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Football us life said:
36% is actually higher than I thought.

The federal government's legislated target is to have 82% of Australia's electricity powered by renewables by 2030. Sitting at a true national average of 36% means the nation needs to more than double its total green output in a very short time frame....3 and a half years??

And transitioning a grid fractured island continent where heavy industry is locked in the desert and the cities are separated by thousands of kilometers of empty space shows exactly why a complete, national 2050 Net Zero target looks like a monumental uphill battle.
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yer I have to see it to believe it - also talk is cheap whereas laying out a actual/projected "cost" plan And having it go through seamless just isn't Aussie any more Thanks Not to a number of barriers put up the modern times.
OH&S (talking getting man labour and work done), compliances, red tape over red tape.
We have set up to make it harder to move forward in everything.
Dreaming !

I had been a regular China biz visitor pre covid some 30/40 times - I just returned from my first of many ahead post covid.
Now were talking the CCP eh, by the way Jingping only recently changed the law normally you govern 2 terms.
Yes, a law was changed to remove presidential term limits, which allows Xi Jinping to remain in power indefinitely. In March 2018, China's parliament, the National People's Congress, passed a constitutional amendment that eliminated the two-term limit on the presidency
The 2018 Amendment: The National People's Congress voted nearly unanimously (2,958 to 2) to alter the 1982 constitution. This removed the ten-year cap on presidential service.

I'm mentioning this purely on the base's of continuity.......
He cleaned out the countless messy/sub standard factories being they are such manufacturing power house now having everyone by the balls, volumes are massive you need good factories and improved pollution standards.
A lot more filtration systems imposed, the massive increase of EV's on their roads I noticed the air quality has improved 100% compared to per covid.
They build infrastructure in no time for new Industrial developments typically.
No mucking about waiting on report after a million like here - whereas we once we're far more productive.
Their car boom, they got so much IP from Euro/American grandfather companies they have helped cooking their goose's the last 50yrs.
You cannot believe how many EV's are there.
There is up to 100 brands give or take.
At the bottom end (brand quality wise) you get into a mid size EV SUV for around A$10K !
I travelled all round Shanghai for days then 3/5hrs south remaining days.
Chargers everywhere.
Petrol is expensive purposely :) mind you many still around might I add.
New car ICE sales are around 40%.
Coal currently accounts for roughly 51% to 60% of China's electricity supply and makes up about half of its primary energy mix. Despite an aggressive rollout of renewables, China's coal reliance remains deep-rooted due to structural grid inertia and energy security policies.

The tech advancements they can implement and do it - we can't part due to what you said, geography etcetc......

Whereas I was in KL the previous week, their Gov polar opposite.
ICE rules and being a oil producer.
They subside fuel greatly to manage their cost of living and prevent widespread inflation.
Now how about all these type of Nations that are similar to introduce a green outlook intent hahaha
Good luck.
 
Why are you both saying renewables are 36% of generation?

OpenElectricity, which tracks live energy generation in Australia and is authoritative, has renewables at 44.5% of generation over the past full year in the National Electricity Market, plus another 1.3% from batteries (which are largely charged by renewables). Here's the website if you want to play around yourself: https://openelectricity.org.au/ It's an amazing resource and I look at it almost weekly. It also tracks all energy facilities, including those under construction and committed.

I suspect your 36% figure is a couple of years out of date. Things are moving really, really quickly.
 
because there is many sites to get figures hence the conflict.
yes I re checked was '24 and its a gov site energy.gov.au unlike a UNSW energy research institute you passed on..
8% huge jump not to me and who's right - we'd look up another 5/6 if we like and find different figures.
That's another issue the way I see it.
 
LFC said:
yer I have to see it to believe it - also talk is cheap whereas laying out a actual/projected "cost" plan And having it go through seamless just isn't Aussie any more Thanks Not to a number of barriers put up the modern times.
OH&S (talking getting man labour and work done), compliances, red tape over red tape.
We have set up to make it harder to move forward in everything.
Dreaming !

I had been a regular China biz visitor pre covid some 30/40 times - I just returned from my first of many ahead post covid.
Now were talking the CCP eh, by the way Jingping only recently changed the law normally you govern 2 terms.
Yes, a law was changed to remove presidential term limits, which allows Xi Jinping to remain in power indefinitely. In March 2018, China's parliament, the National People's Congress, passed a constitutional amendment that eliminated the two-term limit on the presidency
The 2018 Amendment: The National People's Congress voted nearly unanimously (2,958 to 2) to alter the 1982 constitution. This removed the ten-year cap on presidential service.

