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Socceroos vs Canada/USA Oct 25

patjennings said:
No - he was just stupid. My favourite bit was a journo asking Popa about hosting a World Cup. That is the kind of game changer we need in Australia.
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Well infantino was there last night haha
 
When you look at some of the attempts by the Canadians stars it was really week. Scuffs will happen but an off night.
 
JS96 said:
When you look at some of the attempts by the Canadians stars it was really week. Scuffs will happen but an off night.
Click to expand...
Yeah i think we had 4 good chances they had 1 until the 89th minute where they had 3 in a row

Penalty shout in the first few minutes was interesting. The referee let everything go and allowed a lot of physicality so even if it was a pen normally, this ref had a particular style that was pretty permissive

Curious what our refs thought of rhe challenge @Muz @NicCarBel
 
grazorblade said:
Well infantino was there last night haha
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Unfortunately the likelihood of a 64 team World cup will cut us completely out. Our best and only chance is the 2038 World Cup. We are currently excluded but could seek an exemption if it was still a 48 team World Cup for a joint bid with NZ. They would need to supply at least 3 stadiums - they only have 1 at the moment to show it is at least a partial OFC bid.

That means we would need 13 - a tall task but not impossible. The problem being as it always is would be access.

A 2038 bid is our only shot ever.

To win would need a huge alignment of things to go right.

I've started thinking about this since hearing Popa's interview.

I think we need to appoint John Coates to a Football tsar role.
We need to host a successful 2026 AFC Womens World Cup and probably the AFC Congress at the same time.
During the AFC Congress we need to win the 2032 Mens Asian Cup bid. We are the favourites but only a 30% chance.

Then comes the tricky bits

A bid for the 2038 World Cup would require reliance on a number of things. We really need Spain and France to vote for us for their influence in other confederations. We need to use John Coates IOC/FIFA links. James Johnsons links to Infantino, even King Charles Commonwealth links

