Any1 staying up for the draw? I’ll be in bed hoping for the best outcome for Socceroos and NZ.

NoMates said:

Any1 staying up for the draw? I’ll be in bed hoping for the best outcome for Socceroos and NZ.

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I’m trying to decide if I stay up - or get up - wife is at her dads tonight, so I’ll be on the lounge watching as much as keeps me awake tonight regardless - especially with F1 practice on tonight too

not sure you seen this folks from Miguel Delaney that FIFA wanted it in Las Vegas same as 1994 final draw before Trump intervened and recommended Washington DC.

How does the draw work if there are still 6 teams to qualify? We know 4 are from UEFA but the other two could be from anywhere?.

NoMates said:

How does the draw work if there are still 6 teams to qualify? We know 4 are from UEFA but the other two could be from anywhere?.

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The draw is designed to work so that these two last spots are not drawn with any possible confederation clash.
I think the way it works out, is that by the time Pot 4 comes around, there must be at least one group that has 2 from UEFA and 1 from Africa (as - using that setup - the AFC v CONCACAF/CONMEBOL match cannot be drawn with any other combination).

Will most likely be some sort of software running on screen when it comes to Pots 3 and 4 that will show what nations can go where

Brenton1986 said:

not sure you seen this folks from Miguel Delaney that FIFA wanted it in Las Vegas same as 1994 final draw before Trump intervened and recommended Washington DC.

MSN

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I saw the video today of Robin Williams drawing Pot 4 and just fucking around with Sepp Blatter

I'm thinking that likely our worst group would be Argentina, Norway and a strong European playoff team. It would likely remove any possible advantage of being in pot 2. Weakest maybe Canada/Mexico, Scotland and New Zealand.

Alex M said:

I'm thinking that likely our worst group would be Argentina, Norway and a strong European playoff team. It would likely remove any possible advantage of being in pot 2. Weakest maybe Canada/Mexico, Scotland and New Zealand.

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I'm doing one last simulation now to sort of show a colour coded version of what I explained above when it gets to Pot 3 and 4.

Progress:




Update after Pot 3:


As I mentioned earlier, there is one group (K) that has 2x UEFA and 1x CAF, so once I get my colour codes in below - it should show that essentially that is the only group that Iraq's Playoff fixture can fit into.

melbcityguy said:

The og wonderkid

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Oh right, I forgot him just like his career has been.

Mr Cleansheets said:

Jeez I'd love Scotland.

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It's be the ultimate showdown but I'd hate to lose it.

NicCarBel said:

I'm doing one last simulation now to sort of show a colour coded version of what I explained above when it gets to Pot 3 and 4.

Progress:

View attachment 4540


Update after Pot 3:
View attachment 4541

As I mentioned earlier, there is one group (K) that has 2x UEFA and 1x CAF, so once I get my colour codes in below - it should show that essentially that is the only group that Iraq's Playoff fixture can fit into.

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Ok so I've colour coded something now - using this specific draw simulation - to show how it would work - First thing I've done, is given every confederation in Pot 4 their own colour (with each FIFA Playoff given a separate colour as they are their own unique combination)


Secondly, below each group, I've added a little colour thing that shows - hypothetically - where each of the Pot 4 nations could be drawn in this particular simulation:



So essentially - what FIFA will have is either software, or whoever the FIFA Secretary guy is that normally does these draws - is something like this as the draw progresses, as there will be situations now when drawing Pot 4 that they'll have to skip over groups because they know that particular nations can only go in certain places. For example on the above - as mentioned earlier - Group K is the only group that the FIFA 2 playoff can be drawn into, so as soon as they are drawn, they will be placed into that Group.

In this scenario, there will probably be a situation - given that there are 3 groups that must have a UEFA nation, that after the first one is drawn (should that be Group A, B or C), the remaining 3 will be placed in Groups D, I and J when they are drawn, skipping over any otherwise eligible nations for UEFA.


EDIT: I'm editing in live typing I guess to show this since I can't really add a video - below is the order I've drawn the nations, and where I've had to place them + notes as applicable.

• New Zealand - Group A - no clashes, but this now constrains a few things in the rest of the draw:
  • As it's likely that a UEFA nation will be drawn earlier into the draw (A, B, C, E, H) before being forced into the 3x UEFA only positions remaining (D, I, J), Group L (and H, should UEFA be drawn earlier) will only have CONCACAF remaining that can go in, meaning both Curacao and Haiti must be placed in Groups H and L when drawn.
• UEFA D - Group B - This now consigns the above scenario as a thing
• Ghana - Group E - As the above scenario now limits where Jordan can go (they can only be placed in Group C), and Egypt is already in Group D
• Cape Verde - Group F - same as Ghana. This now also confirms FIFA 1 can only be placed into Group G
• Jordan - Group C - outlined earlier
• Haiti - Group L - Outlined earlier
• FIFA 1 - Group G
• FIFA 2 - Group K
  • This now leaves only the 3 remaining UEFA playoff nations, with 3 groups that do not have a UEFA nation, so will be drawn alphabetically
• UEFA B - Group D
• UEFA C - Group I
• UEFA A - Group J

Thus, here is my final draw simulation:

Moral of the story - from a socceroos point of view - we want to draw a UEFA team in either of the first 2 pots. People look at Norway and Scotland being potential Group of Death problems for us, but that is only true if we get drawn with UEFA in Pot 4 for a potential second UEFA nation, rather than Pot 1.

Sounds like from what I am reading, Argentina or Brazil is worst case scenario in pot 1 not only coz they're sp strong but because it massively increases the likelihood of getting a Euro team in pot 4 instead of a minnow.

verrelli said:

Sounds like from what I am reading, Argentina or Brazil is worst case scenario in pot 1 not only coz they're sp strong but because it massively increases the likelihood of getting a Euro team in pot 4 instead of a minnow.

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Yep - that's the way I'm feeling it too. Best case scenario for us would something along the lines of Netherlands or Belgium, or Canada (whilst yes that may mean UEFA Pot 4, it's more balanced out with Canada)

utter classical !

Don't think I'll need to lie down and have a big whiskey like after 2014 but there'll be a bombshell. World cup after all. It's honestly been 8 years because the last draw we hadn't qualified and it felt deflating seeing ourselves on a playoff card.