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Socceroos vs Canada/USA Oct 25

Paul01 said:
The answer is yes. I have been a referee for about 8 or 9 years officially mostly at association levels (mens, womens, boys, girls) and as well as youth NPL level in Western Sydney.
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Excellent!

I’m always seeking experienced ref opinions. Your recount of the event carries a lot of weight.

You make up 3 experienced refs on G and G, with NCB and Muz.
 
grazorblade said:
Would like to play euro countries to avoid injuries from travel but guessing none would be available
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AL players will come into the equation in the imminent future.

JS’s poster boy, Aziz B, will be in Socceroo squads soon, along with Villupillay, Goodwin, possibly Leckie, Caceres, et al.
 
JS96 said:
Quick glace sees most still with 2 games or friendlies sorted amongst themselves. Don't have the energy to trawl the wikis right now. Something will be announced soon you'd think.
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I think that the Czechs are only playing on 1 match days. Most others in top 50 are playing both matchdays
 
Decentric said:
I’ve reached the 45 min mark of the replay slowly recording stats and despite Rowles having difficulty jockeying, showing, delaying, and negating Buchanon’s pace, with 50/50 tackles, body on body duels and heading 1v1s, Rowles has a plus ledger in 1v1 duels.

Canada seem to have strict instructions to close down Rowles quickly, sprinting at him maniacally. They have effected a few turnovers against Rowles.

As I repeatedly suggest, watching live we are captured by big moments.

Also, Italiano is performing better in the slowed down replay, than I thought live. His technique has improved since I watched him for the Aus u23s.

Canada have a big central striker who is a handful for the Aus defence.
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I’ve just updated and checked.

In the first half Rowles has won 7 and lost 2 unique 1v1 duels in the first 45 mins. This is a ledger of plus 5.
 
I have a few stats from the first 45 mins.

I will post them in the Socceroo Match Stats Analysis thread.

In passing stats I have completely different figures for Canada and exactly the same for Aus from TV stats.

There is already info about 1v1s and who won most duels at 45 mins. For some reason it has been the most difficult to date to accrue data since Indonesia when Arnie was coach.
 
patjennings said:
Unfortunately the likelihood of a 64 team World cup will cut us completely out. Our best and only chance is the 2038 World Cup. We are currently excluded but could seek an exemption if it was still a 48 team World Cup for a joint bid with NZ. They would need to supply at least 3 stadiums - they only have 1 at the moment to show it is at least a partial OFC bid.

That means we would need 13 - a tall task but not impossible. The problem being as it always is would be access.

A 2038 bid is our only shot ever.

To win would need a huge alignment of things to go right.

I've started thinking about this since hearing Popa's interview.

I think we need to appoint John Coates to a Football tsar role.
We need to host a successful 2026 AFC Womens World Cup and probably the AFC Congress at the same time.
During the AFC Congress we need to win the 2032 Mens Asian Cup bid. We are the favourites but only a 30% chance.

Then comes the tricky bits

A bid for the 2038 World Cup would require reliance on a number of things. We really need Spain and France to vote for us for their influence in other confederations. We need to use John Coates IOC/FIFA links. James Johnsons links to Infantino, even King Charles Commonwealth links