Why we could win

Aus/NZ’s Equity Case:
  • 2010 OFC Precedent: The 2010 World Cup, intended for OFC (when Australia was a member), went to South Africa (CAF). Aus/NZ’s “Oceania’s turn” narrative resonates with CAF (e.g., Senegal, Mali) and smaller CONCACAF nations (e.g., Jamaica), emphasizing fairness for underrepresented regions.
  • US Hosting Frequency: A third US hosting (1994, 2026, 2038) fuels perceptions of Northern bias, especially after 2030’s UEFA-led Spain/Portugal/Morocco bid. This sways CAF (e.g., Zambia) and CONMEBOL (e.g., Paraguay) toward Aus/NZ to balance global hosting.
  • 2030 Northern Bias: Morocco’s limited role in 2030 (10-20 of 104 matches) reinforces UEFA dominance, pushing Southern Hemisphere support for Aus/NZ among CAF and CONMEBOL’s smaller nations.
France and Spain’s UEFA Defection:
  • France (francophone ties) and Spain (2030 co-host, South American links) shift from US to Aus/NZ, adjusting UEFA’s split from 41-14 to 39-16. Their equity stance sways ~5 CAF votes (francophone/North African, e.g., Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia) and ~3 CONMEBOL votes (e.g., Bolivia), amplifying Aus/NZ’s fairness narrative.
James Johnson’s Influence:
  • As CSB Group CEO (Canada, appointed May 2025) and ex-Football Australia CEO (2020–2025), Johnson leverages Commonwealth ties to secure Canada’s vote and ~3 Caribbean CONCACAF votes (e.g., Barbados, Antigua). His FIFA connections (until 2018) and CONCACAF ties (via Montagliani) add ~2 CAF votes, shifting CONCACAF to 28-13 and CAF to 19-35.
John Coates as Football Tsar:
  • John Coates AC, former Australian Olympic Committee president (1990–2022) and IOC vice-president (2013–2017, 2020–2024), acts as a key “football tsar.” His government ties (securing Brisbane 2032 Olympics funding) and IOC network (e.g., connections with Thomas Bach and African/Asian delegates) facilitate FIFA lobbying. Coates sways ~4 CAF votes (e.g., Uganda, Kenya via Olympic ties) and ~2 CONCACAF votes (e.g., Caribbean IOC affiliates). His 2011 FIFA reform advocacy enhances Aus/NZ’s credibility, reinforcing the 2032 Olympics’ $8.9B infrastructure legacy.
King Charles III’s Role:
  • As monarch of Australia, New Zealand, and head of the Commonwealth (since 2022), King Charles III provides symbolic and diplomatic support for the Aus/NZ bid. His patronage of Commonwealth sports initiatives (e.g., Commonwealth Games) and royal tours (e.g., planned 2026 Australia visit) amplify the bid’s global profile. Charles’ influence strengthens Commonwealth unity, swaying ~2 additional CONCACAF votes (e.g., Bahamas, Belize, via royal and Commonwealth ties) and ~2 CAF votes (e.g., Botswana, Eswatini, via Commonwealth sports networks). His endorsement, alongside Coates’ IOC clout, enhances Aus/NZ’s prestige, reinforcing the 2032 Olympics as a soccer-ready platform and countering US’s revenue narrative with cultural diplomacy.
2031 AFC Asian Cup and 2032 Brisbane Olympics:
  • Asian Cup Australia’s bid (decision ~2026) builds on 2015/2023 success, securing AFC’s full 47 votes (e.g., India, China, Indonesia) and showcasing infrastructure readiness..
  • Brisbane Olympics (2032): $8.9B investment, including a 55K-seat Brisbane Stadium, provides 10-12 FIFA-ready venues, countering US’s 2026 stadium advantage. Coates’ and Charles’ involvement elevates global appeal, swaying Commonwealth CONCACAF (e.g., Jamaica) and CAF’s smaller nations.
Time Zones and Logistics:
  • US Strengths: Evening game slots (8-10 PM Nigeria/Europe, UTC-4), shorter travel (7-9 hours, €500-€1000), and $2B+ revenue potential secure UEFA (39 votes), most CONCACAF (28), and CONMEBOL (7).
  • Aus/NZ Advantage: Perth-NZ spread (UTC+8 to +13) offers 1-3 PM Nigeria slots and aligns with AFC (5:30 PM India, 8 PM China). Olympics upgrades mitigate travel concerns (20-24 hours, €1500-€2500), though US retains a logistical edge.
Confederation Dynamics:
  • AFC (47 votes): Fully supports Aus/NZ due to regional ties, Asian Cup infrastructure, and commercial potential (3B+ population).
  • OFC (11 votes): Backs Aus/NZ for NZ’s co-hosting and 2010 equity precedent.
  • CAF (54 votes): Splits 19-35; Nigeria and South Africa favor US for revenue/logistics, but smaller/francophone nations (e.g., Senegal, Zambia) support Aus/NZ for equity, boosted by France/Spain, Johnson, Coates, and Charles’ Commonwealth ties.
  • CONCACAF (41 votes): Splits 28-13; Canada and Caribbean nations (e.g., Jamaica, Barbados, Bahamas) shift to Aus/NZ via Johnson’s and Charles’ Commonwealth ties, Coates’ IOC networks, and Olympics prestige.
  • CONMEBOL (10 votes): Splits 7-3; Spain’s influence sways smaller nations (e.g., Paraguay), but Brazil/Argentina favor US due to 2026/2030 ties.
  • UEFA (55 votes): Splits 39-16; Germany/Italy prioritize US time zones/revenue, despite France/Spain’s equity push.
An Aus/NZ’s victory hinges on a powerful equity narrative (2010 precedent, US hosting frequency, 2030 Northern bias), amplified by Johnson’s trans-Pacific lobbying, Coates’ government/IOC influence, and King Charles III’s symbolic Commonwealth leadership. The 2031 Asian Cup and 2032 Olympics provide infrastructure and prestige, outweighing the US’s logistical advantages (evening slots, cheaper travel, revenue). France/Spain’s defection, combined with Johnson, Coates, and Charles’ networks, secures critical CAF and CONCACAF swings.

Caveats:
  • Infantino’s 2027 term end would hurt
  • Anr AFC exemption denial would blow us out of the water.
  • A 64 team world cup bid would blow us out of the water - it will come - just when.
Conclusion: Aus/NZ’s could win 125-93 for a 48-team 2038 World Cup leverages equity, strategic lobbying from Johnson and Coates, and King Charles III’s Commonwealth diplomacy, overcoming US’s logistical and revenue strengths with decisive CAF/CONCACAF support.