I'm mentioning this purely on the base's of continuity.......
He cleaned out the countless messy/sub standard factories being they are such manufacturing power house now having everyone by the balls, volumes are massive you need good factories and improved pollution standards.
A lot more filtration systems imposed, the massive increase of EV's on their roads I noticed the air quality has improved 100% compared to per covid.
They build infrastructure in no time for new Industrial developments typically.
No mucking about waiting on report after a million like here - whereas we once we're far more productive.
Their car boom, they got so much IP from Euro/American grandfather companies they have helped cooking their goose's the last 50yrs.
You cannot believe how many EV's are there.
There is up to 100 brands give or take.
At the bottom end (brand quality wise) you get into a mid size EV SUV for around A$10K !
I travelled all round Shanghai for days then 3/5hrs south remaining days.
Chargers everywhere.
Petrol is expensive purposely :) mind you many still around might I add.
New car ICE sales are around 40%.
Coal currently accounts for roughly 51% to 60% of China's electricity supply and makes up about half of its primary energy mix. Despite an aggressive rollout of renewables, China's coal reliance remains deep-rooted due to structural grid inertia and energy security policies.

The tech advancements they can implement and do it - we can't part due to what you said, geography etcetc......

Whereas I was in KL the previous week, their Gov polar opposite.
ICE rules and being a oil producer.
They subside fuel greatly to manage their cost of living and prevent widespread inflation.
Now how about all these type of Nations that are similar to introduce a green outlook intent hahaha
Good luck.
Click to expand...


Ecologists and climate scientists are exceptionally good at defining the destination—the carbon budgets, the parts-per-million limits, and the ecological necessity of stopping warming.

But traditional, pragmatic economists look at the journey, and they see a massive disconnect between political rhetoric and economic reality.

When mainstream economists critique how Net Zero is being handled, they aren't necessarily denying the science; they are pointing out that the current policy design violates basic economic principles, leading to massive inefficiencies, hidden costs, and waste....

I think that perhaps the net-zero plan has an economic blindspot. Ecologists point out where we need to go, but economists warn the journey is too rushed. Using government subsidies instead of a simple pollution tax creates huge bottlenecks. It drives up power bills, strains the workforce, and triggers inflation which risks losing public support entirely.

I don't want it to have an economic blindspot....I want it to succeed but reality often has a habit of biting hard when lofty ideals collide with the laws of physics and economics.
 
Toebash said:
Why are you both saying renewables are 36% of generation?

OpenElectricity, which tracks live energy generation in Australia and is authoritative, has renewables at 44.5% of generation over the past full year in the National Electricity Market, plus another 1.3% from batteries (which are largely charged by renewables). Here's the website if you want to play around yourself: https://openelectricity.org.au/ It's an amazing resource and I look at it almost weekly. It also tracks all energy facilities, including those under construction and committed.

I suspect your 36% figure is a couple of years out of date. Things are moving really, really quickly.
Click to expand...

You are completely right, and I appreciate the correction. OpenElectricity is indeed the gold standard for tracking this live, and having the rolling 12-month average for the NEM sitting right at 44.5% (plus that extra 1.3% battery slice) paints an incredibly precise, up-to-the-minute picture.


But that 44.5% figure actually strengthens the core of the paradox we are looking at... .

On one hand, it shows that the physical "generation" part of the transition is an absolute powerhouse. Stepping back to look at the NEM being nearly halfway run on wind, solar, and hydro over a full annual cycle and including winter doldrums is an extraordinary achievement that almost no one would have predicted twenty or even ten years ago. The momentum there is absolutely massive.

But on the other hand, it highlights why the next phase is where reality bites the hardest. Going from 0% to 45% is about adding cheap generation to an existing grid. But then going from 45% to 82% (the 2030 target) or 100% is where you stop just "adding green power" and start having to completely re-engineer the entire system.

If you really dig deeply into OpenElectricity’s live data, it captures the exact point where the system transitions from a generation challenge to an integration challenge.

It's called The Curtailment Wall....

And even at 44.5%, the data shows that wind and solar are routinely being switched off because the grid physically cannot handle the surges.
 
Unfortunately the true answer to the Net Zero debate isn't an engineering choice or a political ideology. It is a lesson in humility.....

Because you cannot dismantle the foundation of modern society on a tight, artificial timeline without triggering intense economic and social friction. Reality doesn't care about targets; it operates on supply chains, engineering limits, and the laws of physics.

I wish it was all going to be easy and good fun along the way too but it's going to be a fucken hard slog....

And anyone pretending otherwise is selling something.

We are really living through a massive generational pivot point. For over a century, electricity was something most people never had to think about. You flicked a switch, a coal plant hundreds of kilometers away hummed along, and the lights came on. It was cheap, it was reliable, and it was invisible.

