Degenek
3. Lewis Miller
4. Kye Rowles
5. Jordan Bos
6. Martin Boyle
7. Nestory Irankunda
8. Connor Metcalfe
9. Mo Toure
10. Ajdin Hrustic
11. Craig Goodwin
12. Paul Izzo
13. Aiden O'Neill
14. Riley McGree
15. Mitch Duke
16. Aziz Behich
17. Cameron Devlin
18. Joe Gauci
19. Harry Souttar
20. Max Balard
21. Cameron Burgess
22. Jackson Irvine
23. Alessandro Circati
24. Brandon Borrello
25. Jason Geria
26. Patrick Yazbek

 

[NicCarBel]

Ok simulation starts tonight just focusing on Australia's games.
When I do a playthrough ones where I actually play the games, I will also focus on Italy and New Zealand (in that order, should there be a need to play each other).

So the way this will work, is since the World Cup mode is still the 32 nation version - I will do groups A-H in one run through, then set up a second World Cup where Groups I-L will fill in A-D, so that way all group matches are played.

I'm going to have to keep a spreadsheet here to keep track of all results and groups manually, as I'll need to work out the 3rd places and the knockout bracket (which will take place as a Custom Cup, rather than a World Cup) and then go from there



I'm letting the game pick the first line up - but for anyone that follows (since I'll probably only do one match a day on the sim, giving us all a bit of time to discuss), we can decide on the starting line ups for subsequent games (again, the squad is in the post above).


Wow - ChatGPT was so close to getting this right, even if Maty Ryan looks a little like an extra Hemsworth brother.

Corrections: Lewis Miller is a late change for Aziz Behich.

Left off matchday squad:
4. Kye Rowles
12. Paul Izzo
13. Aiden O'Neill

 

[NicCarBel]

I would imagine Besart Berisha is all over the pre match for this one

 

[NicCarBel]

USA with a 2-0 defeat of Paraguay in the other game


After 32 games (matchday 1 of Groups A-H, and Matchdays 1 and 2 of Groups I-L), there have been 73 goals scored by 59 individual goalscorers.




Please note that - until all groups are completed, I'm only ordering the Group standings by:

1. Points
2. Goal Difference across all games
3. Goals For across all games
4. Alphabetically

Once all group games are completed, I will work out the actual standings (included 3rd placed teams advancing) using the actual method, which has head to head Points > GD > GF as the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rankings.

Also of note is, after Goals Scored across all games, the next tiebreaker is generally disciplinary record. However, there's no way for me to capture all the bookings across the tournament short of watching every single game - so if this does eventuate, I will be skipping that and moving to the final tie-breaker: FIFA Ranking (which has replaced the drawing of lots this year)

I will run the simulation for Matchday 2 against USA later today. Here's the automatically rotated line-up selected by the game:

Starting 11:
1. Mat Ryan (GK)
3. Lewis Miller
5. Jordan Bos
7. Nestory Irankunda
8. Connor Metcalfe
11. Craig Goodwin
15. Mitch Duke
19. Harry Souttar
22. Jackson Irvine
23. Alessandro Circati (C)
26. Patrick Yazbek

Subs:
2. Milos Degenek
6. Martin Boyle
9. Mo Toure
10. Ajdin Hrustic
13. Aiden O'Neill
14. Riley McGree
16. Aziz Behich
18. Joe Gauci (GK)
20. Max Balard
21. Cameron Burgess
24. Brandon Borrello
25. Jason Geria

Left off matchday squad:
4. Kye Rowles
12. Paul Izzo
17. Cameron Devlin

 

[JS96]

Spoiler: Australia's Group Standings after Matchday 1

View attachment 5278
USA with a 2-0 defeat of Paraguay in the other game

After 32 games (matchday 1 of Groups A-H, and Matchdays 1 and 2 of Groups I-L), there have been 73 goals scored by 59 individual goalscorers.

View attachment 5275
View attachment 5276
View attachment 5277
Please note that - until all groups are completed, I'm only ordering the Group standings by:

1. Points
2. Goal Difference across all games
3. Goals For across all games
4. Alphabetically

Once all group games are completed, I will work out the actual standings (included 3rd placed teams advancing) using the actual method, which has head to head Points > GD > GF as the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rankings.

