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World cup 2026 Draw

Cunningstunt said:
If you want to criticise setup and tactics I agree with you.
But even under a different coach the same guys are getting picked because they are the best available. The only differences would be at the fringes, which does not move the needle much.
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That is what I'm talking about. I just cannot see that we are setting up with the squad to get out of the group. How can we 'do something special' if we can't get out of the group.
 
patjennings said:
That is what I'm talking about. I just cannot see that we are setting up with the squad to get out of the group. How can we 'do something special' if we can't get out of the group.
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To Popa something special means winning the thing. Because you need never go into an individual match planning to lose.
On talent we never get out of the group. This has been true of every world cup except 2006 where we were arguably ahead of Croatia and Japan at the time. Arnold got us through, but you run that same group back 10 times, we go through maybe 2/10? No one picked us and this is why he was named coach of the tournament.
So he gets us through by getting results where we are not favoured. The same way Arnold did. Or he doesn't and the group plays out as expected with the talented teams going through.
 
Cunningstunt said:
To Popa something special means winning the thing. Because you need never go into an individual match planning to lose.
On talent we never get out of the group. This has been true of every world cup except 2006 where we were arguably ahead of Croatia and Japan at the time. Arnold got us through, but you run that same group back 10 times, we go through maybe 2/10? No one picked us and this is why he was named coach of the tournament.
So he gets us through by getting results where we are not favoured. The same way Arnold did. Or he doesn't and the group plays out as expected with the talented teams going through.
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To win the thing you need to win the group - get the easy quadrant and get through the QF. Hope for a reasonable test there (like the Netherlands who beat a bunch of minnows and drew twice with Poland). That gets you to the semis. At this stage then you need to rely on a heap of other upsets for the others in the semis and beyond.

But the problem then lies in not even targeting specific games - having a middling squad that may win a game but likely will not get out of the group. If you talk a big game there needs to be a big plan. I just can't see it.
 
No one saw Arnold doing anything.
He wants to absorb pressure probably in a mid / low block. Knick a goal. Repeat.
There are countless examples of this. Particularly in tournament football.
It's not likely to work, there isn't a setup that is. Him saying he wants to do something special is the most mundane, standard answer anyone would ever give.
 
Intercontinental Playoff Simulations (finals only, given no Suriname and New Caledonia in games)

DR Congo v Jamaica


Iraq v Bolivia
 
By 9am Friday ADST our first opponent in the World Cup will be down to 2 options. Based on the odds, almost definitely Turkiye and likely Slovakia.

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verrelli said:
By 9am Friday ADST our first opponent in the World Cup will be down to 2 options. Based on the odds, almost definitely Turkiye and likely Slovakia.

View attachment 5986
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Speaking of that, I forgot ti share this in here

NicCarBel

Post in thread '2026 UEFA WC Qualification'

And the remaining 3 finals (plus the one from earlier):

Playoff Path A Simulation
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Italy


Playoff Path B Simulation
Ukraine v Poland


Playoff Path C Simulation
Kosovo v Turkey


Playoff Path D Simulation
Republic of Ireland v Denmark


As a reminder, this was using as close to the current squads as possible (some squads have been announced with more than 26, so in those cases I cut players with the least caps) - if there were any players not in game, they were replaced...
 
Just looking at ELO vs FIFA rankings discussion in the game thread for the this week's games.

I noted that the USA is highest ranked in FIFA and lowest in ELO. Then I asked IA to say what analysts that follow ELO rankings have to say about group D strengths and weaknesses that make the USA what they call a 'false favourite'.


Analysts who call the USA a "false favourite" often point to a specific tactical nightmare: the USMNT struggles most against teams that sit deep and counter-attack, which describes all three of their potential Group D opponents.

1. The "Low Block" Kryptonite
The USA’s greatest strength is their athleticism and pace in transition (Pulisic, Weah). However, in Group D, they won't get space to run.

The Mismatch: Paraguay and Australia are masters of the "low block." They are comfortable defending with 10 men behind the ball for 90 minutes.
The Weakness: The USA lacks a creative "lock-breaker" in midfield. When forced to play slow, possession-based football against a packed defence, the USMNT often becomes stagnant, recycling the ball sideways until they concede on a counter-attack.

2. Physicality and Set Pieces

The Mismatch: Australia is one of the most physically imposing teams in the tournament. They prioritize height and strength in the air.
The Weakness: The USA has a documented vulnerability in defensive set pieces and lacks height in central midfield. If the Socceroos can turn the game into a physical "scrap," the USA’s technical advantage is neutralized.

3. Tactical Discipline vs. Defensive Lapses

The Mismatch: Turkey (the likely Pot 4 team) combines elite individual technical skill (Arda Güler) with a highly disciplined tactical setup.
The Weakness: The USA's backline—specifically the central defence—is prone to concentration lapses. Against a clinical team like Turkey, a single mistake by a US defender playing out from the back is usually punished immediately.

4. The "No Ninth" Problem

The Strength: The USA has world-class wingers.
The Weakness: They lack a consistent, clinical No. 9 (striker) who can bully physical defenders like Paraguay’s Gustavo Gómez. Without a focal point to finish crosses, the USA's attacking pressure often results in "empty calories"—lots of possession but no goals.

Summary of Style Clashes

Opponent Their Style Why it Hurts the USA
Paraguay Aggressive "Catenaccio" Smothers the USA's creative wingers and baits them into cards.
Australia Direct & Physical Exploits the USA's weakness in the air and on set pieces.
Turkey Technical Counter-press Punishes the USA's tendency to turn the ball over in the middle third.
 
German press not fazed at all by Curaçao but I hope they can stand firm for as long as possible against Germany.
 
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