Why we could win

Aus/NZ’s Equity Case:
  • 2010 OFC Precedent: The 2010 World Cup, intended for OFC (when Australia was a member), went to South Africa (CAF). Aus/NZ’s “Oceania’s turn” narrative resonates with CAF (e.g., Senegal, Mali) and smaller CONCACAF nations (e.g., Jamaica), emphasizing fairness for underrepresented regions.
  • US Hosting Frequency: A third US hosting (1994, 2026, 2038) fuels perceptions of Northern bias, especially after 2030’s UEFA-led Spain/Portugal/Morocco bid. This sways CAF (e.g., Zambia) and CONMEBOL (e.g., Paraguay) toward Aus/NZ to balance global hosting.
  • 2030 Northern Bias: Morocco’s limited role in 2030 (10-20 of 104 matches) reinforces UEFA dominance, pushing Southern Hemisphere support for Aus/NZ among CAF and CONMEBOL’s smaller nations.
France and Spain’s UEFA Defection:
  • France (francophone ties) and Spain (2030 co-host, South American links) shift from US to Aus/NZ, adjusting UEFA’s split from 41-14 to 39-16. Their equity stance sways ~5 CAF votes (francophone/North African, e.g., Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia) and ~3 CONMEBOL votes (e.g., Bolivia), amplifying Aus/NZ’s fairness narrative.
James Johnson’s Influence:
  • As CSB Group CEO (Canada, appointed May 2025) and ex-Football Australia CEO (2020–2025), Johnson leverages Commonwealth ties to secure Canada’s vote and ~3 Caribbean CONCACAF votes (e.g., Barbados, Antigua). His FIFA connections (until 2018) and CONCACAF ties (via Montagliani) add ~2 CAF votes, shifting CONCACAF to 28-13 and CAF to 19-35.
John Coates as Football Tsar:
  • John Coates AC, former Australian Olympic Committee president (1990–2022) and IOC vice-president (2013–2017, 2020–2024), acts as a key “football tsar.” His government ties (securing Brisbane 2032 Olympics funding) and IOC network (e.g., connections with Thomas Bach and African/Asian delegates) facilitate FIFA lobbying. Coates sways ~4 CAF votes (e.g., Uganda, Kenya via Olympic ties) and ~2 CONCACAF votes (e.g., Caribbean IOC affiliates). His 2011 FIFA reform advocacy enhances Aus/NZ’s credibility, reinforcing the 2032 Olympics’ $8.9B infrastructure legacy.
King Charles III’s Role:
  • As monarch of Australia, New Zealand, and head of the Commonwealth (since 2022), King Charles III provides symbolic and diplomatic support for the Aus/NZ bid. His patronage of Commonwealth sports initiatives (e.g., Commonwealth Games) and royal tours (e.g., planned 2026 Australia visit) amplify the bid’s global profile. Charles’ influence strengthens Commonwealth unity, swaying ~2 additional CONCACAF votes (e.g., Bahamas, Belize, via royal and Commonwealth ties) and ~2 CAF votes (e.g., Botswana, Eswatini, via Commonwealth sports networks). His endorsement, alongside Coates’ IOC clout, enhances Aus/NZ’s prestige, reinforcing the 2032 Olympics as a soccer-ready platform and countering US’s revenue narrative with cultural diplomacy.
2031 AFC Asian Cup and 2032 Brisbane Olympics:
  • Asian Cup Australia’s bid (decision ~2026) builds on 2015/2023 success, securing AFC’s full 47 votes (e.g., India, China, Indonesia) and showcasing infrastructure readiness..
  • Brisbane Olympics (2032): $8.9B investment, including a 55K-seat Brisbane Stadium, provides 10-12 FIFA-ready venues, countering US’s 2026 stadium advantage. Coates’ and Charles’ involvement elevates global appeal, swaying Commonwealth CONCACAF (e.g., Jamaica) and CAF’s smaller nations.
Time Zones and Logistics:
  • US Strengths: Evening game slots (8-10 PM Nigeria/Europe, UTC-4), shorter travel (7-9 hours, €500-€1000), and $2B+ revenue potential secure UEFA (39 votes), most CONCACAF (28), and CONMEBOL (7).
  • Aus/NZ Advantage: Perth-NZ spread (UTC+8 to +13) offers 1-3 PM Nigeria slots and aligns with AFC (5:30 PM India, 8 PM China). Olympics upgrades mitigate travel concerns (20-24 hours, €1500-€2500), though US retains a logistical edge.
Confederation Dynamics:
  • AFC (47 votes): Fully supports Aus/NZ due to regional ties, Asian Cup infrastructure, and commercial potential (3B+ population).
  • OFC (11 votes): Backs Aus/NZ for NZ’s co-hosting and 2010 equity precedent.
  • CAF (54 votes): Splits 19-35; Nigeria and South Africa favor US for revenue/logistics, but smaller/francophone nations (e.g., Senegal, Zambia) support Aus/NZ for equity, boosted by France/Spain, Johnson, Coates, and Charles’ Commonwealth ties.
  • CONCACAF (41 votes): Splits 28-13; Canada and Caribbean nations (e.g., Jamaica, Barbados, Bahamas) shift to Aus/NZ via Johnson’s and Charles’ Commonwealth ties, Coates’ IOC networks, and Olympics prestige.
  • CONMEBOL (10 votes): Splits 7-3; Spain’s influence sways smaller nations (e.g., Paraguay), but Brazil/Argentina favor US due to 2026/2030 ties.
  • UEFA (55 votes): Splits 39-16; Germany/Italy prioritize US time zones/revenue, despite France/Spain’s equity push.
An Aus/NZ’s victory hinges on a powerful equity narrative (2010 precedent, US hosting frequency, 2030 Northern bias), amplified by Johnson’s trans-Pacific lobbying, Coates’ government/IOC influence, and King Charles III’s symbolic Commonwealth leadership. The 2031 Asian Cup and 2032 Olympics provide infrastructure and prestige, outweighing the US’s logistical advantages (evening slots, cheaper travel, revenue). France/Spain’s defection, combined with Johnson, Coates, and Charles’ networks, secures critical CAF and CONCACAF swings.