Also of note is, after Goals Scored across all games, the next tiebreaker is generally disciplinary record. However, there's no way for me to capture all the bookings across the tournament short of watching every single game - so if this does eventuate, I will be skipping that and moving to the final tie-breaker: FIFA Ranking (which has replaced the drawing of lots this year)

I will run the simulation for Matchday 2 against USA later today. Here's the automatically rotated line-up selected by the game:

Starting 11:
1. Mat Ryan (GK)
3. Lewis Miller
5. Jordan Bos
7. Nestory Irankunda
8. Connor Metcalfe
11. Craig Goodwin
15. Mitch Duke
19. Harry Souttar
22. Jackson Irvine
23. Alessandro Circati (C)
26. Patrick Yazbek

Subs:
2. Milos Degenek
6. Martin Boyle
9. Mo Toure
10. Ajdin Hrustic
13. Aiden O'Neill
14. Riley McGree
16. Aziz Behich
18. Joe Gauci (GK)
20. Max Balard
21. Cameron Burgess
24. Brandon Borrello
25. Jason Geria

Left off matchday squad:
4. Kye Rowles
12. Paul Izzo
17. Cameron Devlin

This, but, have you been up all night playing games?

 

[NicCarBel]

This, but, have you been up all night playing games?

Yes

Exhausted myself all day and slept from 5-10pm though, so.. got another big giant morning sleep in today

 

[NicCarBel]

Alrighty, I see no further input to the starting lineup for matchday 2 against USA - so we are minutes from kickoff!
I will be simulating the rest of the Groups I-J this evening as well.

 

[NicCarBel]

Oh wow, I think it actually made Metcalfe react to getting a rebound in the Crown Jewels - now that’s immersion

 

[NicCarBel]

Hmm.. not great at all - I'm going to vote Lewis Miller gets replaced for game 3

Here's where everything stands heading into Game 3 - will be simulating Groups I, J, K and L shortly

 

[NicCarBel]

I'm going to go ahead with the final match with the AI / in-game suggested rotations (with the additional change of Jason Geria for Lewis Miller)


Don't know why the prompt changed this one so much - but the away kit on this graphic kinda looks like the projected one for the actual World Cup, so let's leave it (even if they have spelt some names wrong...)

I have already simulated Groups I-H - based off those results, I think Australia needs a win to advance, or for ultimate shithousery, a 5-5 draw may be enough (it has to be at least a 5-5 draw for a draw to even think about advancing). Austria, Norway, Croatia and Uzbekistan have played all 3 of their games at this point (the 5-5 draw is to jump Croatia)

 

[NicCarBel]

Updating results/standings, etc and match upload of the Paraguay game soon. Let's just say hope you all brought your cowboy hats

 

[NicCarBel]

Here are the final results from all group games, and the standings:


Australia have advanced with that goal from Duke - Without it (and presumably another 0-0 draw) the Socceroos would have been consigned to third place in the group (more on that below)

Now, from what I can see - there were no 2nd/3rd places decided by Head to Head (anyone tied in 2nd/3rd, or 3rd/4th had drawn against eachother - with the exception of Qatar and Canada - however Qatar did also finish with the overall higher GD regardless), however both Italy and Morocco advance as Group winners ahead of Switzerland and Brazil by virtue of Head to Head, despite overall lower GD than the other.

Now, we have the Third Place Standings

So, Kosovo do advance from our group with three 0-0 draws. Without Duke's goal, Australia would have finished ranked 10th of the 12 third place nations (with Saudi Arabia advancing). However, in the end, Saudi Arabia miss out by two goals, and we do not need to worry about FIFA Rankings for who advances. Third place from groups A, B, C, D, E, G, I and J will advance to the knockouts, so I will now work out what that means for the knockout fixtures.

However, as Australia advance as runners up, their Round of 32 fixture is set, and we finally have a chance to seek revenge for 1997 against Iran in Dallas.

 

[NicCarBel]

Great, because of a glitch in the setup - it randomly adds games and stuff to only your group, made Australia knocked out in the 32 team thing, so I wasn't able to see who scored in the 3rd games for Groups A-H (other than Duke of course), so when I have the final scorers list, it will be missing all those goals, so the golden boot won't be fully accurate.

 

[NicCarBel]

Alright I have time. Some changes have been made to the line up. Kick off vs Iran is upon us

 

[NicCarBel]

 

[NicCarBel]

Two versions of the bracket (as my spreadsheet will be keeping track of Extra time and Penalties, because the main one doesn't



Australia avenge their demons from 1997 in dominating fashion, and now head to Atlanta for a second Round of 16 date against defending champions Argentina - who may be worse off for wear after being taken to extra time by Spain.

Surely an unchanged line-up after that match.

 

[NicCarBel]

 

[NicCarBel]

I might actually live stream this one for the lulz




WOW WHAT A PERFORMANCE!

Top 3 in the Golden Boot race with the Quarter Finals coming (noting that Groups A-H's 3rd group games - except Australia's - for some reason didn't record the goal scorers)

 

[NicCarBel]

Who is ready for Quarter Final night?

Popa has decided to not tinker with what's working, and is starting the same line up for the third game in a row..