There are 211 congress members - 111 wins. Not everything will go right but this will be our only shot ever!!!
 
JS96 said:
When you look at some of the attempts by the Canadians stars it was really week. Scuffs will happen but an off night.
Click to expand...
We also had quite a few misses. Toure should have played with his left foot early. Circati's miss. Toure volley over the bar. Irankunda and Boyle not being found for easy attempts by poor crossing.
 
patjennings said:
We also had quite a few misses. Toure should have played with his left foot early. Circati's miss. Toure volley over the bar. Irankunda and Boyle not being found for easy attempts by poor crossing.
Click to expand...
yeah reckon we had the bigger chances

one thing deceptive about xg is it can create statistical illusions. It's pretty hard to tell the difference between a 0.01 or 0.06 xg chance and errors tend to be bad in the tails of the distribution

anyway the point is that big chances with a high xg can be a lot better than a bunch of weak chances that add up to the same xg

we probably had a lot more big chances until the 89th minute where they had a flurry in injury time
 
Just watched the penalty shout is slow motion and if anything the Canadian has stepped on Circati's left foot with his right making him slip. Ball had been kicked away.

Also, he lay down waiting to see what ref would do then rolled over to check and realised it wasn't on.
 
JS96 said:
Just watched the penalty shout is slow motion and if anything the Canadian has stepped on Circati's left foot with his right making him slip. Ball had been kicked away.

Also, he lay down waiting to see what ref would do then rolled over to check and realised it wasn't on.
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to be honest it looked like a bad decision live, then a great decision on slo mo replay....but then I lost faith in the ref with the way he managed the game
 
grazorblade said:
to be honest it looked like a bad decision live, then a great decision on slo mo replay....but then I lost faith in the ref with the way he managed the game
Click to expand...
I felt there ref was generally OK but a few times when we broke he blew despite a Canadian flop. He certainly needed to ring in the shoving early on.
 
JS96 said:
I felt there ref was generally OK but a few times when we broke he blew despite a Canadian flop. He certainly needed to ring in the shoving early on.
Click to expand...
I thought he let a lot go and I think we struggle with permissive refs (thinking the 1st game against nz and the 2nd game against equador)

it might be because we have gotten used to the ultra harsh reffing in asia
 
patjennings said:
No - he was just stupid. My favourite bit was a journo asking Popa about hosting a World Cup. That is the kind of game changer we need in Australia.
Click to expand...
I don't think it would be a game changer. It would be a short shot of adrenaline. There are systemic issues that need fixing first or at least parralel to. If we try we can't treat it as some miracle cure and ignore the real issues.
 
patjennings said:
Unfortunately the likelihood of a 64 team World cup will cut us completely out. Our best and only chance is the 2038 World Cup. We are currently excluded but could seek an exemption if it was still a 48 team World Cup for a joint bid with NZ. They would need to supply at least 3 stadiums - they only have 1 at the moment to show it is at least a partial OFC bid.

That means we would need 13 - a tall task but not impossible. The problem being as it always is would be access.

A 2038 bid is our only shot ever.

To win would need a huge alignment of things to go right.

I've started thinking about this since hearing Popa's interview.

I think we need to appoint John Coates to a Football tsar role.
We need to host a successful 2026 AFC Womens World Cup and probably the AFC Congress at the same time.
During the AFC Congress we need to win the 2032 Mens Asian Cup bid. We are the favourites but only a 30% chance.

