Analytics, Metrics and Statistics - the death of football magic?

[Punchanello]

I'm looking for your thoughts on this.

Analytics, metrics and statistics have become a bigger and bigger part of the game especially over the past 10-15 years. Coaches rely on the numbers to understand the game more than ever before, recruitment decisions are more heavily based on metrics, poring over analytics has become part of the fan experience and player performances are measured by KPIs. That seems like a natural progression in a highly competitive and professionalised era of football. I have to admit I'm a nerd and I like to trawl stats. It's not necessarily a bad thing.

xG, for example, can provide a "statistical estimate of chance quality independent of actual outcomes". In fact, almost every analytic exists independently of the actual outcome. Possession, number of touches, heat maps, kms run etc. etc. None of these things tells me anything about the actual effectiveness or quality of a player or game.

I'm far from a luddite and I don't want to be one of those "the game was better in my day" types. But to me, there is some magic missing. The game has become more mechanical, players are no longer the protagonists in the same way and reduction of risk is valued higher than the pursuit of reward.

Thoughts?

 

[LFC]

my lol is purely that I'll sit back and wait for our fellow stat/geek/you nerdy types post more then I'll chime in from a laymans football analyst extraordinaire instead of the game was betta you know when hahaha
Mind you I am not a luddite either - I have to deal with KPI's, new business softwares etc but there is a line - oh I have a mobile also

 

[grazorblade]

Everyone enjoys the game in different ways. If it's killing your love for the game, I hope they figure our a way to make it easier for some fans to avoid all the technical analysis and stats so they can get what they love

 

[Punchanello]

Everyone enjoys the game in different ways. If it's killing your love for the game, I hope they figure our a way to make it easier for some fans to avoid all the technical analysis and stats so they can get what they love

I'll bite. Nothing can kill my love of the game.

What I'm saying is that it seems to me that football is becoming less compelling as a result of the over reliance on, and pursuit of metrics, by players and coaches and scouts. The metrics themselves are of course not the problem. They are interesting and useful when they are combined with the astute eye of someone who can read and understand the game without them.

I've increasingly heard players in interviews saying things along the lines of "coach wants to see me make 5 entries into the box every game and I've been hitting that". Hmmmm....

What about profiling? I want players over 5 ft 10 who run over 10km a match on average. You'd miss Messi like that.

One other example is England's squad at the WC. I can't help but feel that there were players left out that had x-factor, perhaps in favour of technical, high stamina, by the numbers players. It cost them.

On the other hand, there has been a positive in this approach. Lots of very flashy fan favourites with zero end product or work-rate get found out when you scan the numbers.

 

[melbcityguy]

I'll bite. Nothing can kill my love of the game.

What I'm saying is that it seems to me that football is becoming less compelling as a result of the over reliance on, and pursuit of metrics, by players and coaches and scouts. The metrics themselves are of course not the problem. They are interesting and useful when they are combined with the astute eye of someone who can read and understand the game without them.

I've increasingly heard players in interviews saying things along the lines of "coach wants to see me make 5 entries into the box every game and I've been hitting that". Hmmmm....

What about profiling? I want players over 5 ft 10 who run over 10km a match on average. You'd miss Messi like that.

One other example is England's squad at the WC. I can't help but feel that there were players left out that had x-factor, perhaps in favour of technical, high stamina, by the numbers players. It cost them.

On the other hand, there has been a positive in this approach. Lots of very flashy fan favourites with zero end product or work-rate get found out when you scan the numbers.

If a club is profiling and misses a superstar won't another club punish them by taking him? Like England didn't pick x factor players that's on the gaff that would have happened as well twenty years ago

 

[Punchanello]

If a club is profiling and misses a superstar won't another club punish them by taking him?

I don't know, I hope so. But how many sub 5"10 players do you see getting around at the elite level now compared to even 10 years ago? The global average height is 5'7 to 5'9. I think it's a trend. I think that more and more people in the game are relying too much on metrics and drive these trends. It creates artificial standards that we then all assume are ideal.

Players tend to look more and more the same. Same size, same physical attributes, same values.

Like England didn't pick x factor players that's on the gaff that would have happened as well twenty years ago

You have a point . Maybe England was the wrong example.

 

[Monoethnic Social Club]

Everyone enjoys the game in different ways. If it's killing your love for the game, I hope they figure our a way to make it easier for some fans to avoid all the technical analysis and stats so they can get what they love

Well said.. There are NO stats at a live football match and its easy to avoid that "punditry"

 

[Punchanello]

Well said.. There are NO stats at a live football match and its easy to avoid that "punditry"

Yes, it is well said and I would agree if the problem I was posing was that I didn't like seeing, digesting or understanding stats.....which I wasn't.