Caveats:
  • Infantino’s 2027 term end would hurt
  • Anr AFC exemption denial would blow us out of the water.
  • A 64 team world cup bid would blow us out of the water - it will come - just when.
Conclusion: Aus/NZ’s could win 125-93 for a 48-team 2038 World Cup leverages equity, strategic lobbying from Johnson and Coates, and King Charles III’s Commonwealth diplomacy, overcoming US’s logistical and revenue strengths with decisive CAF/CONCACAF support.

There are 211 congress members - 111 wins. Not everything will go right but this will be our only shot ever!!!
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Many good and fantastic points but don't agree with "A 2038 bid is our only shot ever." There will be opportunities in the future

A World Cup in Australia (or even with New Zealand) as sole host with 48 nations is unlikely. I think a collaboration with Indonesia/ASEAN would increase the appeal. Maybe with a novelty Opening Game in Fiji/South Pacific.

I would have thought that South Korea's chance of getting the Men's Asian Cup were quite high. Also it have been a long 4 years since the Middle East would have last hosted and there would be pressure to play it in Middle East again.

We need to sort out tournament hosting in Victoria/ALF state and getting AFC/Middle East backing.

From next year onwards, there will be 4 international match days together in September/October - ideal for hosting mini tournament.

Is there a separate tournament hosting thread or should we start one?
 
Decentric said:
Also, Italiano is performing better in the slowed down replay, than I thought live. His technique has improved since I watched him for the Aus u23s.
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Thats good to know. Watching live he gave me the impression that he didn't do anything to embarrass himself but didn't do anything that said must be picked either. I think he needs to continue on the path he is on. If he doesn't measure up to a WC spot I hope he can get himself up there for the Asian Cup.
 
Decentric said:
AL players will come into the equation in the imminent future.

JS’s poster boy, Aziz B, will be in Socceroo squads soon, along with Villupillay, Goodwin, possibly Leckie, Caceres, et al.
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Vellupillay's injury is regrettable but I'd like to see Segecic get the nod. Goodwin is a must. The rest of the A League players can be spared. We've gotten by perfectly fine without them. Teague is another we haven't missed.
 
So looking forward to tomorrow's game, even though I won't be able to watch it live (unless a bit on my phone).

I'm expecting/hoping something like:

Ryan

Miller, Circati, Burgess, Rowles, Bos

Yazbek, Balard

Boyle, Metcalfe, Arzani

Duke

With Irankunda, Toure, O'Neill all to come on and hopefully both Devlin and Robertson to get minutes. Maybe Gauci also.

I know you read all my posts Popa, so over to you.
 
Mr Cleansheets said:
I believe Sigur won 19 duels and lost 1...

No doubt he celebrated long into the night.
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Watching the replay does often change my mind a lot because i tend to get a very different view of some things. Live i thought inserra was poot v italy but thought he was decent after watching the replay for example

Fotmob loved rowles, giving him a big score by half time, but live he looked a weakness. I did notice live that rowles and italiano were the pressing triggers for canada. So that was probably part of the picture

popparoos seem to want the first half to be a stalemate before in the 2nd half they press more actively, circati joins the midfield in possession and we are willing to circulate the ball a bit more. So rowles wouldve been part of forcing that stalemate
 
Mr Cleansheets said:
So looking forward to tomorrow's game, even though I won't be able to watch it live (unless a bit on my phone).

I'm expecting/hoping something like:

Ryan

Miller, Circati, Burgess, Rowles, Bos

Yazbek, Balard

Boyle, Metcalfe, Arzani

Duke

With Irankunda, Toure, O'Neill all to come on and hopefully both Devlin and Robertson to get minutes. Maybe Gauci also.

I know you read all my posts Popa, so over to you.
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Do you think we will be able to get away with 12 players on the field?
 
Mr Cleansheets said:
So looking forward to tomorrow's game, even though I won't be able to watch it live (unless a bit on my phone).

I'm expecting/hoping something like:

Ryan

Miller, Circati, Burgess, Rowles, Bos

Yazbek, Balard

Boyle, Metcalfe, Arzani

Duke

With Irankunda, Toure, O'Neill all to come on and hopefully both Devlin and Robertson to get minutes. Maybe Gauci also.

I know you read all my posts Popa, so over to you.
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Arzani shouldn't be anywhere near the starting team. I'm hoping Devlin & Robertson start to press their case
 
ossi said:
Many good and fantastic points but don't agree with "A 2038 bid is our only shot ever." There will be opportunities in the future

A World Cup in Australia (or even with New Zealand) as sole host with 48 nations is unlikely. I think a collaboration with Indonesia/ASEAN would increase the appeal. Maybe with a novelty Opening Game in Fiji/South Pacific.

