question I'm obsessed with since it is in the background as a support plank in the structure of arguments against p&r in Australia. The argument goes like this
1. Broadbased entities get bigger crowds than those started by migrant communities
2. Changing traditional clubs started by non anglo migrant communities into broadbased clubs fails to draw a bigger crowd
3. From 1 and 2 the only solution is new franchises that start in the top league
4. Franchises cannot survive relegation
5. Franchises cannot thrive in a league where there are also clubs associated with a single ethnicity
6. From 3-5 you cannot have large crowds coexist with P&R since the majority of clubs in lower divisions have history associated with a non anglo migrant community
It's not the most moral argument, it wouldn't be accepted in any other industry on moral grounds even if the pragmatic case is correct. However, it has convinced people who reject xenophobic expedience on moral grounds. Joe Gorman appears to have walked away from the game after concluding that Australia's too racist for football to be its multicultural self. It also ignores some big tradeoffs - traditional clubs do more for youth development than franchises. I believe the academies only exist today because they are forced to have them and they only go down to u13s (someone correct me if I'm wrong). They also don't have a nyl unless forced I believe? Having said that some of these premises are shaky
1 appears true but flattens some nuance. Plenty of franchises have had small crowds then died, franchises have tended to have their crowds shrink over time and the occasional traditional club can get big crowds. Having said that, the clubs that have gotten the biggest crowd averages are definitely dominated by franchises.
2. Is clearly true. To quote Joe Gorman - no club has done more to appeal to a broad base than Sydney Hakoah and it didn't make any difference
3. This therefore follows, there clearly is a market for broad based franchises that have had no historical connection to grassroots. I think it makes sense to still invite franchises to go straight into the top division even after p&r is introduced as much as people hate it
4. Is shaky. Historically, we have only had 6 clubs attempt to join a lower division after getting kicked out and/or going bust in the top - Strikers, Canberra city, Northern Spirit, Woolongong Wolves, Gold Coast United, NQ Fury. Of those 6, only NQ fury has died, so superficially the survival rate of franchises joining lower leagues is higher than the top division and certainly higher than the survival rate of clubs that don't try. Having said that, in two cases (NWS Spirit and Gold Coast United) the change was so significant that you could reasonably consider them new franchises. Even if that is the case, they are still franchises that have survived in a lower division. Since franchises depend on top down investment more than traditional clubs, the survival rate is likely to be even higher if there is a path back to the top
5. Is also shaky and is probably the morally bleakest argument. Incredibly it has even been defended using racial hygiene metaphors "dirty water and clean water can't mix". Perth glory, Adelaide united evidently got big crowds while playing in the same league as traditional clubs in the late nsl era. Having said that, the modest evidential basis for it is that no Sydney or Melbourne franchise was successful in the long term until the a league era. Some of the Sydney/Melbourne franchises were associated with nrl/afl clubs, so they weren't really broadbase clubs as fans of other nrl/afl clubs might be dissuaded from joining. So really we are just comparing Northern Spirit - which declined dramatically after initially pulling large crowds - with Sydney FC, Melbourne Victory, Western Sydney Wanderers, Melbourne Heart, Macarthur and Western United. There are other plausible explanations for the differing outcomes of Spirit compared to SFC and Victory. Having less teams in the city probably boosted crowd averages. There was also the big boost that came from launching a league around the time we made the world cup for the first time in 32 years.
So accepting 6 means accepting that the stuff you miss out on by not having p&r is worth it for bigger crowds, but even believing there will be bigger crowds means accepting premises 4 and 5 which have shaky evidence and basically means giving up on the ethics of anglo Australia as well as believing the ends justify the means!