Then comes the tricky bits

A bid for the 2038 World Cup would require reliance on a number of things. We really need Spain and France to vote for us for their influence in other confederations. We need to use John Coates IOC/FIFA links. James Johnsons links to Infantino, even King Charles Commonwealth links

Why we could win

Aus/NZ’s Equity Case:
  • 2010 OFC Precedent: The 2010 World Cup, intended for OFC (when Australia was a member), went to South Africa (CAF). Aus/NZ’s “Oceania’s turn” narrative resonates with CAF (e.g., Senegal, Mali) and smaller CONCACAF nations (e.g., Jamaica), emphasizing fairness for underrepresented regions.
  • US Hosting Frequency: A third US hosting (1994, 2026, 2038) fuels perceptions of Northern bias, especially after 2030’s UEFA-led Spain/Portugal/Morocco bid. This sways CAF (e.g., Zambia) and CONMEBOL (e.g., Paraguay) toward Aus/NZ to balance global hosting.
  • 2030 Northern Bias: Morocco’s limited role in 2030 (10-20 of 104 matches) reinforces UEFA dominance, pushing Southern Hemisphere support for Aus/NZ among CAF and CONMEBOL’s smaller nations.
France and Spain’s UEFA Defection:
  • France (francophone ties) and Spain (2030 co-host, South American links) shift from US to Aus/NZ, adjusting UEFA’s split from 41-14 to 39-16. Their equity stance sways ~5 CAF votes (francophone/North African, e.g., Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia) and ~3 CONMEBOL votes (e.g., Bolivia), amplifying Aus/NZ’s fairness narrative.
James Johnson’s Influence:
  • As CSB Group CEO (Canada, appointed May 2025) and ex-Football Australia CEO (2020–2025), Johnson leverages Commonwealth ties to secure Canada’s vote and ~3 Caribbean CONCACAF votes (e.g., Barbados, Antigua). His FIFA connections (until 2018) and CONCACAF ties (via Montagliani) add ~2 CAF votes, shifting CONCACAF to 28-13 and CAF to 19-35.
John Coates as Football Tsar:
  • John Coates AC, former Australian Olympic Committee president (1990–2022) and IOC vice-president (2013–2017, 2020–2024), acts as a key “football tsar.” His government ties (securing Brisbane 2032 Olympics funding) and IOC network (e.g., connections with Thomas Bach and African/Asian delegates) facilitate FIFA lobbying. Coates sways ~4 CAF votes (e.g., Uganda, Kenya via Olympic ties) and ~2 CONCACAF votes (e.g., Caribbean IOC affiliates). His 2011 FIFA reform advocacy enhances Aus/NZ’s credibility, reinforcing the 2032 Olympics’ $8.9B infrastructure legacy.
King Charles III’s Role:
  • As monarch of Australia, New Zealand, and head of the Commonwealth (since 2022), King Charles III provides symbolic and diplomatic support for the Aus/NZ bid. His patronage of Commonwealth sports initiatives (e.g., Commonwealth Games) and royal tours (e.g., planned 2026 Australia visit) amplify the bid’s global profile. Charles’ influence strengthens Commonwealth unity, swaying ~2 additional CONCACAF votes (e.g., Bahamas, Belize, via royal and Commonwealth ties) and ~2 CAF votes (e.g., Botswana, Eswatini, via Commonwealth sports networks). His endorsement, alongside Coates’ IOC clout, enhances Aus/NZ’s prestige, reinforcing the 2032 Olympics as a soccer-ready platform and countering US’s revenue narrative with cultural diplomacy.
2031 AFC Asian Cup and 2032 Brisbane Olympics:
  • Asian Cup Australia’s bid (decision ~2026) builds on 2015/2023 success, securing AFC’s full 47 votes (e.g., India, China, Indonesia) and showcasing infrastructure readiness..
  • Brisbane Olympics (2032): $8.9B investment, including a 55K-seat Brisbane Stadium, provides 10-12 FIFA-ready venues, countering US’s 2026 stadium advantage. Coates’ and Charles’ involvement elevates global appeal, swaying Commonwealth CONCACAF (e.g., Jamaica) and CAF’s smaller nations.
Time Zones and Logistics:
  • US Strengths: Evening game slots (8-10 PM Nigeria/Europe, UTC-4), shorter travel (7-9 hours, €500-€1000), and $2B+ revenue potential secure UEFA (39 votes), most CONCACAF (28), and CONMEBOL (7).
  • Aus/NZ Advantage: Perth-NZ spread (UTC+8 to +13) offers 1-3 PM Nigeria slots and aligns with AFC (5:30 PM India, 8 PM China). Olympics upgrades mitigate travel concerns (20-24 hours, €1500-€2500), though US retains a logistical edge.
Confederation Dynamics:
  • AFC (47 votes): Fully supports Aus/NZ due to regional ties, Asian Cup infrastructure, and commercial potential (3B+ population).
  • OFC (11 votes): Backs Aus/NZ for NZ’s co-hosting and 2010 equity precedent.
  • CAF (54 votes): Splits 19-35; Nigeria and South Africa favor US for revenue/logistics, but smaller/francophone nations (e.g., Senegal, Zambia) support Aus/NZ for equity, boosted by France/Spain, Johnson, Coates, and Charles’ Commonwealth ties.
  • CONCACAF (41 votes): Splits 28-13; Canada and Caribbean nations (e.g., Jamaica, Barbados, Bahamas) shift to Aus/NZ via Johnson’s and Charles’ Commonwealth ties, Coates’ IOC networks, and Olympics prestige.
  • CONMEBOL (10 votes): Splits 7-3; Spain’s influence sways smaller nations (e.g., Paraguay), but Brazil/Argentina favor US due to 2026/2030 ties.
  • UEFA (55 votes): Splits 39-16; Germany/Italy prioritize US time zones/revenue, despite France/Spain’s equity push.
An Aus/NZ’s victory hinges on a powerful equity narrative (2010 precedent, US hosting frequency, 2030 Northern bias), amplified by Johnson’s trans-Pacific lobbying, Coates’ government/IOC influence, and King Charles III’s symbolic Commonwealth leadership. The 2031 Asian Cup and 2032 Olympics provide infrastructure and prestige, outweighing the US’s logistical advantages (evening slots, cheaper travel, revenue). France/Spain’s defection, combined with Johnson, Coates, and Charles’ networks, secures critical CAF and CONCACAF swings.

