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Asian Champions League 1 and 2 thread

gorgeous goal

gorgeous assist too even though it only created half a chance

imagine if we win from here
 
unnescessary foul there...dangeorus free kick
 
attacking change here

mehmeti is pretty good at finding himself in dangerous positions but yet to be clinical
 
I'd be happy with just 3 points from these three South Korean matches. A win or three draws, I'll take it haha
 
that was horrid decision making from kanamori
 
been giving space for shots from distance all night and that required some saving there

Beach up to the job though
 
would like to see that off side again

normally with var they let the play play out...
 
Strange that the broadcast goes silent after the end of game. Must pay commentators on per minute basis.
 
remaining matches

Sanfrecce (11 pts) v Johor (8)
Vissel (13) Fc Seoul (9)
Shenhua (4) Zelvia (11)
Gwangon (7) Shanghai Port (4)
Ulsan (8) City (10)
Chengdu (6) Buriram (8)

Machida Zelvia (11) Chengdu (6)
Seoul (9) Sanfrecce (11)
Johor (8) Vissel (13)
Buriram (8) Shanghai Shenhua (4)
City (10) Gangwon (7)
Shanghai Port (4) Ulsan (8)

If City draw against Gangwon or better I don't see how they miss out as that means they require 8 teams to end up on at least 11 points with none having a worse goal difference in order for City to miss out

If they get 3 points in either game they are gauranteed I believe as that would require 8 other teams on 13 points to kick them out
 
If ChatGTP is really doing this I'm very impressed. I asked it to run a similuation on possible results doing a points only simulation to ignore goal difference

I’ve checked the full enumeration of all 3¹² = 531,441 possible results for the 12 remaining matches you supplied, using the correct rule (City fails only when ≥ 8 other teams finish with strictly more points than City). Here are the corrected counts conditioned on City finishing with the point totals you asked about:

  • Case A — City finishes on​

    • Total outcome combinations with City = 10: 59,049.
      • Eliminated by points (S ≥ 8): 10,152 combinations — 17.19%.
      • Tie for 8th (S < 8 and S+T > 8): 27,918 combinations — 47.28%.
      • Safe by points (S+T ≤ 8): 20,979 combinations — 35.53%.
  • Interpretation: losing both matches (ending on 10) produces many tie scenarios — in nearly half of the outcome space City is tied across the 8th line and would need tiebreakers to know whether they qualify.

    Case B — City finishes on​

    • Total outcome combinations with City = 11: 118,098.
      • Eliminated by points: 270 combinations — 0.23%.
      • Tie for 8th: 8,955 combinations — 7.58%.
      • Safe by points: 108,873 combinations — 92.19%.
  • Interpretation: finishing on 11 is much safer — elimination by pure points is extremely unlikely (0.23%). There is still a modest chance (~7.6%) that City will be in a tie that crosses the 8th spot and therefore depends on tiebreakers.

    Case C — City finishes on​

    • Total outcome combinations with City = 13: 118,098.
      • Eliminated by points: 0 combinations — 0.00%.
      • Tie for 8th: 0 combinations — 0.00%.
      • Safe by points: 118,098 combinations — 100.00%.
  • Interpretation: with 13 points City cannot finish 9th+ on points and there are no tie-for-8th scenarios — 13 points guarantees qualification on points alone.
 
city's gd isn't great, so they only qualify around a quarter of the time if they are tied in 8th

So 51% chance of qualifying on their current 10 points if they lose both matches, 94% chance if they draw one game and 100% chance if they win
 
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