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Was curious about what the early careers looked like for the limited number of players we have produced that played at a high level (either big 5, or group stage champions league, minimum of 3 seasons with a minimum of 25 games in each season). This is the limited list I compiled and I was curious if I missed any players. A "year at the top" or a breakthrough year means at least 25 games at a decent level. I also count age as year a season ends minus the birth year. For instance, players born 2001 are u24 this year. Players like rogic only played 2 25+ game seasons where celtic made the champions league so didn't make the cut. Sterjovski also only managed 2 seasons that made the cut
It's a skinny list. It does look like if you don't break through at big 5 level at a young age, you ideally want to break through by u21-u23 at the latest. Though we do have a couple of late bloomers! That means players born 2002 or later and still playing in the a league have already missed the cut, along with players born 2001 or later getting their first season in europe.
Looking at a weaker cut - those players that made one 25+ game season at the top, if you have at least 1 25+game season by u24 in a decent league you have a 1 in 2 chance of playing at a higher level. Remarkably it makes no difference if you breakthrough by u24 or u21 etc. I suspect sustained success at the top is more likely if you break through earlier though. If you break through after u24, your odds of reaching a higher level plummet to 1 in 5, though as you can see we have had some late bloomers. About half of those who make it to the top only manage a good season or two.
To produce a golden generation where every one of our starting xi has sustained success at the top, you probably need about 44 players who have broken through by u24, preferably a bunch of them starting regularly at a younger age. Spread out over 8 birth years, that means we need to average 5.5 per year. Our best year in the a league era managed to have 4 players in one year and the average is 1.7 per year. 2000 and 2001 managed 3 a piece and we won't know what will happen after that, though it looks like those born 2003 will probably get over that 5.5 mark for the first time in a league history. Whether it is an outlier or the new normal remains to be seen.
| Player | League | Breakthrough age | Years at the top |
| Bresciano | Seri B | u21 | 9 |
| Emerton | Eredivisie | u22 | 9 |
| Viduka | PRVA HNL | u21 | 8 |
| Ryan | Jupiler | u22 | 3 |
| Neill | EPL | u24 | 8 |
| Cahill | Championship (div 1) | u23 | 7 |
| Chipperfield | Swiss Super League | u27 | 4 |
| Mooy | championship | u27 | 4 |
| Moore | Scottish Premier League | u20 | 4 |
| Schwarzer | Championship (div 1) | u26 | 15 |
| Bosnich | EPL | u22 | 5 |
| Lazaridis | EPL | u25 | 4 |
| Kewell | EPL | u20 | 9+ |
| Aloisi | Jupiler (Belgium pro League) | u19 | 5 |
| Grella | Seri A | u24 | 6 |
| Culina | Eredivisie | u23 | 4 |
| Leckie | Buli 2 | u22 | 3 |
| Those who nearly make the cut | |||
| Rogic | SPL | u24 | 2 |
| Mcdonald | SPL | u23 | 2 |
| Mile Jedinak | Super Lig (Turkey) | u26 | 2 |
| Mile Sterjovski | Ligue 1 (then called div 1) | u22 | 2 |
| Ned Zelic | Bundesliga | u28 | 2 |
It's a skinny list. It does look like if you don't break through at big 5 level at a young age, you ideally want to break through by u21-u23 at the latest. Though we do have a couple of late bloomers! That means players born 2002 or later and still playing in the a league have already missed the cut, along with players born 2001 or later getting their first season in europe.
Looking at a weaker cut - those players that made one 25+ game season at the top, if you have at least 1 25+game season by u24 in a decent league you have a 1 in 2 chance of playing at a higher level. Remarkably it makes no difference if you breakthrough by u24 or u21 etc. I suspect sustained success at the top is more likely if you break through earlier though. If you break through after u24, your odds of reaching a higher level plummet to 1 in 5, though as you can see we have had some late bloomers. About half of those who make it to the top only manage a good season or two.
To produce a golden generation where every one of our starting xi has sustained success at the top, you probably need about 44 players who have broken through by u24, preferably a bunch of them starting regularly at a younger age. Spread out over 8 birth years, that means we need to average 5.5 per year. Our best year in the a league era managed to have 4 players in one year and the average is 1.7 per year. 2000 and 2001 managed 3 a piece and we won't know what will happen after that, though it looks like those born 2003 will probably get over that 5.5 mark for the first time in a league history. Whether it is an outlier or the new normal remains to be seen.
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