Caveats:
  • Infantino’s 2027 term end would hurt
  • Anr AFC exemption denial would blow us out of the water.
  • A 64 team world cup bid would blow us out of the water - it will come - just when.
Conclusion: Aus/NZ’s could win 125-93 for a 48-team 2038 World Cup leverages equity, strategic lobbying from Johnson and Coates, and King Charles III’s Commonwealth diplomacy, overcoming US’s logistical and revenue strengths with decisive CAF/CONCACAF support.

There are 211 congress members - 111 wins. Not everything will go right but this will be our only shot ever!!!
Click to expand...
Indonesia might be a good cohost option.
 
Quicky said:
Indonesia might be a good cohost option.
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Thought about that - but they have some problems, a former NT manager said that they need systemic overhauls for any global events. They had already lost the U-20 World Cup hosting rights in 2023 over a dispute about Israeli participation.

That said we are using football as diplomatically with developing ties
 
Quicky said:
I don't think it would be a game changer. It would be a short shot of adrenaline. There are systemic issues that need fixing first or at least parralel to. If we try we can't treat it as some miracle cure and ignore the real issues.
Click to expand...
You don't think hosting a men's World Cup in Aus would be a game changer??

I mean if 06 was a huge moment for Australian football hosting a World Cup will absolutely blow that out of the water without a shadow of a doubt!

Definitely systemic issues at play that no matter what will always need to be addressed but there is no way hosting the biggest event in the world for the biggest sport in the world would be a short shot of adrenaline. The game in this country can't be stopped...it's just a matter of time.
 
I’ve only watched the live game and haven’t started stats compilation on the replay.

From the match stats compiled on TV Canada had 60 percent possession, and something like 12 shots at goal to Aus’s 5.

I think they said Izzo made 8 saves to Canada’s 0.

The Aus commentators and pundits often say Aus needs to keep the ball better, but they don’t account for Aus sitting off in team Squeezing, whilst the opposition often Squeezes intensively in a Full Press.

I’ll add more in the Socceroo match stats thread.

On another note, why were Canada such a proactively aggressive side? They seemed to initiate a lot of niggle and physical contact, but Aussies were punished equally by the ref for retaliation.

I can’t remember anything like this in Asian WCQers? Yet this was supposedly a friendly.

Do a lot of the Canadian team play for big UEFA clubs? And they expected to win easily?

Live, I thought Italiano struggled. For the Young Socceroos I thought he lacked the technical quality of most of his teammates and thought he had no hope of senior Socceroo football. I’ll probably see some better qualities that are more subtle in the replay.
 
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