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CAF WC 26 Qualifying

Neither CAF nor FIFA have made an official announcement on how Eritrea's withdrawal will affect the rankings of the group runners-up, resulting in not all groups having the same number of teams.
 
Nigeria are well and truly stuffed. The other games to be played will greatly affect the 2nd place table. More games later tonight for a bit more clarification.
 
Ghana are sorted while Madagascar are doing everything to have a strong 2nd place claim.
 
Namibia slipped up meaning a playoff will be hard to get. Gabon look to be secured as one of the 4 but could still win the group themselves.

I'm still confused as the CAF haven't made a decision on whether last placed opponent results will count due to some withdrawals. That may shake it up.
 
As it currently stands - best 2nd place teams CAF:
Cameroon 7 4 2 1 14 5 +9 14
Madagascar 7 4 1 2 10 7 +3 13
Gabon 6 4 1 1 9 6 +3 13*
Burkina Faso 7 3 3 1 10 6 +4 12
Uganda 7 4 0 3 10 7 +3 12
Niger 7 4 0 3 10 10 +0 12
South Africa 7 3 2 2 9 8 +1 11
DR Congo 6 3 1 2 8 5 +3 10*
Namibia 7 2 3 2 8 7 +1 9

*still to play its MD 9 fixture.
 
Wow Benin win late in Rwanda giving themselves a chance as they go to Nigeria on the final day. South Africa only goalless with Zimbabwe but they're in second with a home game against Rwanda to finish.
 
CAF (last day of regular group play)
  1. Egypt has qualified
  2. Senegal will qualify with at least a draw against Mauritania - or a loss under certain circumstances
    1. DR Congo will qualify with a victory over Sudan, and a Senegal loss - with an 8 goal turnaround
  3. Benin will qualify with a victory over Nigeria. There are other scenarios too, but will look at them with the other nations.
    1. South Africa will qualify with a victory over Rwanda AND a Nigeria victory over Benin, OR in the event Nigeria and Benin draw, will need to defeat Rwanda by 2 goals or more.
    2. Nigeria will qualify with a victory of 2 goals or more over Benin AND South Africa failing to defeat Rwanda.
  4. Cape Verde will qualify with a victory over Eswatini. A draw will also suffice, if Cameroon fail to defeat Angola
    1. Cameroon will qualify with a victory over Angola AND Cape Verde failing to defeat Eswatini.
  5. Morocco has qualified
  6. Ivory Coast will qualify with a victory over Kenya, OR a draw provided Gabon fail to defeat Burundi.
    1. Gabon will qualify with a victory over Burundi, AND Ivory Coast fail to defeat Kenya. A Gabon - Burundi draw can see them qualify, IF Ivory Coast also are defeated by 12 goals.
  7. Algeria has qualified
  8. Tunisia has qualified
  9. Ghana will qualify with at least a draw against Comoros. A loss against Comoros will only see them fail to qualify if Madagascar defeats Mail AND an 8 goal turnaround
 
NicCarBel

Post in thread 'WC 2026 Seedings'

I can't be bothered looking for the original - will update and copypasta this post sometime tomorrow, and then again on Wednesday afternoon (after all qualifiers for this window are complete)

CURRENT PROJECTED QUALIFICATION SLOTS (based SOLELY off Current Group Standings, and then FIFA Rankings to decide playoff participants/winners/etc

Bold = already qualified for that stage/World Cup finals
Pots + rankings to come after work (and playoff paths, I might try and work that out too as best I can)

CURRENT as of 14/10/2025 3pm AEDT

CONCACAF
  1. USA (16)
  2. Canada...
  • Like
 
Cape Verde are 2:0 and should be fine. Amazing!
 
Mali were pot 1 and couldn't even help dent Ghana while the other minnows worked really hard.
 
It's just occurred to me that the CAF playoffs are to determine a single intercontinental playoff team. Still holding true to its cut-throat pathway.

Nigeria and South Africa's group has terrible cards for the 2nd placed team so they'd better hope Benin slips. I'd love Benin to qualify.
 
JS96 said:
Cape Verde are 2:0 and should be fine. Amazing!
Click to expand...
Cape Verde end up winning 3-0 over Eswatini and become the second smallest nation ever after Iceland to reach the World Cup in their final matchday of CAF World Cup qualifiers.
 
Nigeria score inside 3min against Benin. I believe the 2nd placed team here has little chance of advancing so it's first place or nothing. Live table is still. Benin 1st of equal GD with Nigeria while. South Africa a point behind and goalless with Rwanda.
 
South Africa are up 2:0. Very good for them as they're now first and 1 point and 1 GD ahead and 2 GS of Benin. Benin to level and Rwanda to get a goal back makes it tight again.
 
South Africa have qualified. It appears Nigeria have snuck into the playoffs. As Zimbabwe finished last and Lesotho actually ended up 4th, the points against Zimbabwe don't count. That's 2 draws whereas wins against other teams maximises their point total.
 
CAF seems to be such a strong confederation. For only 4 of the 10 second best teams going through, and then only the very best of those qualifying only for a spot in the interconfederation play-off is pretty tough. Seems a lot harder road than AFC.
 
verrelli said:
CAF seems to be such a strong confederation. For only 4 of the 10 second best teams going through, and then only the very best of those qualifying only for a spot in the interconfederation play-off is pretty tough. Seems a lot harder road than AFC.
Click to expand...
Has always had a cut-throat aspect to qualifying over there.

I think the old system (with 5 slots) was 10 groups, with the winners qualifying for a home and away playoff against eachother, with the winners qualifying (no intercontinental playoffs for Africa)
 
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