But now, here we are and we're asking society to rebuild the entire foundation of modern life in mid-air, while everything is still running. We are doing it in an environment of hyper-polarised politics, global supply chain chaos, and intense cost-of-living pressures. Every step forward whether it’s a new wind farm, a massive grid battery, or a proposed nuclear reactor is great but I get the feeling it's going to be fought over inch by inch......
 
Football us life said:
Unfortunately the true answer to the Net Zero debate isn't an engineering choice or a political ideology. It is a lesson in humility.....

Because you cannot dismantle the foundation of modern society on a tight, artificial timeline without triggering intense economic and social friction. Reality doesn't care about targets; it operates on supply chains, engineering limits, and the laws of physics.

I wish it was all going to be easy and good fun along the way too but it's going to be a fucken hard slog....

And anyone pretending otherwise is selling something.

We are really living through a massive generational pivot point. For over a century, electricity was something most people never had to think about. You flicked a switch, a coal plant hundreds of kilometers away hummed along, and the lights came on. It was cheap, it was reliable, and it was invisible.

But now, here we are and we're asking society to rebuild the entire foundation of modern life in mid-air, while everything is still running. We are doing it in an environment of hyper-polarised politics, global supply chain chaos, and intense cost-of-living pressures. Every step forward whether it’s a new wind farm, a massive grid battery, or a proposed nuclear reactor is great but I get the feeling it's going to be fought over inch by inch......
Click to expand...
yep you got that covered broadly........
I believe in cleaning up the air and everything else for we have been ruining the planet and for many many moons not realising.
TBH the ocean isn't spoken of enough any more compared to the early days of the Greens when they first came to be if I recall right.
This is just as important for I detest the the massive large commercial side of netting today let alone the amount of crap we have pumped into the ocean/rivers.
Huge changes but as you say its not as easy like in a Factory actioning a running change.
 
LFC said:
yep you got that covered broadly........
Click to expand...

And I stress Im not a climate change denier. I'd love to see it all work out without shit hitting the solar powered fan but....

I mean we all want a cleaner planet, cheaper bills, and reliable power.and it’s a beautiful vision.

The tragedy is that the laws of physics, human nature, and economics do not bend for good intentions.
 
Football us life said:
You are completely right, and I appreciate the correction. OpenElectricity is indeed the gold standard for tracking this live, and having the rolling 12-month average for the NEM sitting right at 44.5% (plus that extra 1.3% battery slice) paints an incredibly precise, up-to-the-minute picture.


But that 44.5% figure actually strengthens the core of the paradox we are looking at... .

On one hand, it shows that the physical "generation" part of the transition is an absolute powerhouse. Stepping back to look at the NEM being nearly halfway run on wind, solar, and hydro over a full annual cycle and including winter doldrums is an extraordinary achievement that almost no one would have predicted twenty or even ten years ago. The momentum there is absolutely massive.

But on the other hand, it highlights why the next phase is where reality bites the hardest. Going from 0% to 45% is about adding cheap generation to an existing grid. But then going from 45% to 82% (the 2030 target) or 100% is where you stop just "adding green power" and start having to completely re-engineer the entire system.

If you really dig deeply into OpenElectricity’s live data, it captures the exact point where the system transitions from a generation challenge to an integration challenge.

It's called The Curtailment Wall....

And even at 44.5%, the data shows that wind and solar are routinely being switched off because the grid physically cannot handle the surges.
Click to expand...

Curtailment will be much, much less of an issue in the near future because so many batteries are being added to the grid (this includes batteries on wheels, aka electric cars). Those batteries also mean you need fewer transmission lines, because the energy is being used where it was created (i.e. a solar battery hybrid) and doesn't need to be sent around the grid. Batteries are such a game changer it's ridiculous, honestly.

My understanding is that getting the national energy market (the grid which covers all of Australia except WA and NT) to over 90% is actually pretty straightforward; it's the last few percent that will be difficult. By way of proof, South Australia is currently at 75% average yearly renewable generation with limited (though increasing) batteries and interconnection. Historically SA could only export about 750MW at any one time to the other states, but it's gone to 1,700 MW literally today with the energisation of Project Energy Connect.

It's very exciting times in the energy transition and there's much cause to be optimistic so long as the political will remains (though the way things are currently going we might be back to the dark ages...)
 
Toebash said:
Curtailment will be much, much less of an issue in the near future because so many batteries are being added to the grid (this includes batteries on wheels, aka electric cars). Those batteries also mean you need fewer transmission lines, because the energy is being used where it was created (i.e. a solar battery hybrid) and doesn't need to be sent around the grid. Batteries are such a game changer it's ridiculous, honestly.