I would have thought that South Korea's chance of getting the Men's Asian Cup were quite high. Also it have been a long 4 years since the Middle East would have last hosted and there would be pressure to play it in Middle East again.

We need to sort out tournament hosting in Victoria/ALF state and getting AFC/Middle East backing.

From next year onwards, there will be 4 international match days together in September/October - ideal for hosting mini tournament.

Is there a separate tournament hosting thread or should we start one?
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The answer to the South Korea question first - yes South Korea and us are probably the standouts with South Korea maybe slightly in front. The Middle East has dominated recent and there is a bit of an undercurrent that east Asia should host.

For the Asian Cup we could use

Perth WA Existing 60000
MRS Vic Existing 30050
Suncorp QLD Existing 53500
Townsville QLD Exisiting 25455
Parramatta NSW Existing 30000
Homebush NSW Existing 81500
Newcastle NSW Existing 33000
Canberra NSW Existing 25011
Hobart Tas In Progress 23000
Adelaide SA Temp stands 20000

No need AFL buy-in here as the tournament will be in their off season. Cricket may effect Perth but the WACA is still usable.

For the World Cup

The weaknesses of an Australia-Indonesia/ASEAN Joint World Cup Bid are many and varied.

Stadium deficiencies - Indonesia and many ASEAN countries lack sufficient FIFA-compliant stadiums (requiring at least 40,000 seats for group matches, more for knockout matches. Extensive new builds or renovations, which could cost billions and strain underdeveloped infrastructure. Indonesia had already found this when discussing a joint bid with Thailand and Vietnam.

Australia has many world-class venues but integrating them would require cross-border planning for a 48-team tournament (up from 32), demanding 12-16 stadiums across multiple sites would be problematic.

Conversely. NZ are already planning builds/upgrades for up to five stadiums across Auckland, Christchurch, Dunedin, Hamilton, Wellington which they will use either with us as part of OFC’s turn or as a joint bid with the third US bid in 2038. OFC and CONCACAF can bid for 2038. We need an exemption.

That US/NZ bid will have the same problem as the Australia-Indonesia/ASEAN bid with a vast geographical spread and travel burdens. For the Australia-Indonesia/ASEAN spanning Australia (Oceania) and ASEAN (Asia) creates vast distances—e.g., flights from Jakarta to Sydney take 6-7 hours, but extending to Hanoi or Manila adds complexity. This could lead to player fatigue, high carbon emissions (a growing FIFA scrutiny point), and logistical nightmares for fans, broadcasters, and officials. A 5-10 nation bid would be "unwieldy," complicating unified operations.

A US/NZ bid would have a greater geographical spread and travel burdens and at the same time wipe out the only meaningful chance of South Pacific World Cup. In a AUS/NZ bit the geographical spread and travel burdens are far less with the NZ cities similar distances as Sydney – Perth. NZ would probably be the 25% partner with us but only a 10% partner with the USA.

Hosting across 5-10 nations would be a high risk, high cost bid with uncertain returns when considering increased security, transport, and legacy projects.

Australia's has a much stronger economy (GDP per capita ~US$60,000 vs. Indonesia's ~US$4,700) and would most likely shoulder more costs which will deterring government buy-in. The 2023 cited budget constraints and competing priorities (e.g., 2032 Brisbane Olympics), refusing public funding without a clear co-host commitment. My proposal would see us use existing Australian/New Zealand infrastructure together with the Brisbane legacy and the new Hobart stadium while not committing a cent to further stadium work until after a bid is confirmed at the 2031 FIFA Congress.

A lack of regional unity and FIFA Backing: ASEAN talks had a 2019 proposal led by Thailand which faltered due to internal rivalries and reluctance, Indonesia prioritized its own ambitions and later backed Saudi Arabia.

Human Rights and Governance Concerns: Indonesia's history of stadium tragedies (e.g., 2022 Kanjuruhan disaster killing 135) and political instability (e.g., 2023 U-20 World Cup revocation over Israel ban) raised FIFA red flags on safety and inclusivity. Broader ASEAN issues like varying labour laws could invite scrutiny similar to Qatar 2022.

Previous multi-host bids (e.g., 2026 North America) succeeded with geographic proximity and aligned interests; here, cultural/language differences and 5- 10+ partners would breed disputes over match allocations, revenues, and legacies. FIFA favours simpler bids and would view such a large consortium as messy.

Australia and NZ have already recently shown how they can work together well, The lack of a need to build anything before a 2031 decision also means that there is no addition call on construction against the existing Macquarie Point and Brisbane Olympic building is complete. Of course planning can be conducted before the 2031 Congress where the decision will be made.
 
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