 

[Punchanello]

Yes, it is well said and I would agree if the problem I was posing was that I didn't like seeing, digesting or understanding stats.....which I wasn't.

That came off way harsher than I meant it

 

[Monoethnic Social Club]

Yes, it is well said and I would agree if the problem I was posing was that I didn't like seeing, digesting or understanding stats.....which I wasn't.

Fair enough, My thoughts on your question are that stats and metrics have been creeping into football tactics since some Hungarian dude decided that England was beatable at Wembley if they got Puskas on the ball more lol...

But seriously, broadcasting revenue and subsequent finance has enabled an evolution (not the invention) of what statistics are deemed beneficial to sport science and tacticians within each organisation. There is more money int eh game, more gambling, more investors looking to make an ROI, therefore the result of a football match has gone from being an emotional expression of a group of people to a financial transaction for a group of professionals.

Wanting to gain a competitive edge has lead to some of the biggest "Leaps' in how the game is played. Yes I agree, at the moment, the European game seems pretty robotic (for lack of a better word) but that doesnt mean that the whole of football moves in the same direction at the same time. Todays xG will be tomorrows counting how many times a player touches the ballk one ach side of the body.. IMO

 

[Punchanello]

Wanting to gain a competitive edge has lead to some of the biggest "Leaps' in how the game is played. Yes I agree, at the moment, the European game seems pretty robotic (for lack of a better word) but that doesnt mean that the whole of football moves in the same direction at the same time. Todays xG will be tomorrows counting how many times a player touches the ballk one ach side of the body.. IMO

Yes I agree.

I was having a chat with younger bloke and he asked me where the players that brought big personality, big game-changing moments and invented new archetypes almost on their own. I hadn't thought about it like that but it's true that it wasn't so long ago you could see Maldini, Beckham, Carlos, Ronaldinho and Zlatan on any given European night.

We agreed we were watching the last two (Messi and Cringe Ronaldo) of that breed. Both are playing to a superhuman age and neither has been challenged for that top two in a decade. The last two world cup winners were position for position, kind off average when you compare them to previous winners. Even previous losers from the same countries. Brazil is a text-book case study of how you a team of world beating superstars to dull spanners in a generation. It was a deliberate strategy to reduce touches and dribbling in transition.

We didn't solve the why (obviously) but thought that one of the culprits was a preference for robotic reliability coming out of an overreliance on analytics.

 

[Monoethnic Social Club]

Yes I agree.

I was having a chat with younger bloke and he asked me where the players that brought big personality, big game-changing moments and invented new archetypes almost on their own. I hadn't thought about it like that but it's true that it wasn't so long ago you could see Maldini, Beckham, Carlos, Ronaldinho and Zlatan on any given European night.

We agreed we were watching the last two (Messi and Cringe Ronaldo) of that breed. Both are playing to a superhuman age and neither has been challenged for that top two in a decade. The last two world cup winners were position for position, kind off average when you compare them to previous winners. Even previous losers from the same countries. Brazil is a text-book case study.

We didn't solve the why (obviously) but thought that one of the culprits was a preference for robotic reliability coming out of an overreliance on analytics.

I partially agree. Each age of football will have its characters... My father claims Pele is the GOAT, for me its Diego and my son thinks its Messi.. we cant all be right but I don't hink we are all wrong either.

Todays player do seem a little "dull" compared to our idols but today's fans also value different things. Not only in football, but in music, in fashion, in movies in culture, in life in general...

 

[Punchanello]

I partially agree. Each age of football will have its characters... My father claims Pele is the GOAT, for me its Diego and my son thinks its Messi.. we cant all be right but I don't hink we are all wrong either.

Todays player do seem a little "dull" compared to our idols but today's fans also value different things. Not only in football, but in music, in fashion, in movies in culture, in life in general...

Honestly, we all remember the old blokes around the dinner table saying the exact same stuff and I'm aware of the irony. But I do think there is some truth to the fact that there are certain things that can't be measured in a conventional way. They don't show up in the numbers and can't be trained. It takes an astute eye to identify them and a level of bravery to let them flourish. I don't know tha is happening as much as it should.

 

[LFC]

I partially agree. Each age of football will have its characters... My father claims Pele is the GOAT, for me its Diego and my son thinks its Messi.. we cant all be right but I don't hink we are all wrong either.