My understanding is that getting the national energy market (the grid which covers all of Australia except WA and NT) to over 90% is actually pretty straightforward; it's the last few percent that will be difficult. By way of proof, South Australia is currently at 75% average yearly renewable generation with limited (though increasing) batteries and interconnection. Historically SA could only export about 750MW at any one time to the other states, but it's gone to 1,700 MW literally today with the energisation of Project Energy Connect.

It's very exciting times in the energy transition and there's much cause to be optimistic so long as the political will remains (though the way things are currently going we might be back to the dark ages...)
Click to expand...


While I totally agree that batteries and projects like South Australia’s Project EnergyConnect are revolutionary, they highlight rather than dismiss the massive grid integration challenge ahead.

South Australia’s new $2.3 billion transmission line proves that localised batteries alone cannot handle massive renewable gluts;....

The state physically required a massive "extension cord" to NSW to export excess power and maintain stability. Furthermore, relying on "batteries on wheels" (EVs) ignores human behaviour, as cars are rarely plugged into bidirectional chargers during peak midday solar curtailment..


And transitioning from 45% to 82% renewables isn't a linear progression of adding cheaper generation. It requires completely re-engineering the grid's underlying infrastructure and it's physics, replacing the mechanical inertia of retiring coal plants, and building extensive new transmission infrastructure to connect remote energy zones.

This generation tech is cheap, but the humongous system integration costs break the bank.


Fir example, the skyrocketing commodity and labour inflation have driven transmission asset costs up by onwards of 50% and it's climbing. Also the achieving of grid reliability requires overbuilding capacity threefold to combat winter lows, alongside billions in community compensation payouts to secure vital grid land.

And whike their intentions are of course good, the green lobby often treats the grid like a giant Lego set...

They assume that if you just snap cheap wind and solar pieces together, a clean grid magically appears for free. But they routinely ignore the staggering cost of the "glue" required to hold those pieces together.

There is a massive disconnect between "spreadsheet engineering" and real-world economics.
 
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Labor has "locked down" ( pardon the pun) Victorian politics since 2014 with those three straight wins (big majorities in 2018/2022)....

The big reason?

Melbourne and its booming outer suburbs hold most of the seats. That's where young families, migrants, public servants with their gold plated pensions and progressive voters stack up heavily for Labor.


The electoral map wastes a lot of Coalition and One Nation votes out in the regions. Preferential voting lets Labor win on lower primaries if preferences flow their way. Add in a ruthless party machine, the "we build stuff" incumbency spin and constant LNP Opposition infighting.

Even with crap polls now and trippers One Nation splitting the right, geography + preferences could still deliver them another minority or narrow win in November.

Inner city green voters keep the streak alive too often "preferencing" Labor. Sometimes religiously!!

Coalition needs approx 32-35%+ primary vote, strong One Nation prefs flowing their way, and a solid 54%+ TPP swing to crack Melbourne's suburban seats..

Win the marginals in outer growth areas. Fix right-wing vote splitting or inner-city Green hipster prefs will keep trendy Labor clinging on. Geography, as always in Australian politics is the killer here!!
 
Football us life said:
Labor has "locked down" ( pardon the pun) Victorian politics since 2014 with those three straight wins (big majorities in 2018/2022)....

The big reason?

Melbourne and its booming outer suburbs hold most of the seats. That's where young families, migrants, public servants with their gold plated pensions and progressive voters stack up heavily for Labor.


The electoral map wastes a lot of Coalition and One Nation votes out in the regions. Preferential voting lets Labor win on lower primaries if preferences flow their way. Add in a ruthless party machine, the "we build stuff" incumbency spin and constant LNP Opposition infighting.

Even with crap polls now and trippers One Nation splitting the right, geography + preferences could still deliver them another minority or narrow win in November.

Inner city green voters keep the streak alive too often "preferencing" Labor. Sometimes religiously!!

Coalition needs approx 32-35%+ primary vote, strong One Nation prefs flowing their way, and a solid 54%+ TPP swing to crack Melbourne's suburban seats..

Win the marginals in outer growth areas. Fix right-wing vote splitting or inner-city Green hipster prefs will keep trendy Labor clinging on. Geography, as always in Australian politics is the killer here!!
Click to expand...


Probably need a few Victorian members to give us the "word on the street...."
 
Sharkman84 said:
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has ripped into Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and the Liberal Party, suggesting that billionaire Gina Rinehart is calling the shots.

Click to expand...

I'm sure she let her borrow her plane because she's just a really good mate and obviously not to have subtle influence over policy decisions that would benefit her.
 
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