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‘Minister of Defence’ No More? Examining the Regression of Mackenzie Arnold

An analysis of veteran Matildas goalkeeper Mackenzie Arnold, who has over 50 caps for Australia, and her recent regression amid rising competition from Teagan Micah and Chloe Lincoln.
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Mackenzie Arnold has long been the Matildas’ first-choice goalkeeper, debuting in 2012 and earning 59 caps for Australia.
As a Matildas tragic, I remember that fateful Saturday of August 12th, 2023 - and I am sure that this is the case for many of you who may be reading this very article. Cortnee Vine stood resolute. A deep breath, she runs up and buried her shot into the back of the net, etching the Tillies into the history books for time immemorial as we booked our place in the Women's World Cup semi-finals for the first time ever (on home soil, no less). Australian had defeated France 7-6 in a breathtaking penalty shoot out in Brisbane. Of course, this moment - which has now been immortalised in a cast bronze bas-relief - meant so much more.

Other footballing codes, including the powerhouse that is the AFL, made way for the Matildas with the opening bounce the blockbuster game between Melbourne and Carlton postponed. The outrage was palpable when the match went all the way and the inevitable decision to turn the game off at the MCG was made. Significantly more relevant in the sense of this article, was that Mackenzie Arnold cemented her spot as a cult hero, affectionately dubbed the 'Minister of Defence' by the Matildas faithful. Arnold etched her name amongst the likes of fellow Australian goalkeepers in Mark Schwarzer and Andrew Redmayne who themselves engaged in World Cup penalty heroics - albeit during the qualification phase - for the Socceroos in the 2005 World Cup Qualifier against Uruguary, and more recently in 2022 qualification Peru respectively.

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Teenager Chloe Lincoln is looking to cement her spot in the Matildas squad.
Yet, as time has passed, Arnold seems to be regressing, despite inheriting the number one jersey from the now-retired Lydia Williams just under one and a half years ago at the time of writing.

Statistically speaking, when compared to her contemporaries in Chloe Lincoln and Teagan Micah, Arnold has conceded the most amount of goals per season in club football between seasons 2022-23 and 2023-24, illustrated in the graph below. In contrast, the number of goals conceded by Lincoln across the same period of time is considerably lower, and even more so for Micah. It is also worth bearing in mind that Micah has not had half as much game time as the other two Matildas keepers in terms of matches played. Season 2024 also holds an asterisk for Arnold as she has only played five matches following her transfer midway through the NWSL season to the Portland Thorns, to say the least.

matildas keeper goals conceded graph.png

Despite the asterisk and game time differences, it is clear from the data that Arnold is regressing and arguably performing worse in comparison to the rest of the Tillies goalkeeper union. In terms of the metric aforementioned, and the general consensus -at least on the Matildas board of this very forum- is that Teagan Micah should be the starting keeper going forwards. Although it's much more complicated than that. If you follow Supercars, in particular the Bathurst 1000, then you're well aware of the debate raging on about whether Ford or Holden is the better manufacturer with both schools of thought standing by their marque's storied history. Their motorsport pedigree and the number of times they've conquered Mount Panorama out of the sixty-seven runnings of the Great Race, hold them aloft. The same, perhaps, can be said with regards to the goalkeeping situation in the Australian women's national football team.

For one, each of the three shot-stoppers referred to previously in this article have had experience in major tournaments, along with their fair share of injuries. However, youth is also on the side of Chloe Lincoln. At just twenty years of age, she is the youngest out of the trio. Strikingly, it can be argued that Arnold is a force to be reckoned with during penalties, having saved almost every penalty kick she's faced throughout her career, living up to her moniker as a 'brick wall'. Lincoln, in spite of being the greenhorn and not being exposed to international football as much, can be said to have big game experience as well. She was the stopper that won the ASEAN Women's Championship with the under-23 Matildas earlier in the year, starting every game including the semi-final and grand final, bar two group games.

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Teagan Micah has long had to sit in the shadow of Lydia Williams and Mackenzie Arnold.
Hence, it is an opportune time to ask the question of whether Arnold is indeed past her prime, with some saying she's 'on the wrong side of thirty'. This leads to the idea about who we should be looking to start tending the goals going into a Women's Asian Cup campaign on home soil at the beginning of next year.

As far as I'm concerned, I agree with the vast majority of the populace that Arnold has peaked and is starting to approach a point where she is past her prime. I am however, not pledging allegiance to any particular member of the Matildas' goalkeeping union at this moment in time. All have their respective benefits and drawbacks that they bring to the table, and ultimately, it's safe to say that the question of how the hierarchy stacks up on the depth chart, will come down to who's getting the most game time at club level. Joe Montemurro could surprise us and decide to select uncapped players in Morgan Aquino, Jada Whyman or even Sally James, over the tried-and-tested when squad announcement rolls around come February next year, rendering this thought a little moot.

In the meantime, the debate of who is truly the number one for the Matildas will no doubt rage on for years to come, and will be reflected upon in retrospect for even longer.
About author
rebelliousfeminist974
A self-proclaimed Matildas tragic and expert on the Australian women's football team who also supports Wellington Phoenix in the A-League.

Comments

nice article and loved hearing about the background. do you have goals conceded per game for each of the players in your plot?
 
This article is well-written, RF.

It is also interesting to read 3 mooted possibilities as uncapped keepers.
 

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