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2026 UEFA WC Qualification

Bit of a bummer our Pot having 4 known close suspects then again we know what were in for

Pot 2​

  • Colombia (14)
  • Uruguay (15)
  • Switzerland (17)
  • Japan (18)
  • Senegal (19)
  • Denmark (20)
  • Iran (21)
  • South Korea (23)
  • Australia (24)
  • Ecuador (25)
  • Norway (31)
  • Egypt (32)
 
LFC said:
Bit of a bummer our Pot having 4 known close suspects then again we know what were in for

Pot 2​

  • Colombia (14)
  • Uruguay (15)
  • Switzerland (17)
  • Japan (18)
  • Senegal (19)
  • Denmark (20)
  • Iran (21)
  • South Korea (23)
  • Australia (24)
  • Ecuador (25)
  • Norway (31)
  • Egypt (32)
Click to expand...
Is this current? Looks like we have room for error and probably make pot 2
 
NicCarBel said:
Yes, this is assuming that all group standings across each continent remain the same, and using the current world rankings
Click to expand...
It's worth noting as well, the four projected playoff nations from Europe will be the following, but is still possible for Germany, Belgium and Austria to all win their groups:

  • UEFA 1 - Germany
  • UEFA 2 - Italy
  • UEFA 3 - Belgium
  • UEFA 4 - Austria
This would mean Slovakia, North Macedonia and Bosnia & Herzegovina would all get knocked into the playoffs, and shift us down 3 spots in the pot/seedings.

Italy I would put in this position as well, but - as I've worked out, they essentially need Norway to drop points before the last day OR win by an average of 4.25 goals across their remaining 4 games - so I believe they are essentially consigned to the playoffs regardless.
 
NicCarBel said:
Yes, this is assuming that all group standings across each continent remain the same, and using the current world rankings
Click to expand...
Would feel more comfortable if we overtook iran or south korea

What are the permutations if we get 2 wins next window?
 
NicCarBel said:
It's worth noting as well, the four projected playoff nations from Europe will be the following, but is still possible for Germany, Belgium and Austria to all win their groups:

  • UEFA 1 - Germany
  • UEFA 2 - Italy
  • UEFA 3 - Belgium
  • UEFA 4 - Austria
This would mean Slovakia, North Macedonia and Bosnia & Herzegovina would all get knocked into the playoffs, and shift us down 3 spots in the pot/seedings.

Italy I would put in this position as well, but - as I've worked out, they essentially need Norway to drop points before the last day OR win by an average of 4.25 goals across their remaining 4 games - so I believe they are essentially consigned to the playoffs regardless.
Click to expand...
Today celebrating italy putting us in pot 2
Tomorrow dreading italy being drawn in our group of death
 
grazorblade said:
Would feel more comfortable if we overtook iran or south korea

What are the permutations if we get 2 wins next window?
Click to expand...
A victory over Canada : 1587.61 +4.74

Victory over USA after that (approximate, because their points would be based on first match results as well, so I'm just using current ratings): 1593.37 +5.76


Assuming everyone else stays stagnant, this would jump us up two spots (above Ecuador and South Korea)



Just had a look at upcoming fixtures for USA - and well.. could be a small golden opportunity for us. USA play Ecuador - and given that USA is seeded regardless, we'd want USA to win that (and then would also mean more points for us by beating them, should that eventuate).

In the instance that happens, our new points/rating/etc would be 1593.41 (so, +.04 better), but would mean Ecuador would drop down to 1583.80 after the first matchday.
 
NicCarBel said:
A victory over Canada : 1587.61 +4.74

Victory over USA after that (approximate, because their points would be based on first match results as well, so I'm just using current ratings): 1593.37 +5.76


Assuming everyone else stays stagnant, this would jump us up two spots (above Ecuador and South Korea)



Just had a look at upcoming fixtures for USA - and well.. could be a small golden opportunity for us. USA play Ecuador - and given that USA is seeded regardless, we'd want USA to win that (and then would also mean more points for us by beating them, should that eventuate).

In the instance that happens, our new points/rating/etc would be 1593.41 (so, +.04 better), but would mean Ecuador would drop down to 1583.80 after the first matchday.
Click to expand...
grazorblade said:
Would feel more comfortable if we overtook iran or south korea

What are the permutations if we get 2 wins next window?
Click to expand...


New rankings will be published by FIFA next week, but this website has worked them out already. Looks like I jumped the gun (rankings wise) for that projection list, so the seedings may have been slightly out

football-ranking.com

FIFA national team ranking - LIVE

FIFA football ranking calculator - LIVE - Ranks/points are updated daily.
football-ranking.com football-ranking.com

This is that sort of 20-30 gap where it looks like Pots 2 and 3 will split
1757488618758.png
Just remember, the weighting for WCQ matches is x25, rather than x10 for Friendlies - so expect the UEFA and CAF nations in this range to fluctuate more. It appears there would be two more International Windows (4 more matches - 2x October, and 2x November) which would finalise the seedings for the draw later this year.
 
Sorry to ask oh great one NCB not bothering to read fifa ranking mosh pit.
Why are friendlies in the mix of qualifying ?
Why isn’t the top 2 automatic qualifiers locked in a specific pot in the first place but leave the ones remaining in play offs get shuffled round the pots for eg ???
Hope I make sense
 
LFC said:
Sorry to ask oh great one NCB not bothering to read fifa ranking mosh pit.
Why are friendlies in the mix of qualifying ?
Why isn’t the top 2 automatic qualifiers locked in a specific pot in the first place but leave the ones remaining in play offs get shuffled round the pots for eg ???
Hope I make sense
Click to expand...
So it's all based on the FIFA rankings at the time of the draw (December 2025).

Unfortunately, FIFA and the confederations couldn't get their ducks in a row (what's new) and arrange qualifying processes that:
a) Finish at the same time, and
b) Have the same amount of games (or close to it)

This means we are in that sort of period where countries like us can only play friendlies, and our matches won't mean as much (although, our qualifying process does mean more games than UEFA and CAF and OFC as an example - but CONMEBOL has 2 more games, I think).

So, that's why we will see the countries finishing their qualification process over the next two windows (UEFA, CAF, CONCACAF, and the remaining games for AFC) move more rapidly up and down the rankings - the way these matches affect the rankings is more heavy.

Also, because 2022 saw the qualification process get dragged around due to COVID meant the final playoffs were held after what would be the final draw - so FIFA made the decision to put these playoff spots in the draw, despite the result not being final (eg AFC/CONMEBOL Playoff Winner was our place in the draw last time around). As these are not direct spots, FIFA made the (IMO correct) decision to make these unseeded, and thus in Pot 4.

UEFA and FIFA love playoffs it seems - they must be money spinners - so they've done the same again this time around, but on purpose from the get-go.

I wish it was the case that the seeds were based on something other than rankings (I did like the the 2006 and 2010 seeding system, where Pot 1 was the hosts, and the 7 nations with the best record over the previous 3 World Cups or something like that, and the other 3 pots were all solely based on geographic location).
 
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yer ok got it now Thanks.
Bloody FIFA.
Agree your last paragraph.
 
LFC said:
yer ok got it now Thanks.
Bloody FIFA.
Agree your last paragraph.
Click to expand...
Would be tough to do it geographically based now given the large amount of nations from each confederation (finding it hard to make combinations of 12 for pots in that instance).

But FIFA and the confederations really should have aligned qualifying processes to make rankings/timings more distributable (and this is why I hate the Who Cares League).
 
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