GOATS are one side of the ledger and naturally change from gen to gen characters are the support cast that are greatly needed and part of the fabric decade to decade as well, the mention of Zlatan types, Best/Gazzas/Batitusta's/Rossi's/Suarez/Keane's/Ramos/Cantona's - you know what I'm getting at........

Todays player do seem a little "dull" compared to our idols but today's fans also value different things. Not only in football, but in music, in fashion, in movies in culture, in life in general...

you mentioned in another thread people luv "drama" (the gayfl thread) - thats nothing different as the ages go by BUT yep today’s players are turning Vanilla ! barring the exceptions, they are becoming trained "geeks" stat this stat that runs their brain And in the end run us supporters.....
You then have these football analyst’s counter argue your open minded POV your out of touch - your behind the times or not on the pulse.

Music/fashion/movies are not team sport in comparison.

 

[Monoethnic Social Club]

Music/fashion/movies are not team sport in comparison.

I know they are not but todays kids dont value the same things we did is what I was trying to say. tastes change.. One generation's creative genius is another generations "doesn't have a good goal celebration tik tok"

 

[LFC]

Honestly, we all remember the old blokes around the dinner table saying the exact same stuff and I'm aware of the irony. But I do think there is some truth to the fact that there are certain things that can't be measured in a conventional way. They don't show up in the numbers and can't be trained.

This promising outlier player will be left out or trained out, its been happening at Jnr/SAP levels on for over a decade here.

It takes an astute eye to identify them and a level of bravery to let them flourish. I don't know tha is happening as much as it should.

The current/future geek TD's live off their tablets mate - it will only be the head strong coach who will over ride the "data/metrics" that if he hasn't been replaced by the Ai robot as well

 

[Keeper66]

The fascination with stats is going to become more intense as AI develops further. Currently I can get heaps of stats for every game for the team I coach from Veo cameras, including things like distance run, top speed, passing stats, heat maps by player by time period, passing patterns, game analysis, etc. And more stuff is being added all the time. And no fancy setups are needed, you just set up the Veo cam to record the game, download it after the game finishes, and everything happens automatically from there. No input needed from me, except to allocate a player number (shirt number) to a position in a formation that I specify. And it is all relatively cheap, I don't know the actual cost but I think a licence for one cam is in the region of a couple of thousand per year.

 

[Punchanello]

GOATS are one side of the ledger and naturally change from gen to gen characters are the support cast that are greatly needed and part of the fabric decade to decade as well, the mention of Zlatan types, Best/Gazzas/Batitusta's/Rossi's/Suarez/Keane's/Ramos/Cantona's - you know what I'm getting at........

I do. Even the (debateable) tier below that. The Fowlers, Mendietas, Crespos, Zamoranos, Riquelmes, Decos, Pires', Forlans and on and on.

 

[Football us life]

I'm looking for your thoughts on this.

Analytics, metrics and statistics have become a bigger and bigger part of the game especially over the past 10-15 years. Coaches rely on the numbers to understand the game more than ever before, recruitment decisions are more heavily based on metrics, poring over analytics has become part of the fan experience and player performances are measured by KPIs. That seems like a natural progression in a highly competitive and professionalised era of football. I have to admit I'm a nerd and I like to trawl stats. It's not necessarily a bad thing.

xG, for example, can provide a "statistical estimate of chance quality independent of actual outcomes". In fact, almost every analytic exists independently of the actual outcome. Possession, number of touches, heat maps, kms run etc. etc. None of these things tells me anything about the actual effectiveness or quality of a player or game.

I'm far from a luddite and I don't want to be one of those "the game was better in my day" types. But to me, there is some magic missing. The game has become more mechanical, players are no longer the protagonists in the same way and reduction of risk is valued higher than the pursuit of reward.

Thoughts?

What you are describing isn't luddism more it’s a lament for the soul of the game.....

Yes you can love the data like appreciating the cognitive depth and the sheer intellectual rigor required to analyse the game while simultaneously mourning what gets lost in the pursuit of perfection.

I'm less of a numbers man and more of a romantic. A purist. A connoisseur of the game’stheatre?

Analytics will tell us what happened and how efficiently it happened.

But what about the intangible?

Like momentum shifts driven by pure adrenaline, the psychological weight of a hostile crowd, or the sheer audacity of a player who decides to try something impossible simply because they feel like it.

The reasons most of us love football is because it's a chaotic canvas where the unexpected happens....

 

[Punchanello]

Like momentum shifts driven by pure adrenaline, the psychological weight of a hostile crowd, or the sheer audacity of a player who decides to try something impossible simply because they feel like it.

...the coach who instictively feels the tide is turning, calls in the changes, shifts the approach. How many subs changed games at the WC?