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World Cup 2026 Australia thread

patjennings said:
I agree @Decentric but I'll fall into the trap as well. And @Roar92_ I still have us second - just a different winner.


Context first

US competive games recently

2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup Runners-up Lost 2–1 to Mexico in the final.
2024–25 Nations League 4th Place Lost 1–0 to Panama in the semi-final and 2–1 to Canada in the 3rd-place match.
2024 Copa América Group Stage Finished 3rd in Group C; failed to advance after a 1–0 loss to Uruguay.

Friendlies

Date Opponent Score Result Competition

31 Mar 2026 Portugal 0–2 L International Friendly
28 Mar 2026 Belgium 2–5 L International Friendly

All teams below heavily rotated and trying different tactics/combos after qualifying

18 Nov 2025 Uruguay 5–1 W International Friendly - Uruguay 17 man squad with quarter of a billion ero of talent not picked
15 Nov 2025 Paraguay 2–1 W International Friendly -
14 Oct 2025 Australia 2–1 W International Friendly - played at altitude after US were in camp there and Australia arrived late (deliberate ploy to mak it a tough test). Austalia dominated until they wilted late

USMNT upcoming friendlies

June 1: USA vs. Senegal
June 7: USA vs. Germany

For refereence ELO Rankings the better predictor

USA 41

Canada 25
Mexico 20
Panama 36
Uruguay 15
Portugal 5
Belgium 19
Paraguay 22
Australia 26
Senegal 17
Germany 11
Paraguay 22
Turkey 14

I agree not many goals in the group. But by the time they play Paraguay the US are likely not to have won a game in 2026.I also have the proviso that Popovic picks the right side and uses then properly.

MD1
US 0 Paraguay 0 - The US will drop points - Paraguay conceded 10 goals in 18 matches in qualifying - the best they can get is a draw for me.
Australia 0 Turkiye 1 - I suspect a close loss for us. We are a good defensive unit but Turkey are a quality side. However, they are notorious for starting tournaments slowly so a draw or a breakaway goal for a win is possible

MD2
US 1 Australia 3 - After not winning since 2025 and having to play Turkiye in the last match the US must win. They will attack, we will catch them a couple of times on the break - late goal for them and they will then get caught again.
Turkiye 1 Paraguay 0 - Turkey the better team - Paraguay still tight

MD3
Paraguay 0 Australia 1 - Set piece goal - Paraguay achilles heel is height - we have it
Turkiye 3 US 0 - US elimnated


Table Pts GD
Turkey 9 5
Australia 6 3
Paraguay 1 0
US 1 -5

This aligns with ELO rankings and looking at the latest results where Mexico drew both US opponents this window shows the 'golden generation' is actually a tin-plated generation with a feet of clay.

BTW - H2H is the first tie breaker
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I like this better lol.

But IMO the World Cup is a different kettle of fish. Teams will lift, and they’re at home. I could see US doing well. But would be happy to be wrong.
 
Roar92_ said:
I like this better lol.

But IMO the World Cup is a different kettle of fish. Teams will lift, and they’re at home. I could see US doing well. But would be happy to be wrong.
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Again - that's a trap. each of opponents will bring 5000+ load and boisterous fans from home - plus expats. Active us support will probably be around 600. High ticket prices and corporates will make for an best tepid US support. Then you have the fact that by the time they play Paraguay the crowd will probably be antsy because of no win this year.

They don't have a good recent record in competition. The pressure is on as hosts and also the USSF and the MLS want to launch a new age in the MLS. The hype is enormous. Less hype for the other hosts Canada and Mexico means less pressure and I also think they are better and smarter teams.

TBH the host bounce comes in true football nations like Europe, South America and parts of Asia. This will be more akin to South Africa and Qatar.
 
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patjennings said:
Again - that's a trap. each of opponents will bring 5000+ load and boisterous fans from home - plus expats. Active us support will probably be around 600. High ticket prices and corporates will make for an best tepid US support. Then you have the fact that by the time they play Paraguay the crowd will probably be antsy because of no win this year.

They don't have a good recent record in competition. The pressure is on as hosts and also the USSF and the MLS want to launch a new age in the MLS. The hype is enormous. Less hype for the other hosts Canada and Mexico means less pressure and I also think they are better and smarter teams.

TBH the host bounce comes in true football nations like Europe, South America and parts of Asia. This will be more akin to South Africa and Qatar.
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Pat I love your steadfast confidence that the USA are over-rated. I wish I shared your confidence but as hosts, with the home crowd and the pressure on the refs, I'm nervous.
 
Quicky said:
Pat I love your steadfast confidence that the USA are over-rated. I wish I shared your confidence but as hosts, with the home crowd and the pressure on the refs, I'm nervous.
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TBH the player that looks most in form is Weston McKennie. Assuming Tyler Adams is fit he is likely to be Captain.

FIFA has already said they will be tough on dissent (be careful Irankunda) but Richards and Pulisic are whingers that make Brattan and Jamieson look like choirboys. Then look at our game against them as we were dominating them - it was all shirt pulls and taking out support in back play. Since it was a friendly it was all play on. Will they get that leniency at a World Cup?
 
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rebelliousfeminist974 said:
Tony Popovic isn't going to park the bus for all the Socceroos matches at the World Cup and we'll have a full strength playing list come June with many players including Mo Toure and Jackson Irvine back at full fitness which should in theory mean that we get at least one win.
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I admire your confidence that Popovic won’t park the bus for all the games!
 
I had one side of our group winning first games 1:0 then 1:1 draws matchday 2 and then 1:0 wins for those having lost on matchday 1. Everyone on 4 points and dual GD.

If my reading is correct it'd then come down to cards.
 
JS96 said:
Wow what a massive test pre tournament. They're very good. We've had big opponents before like The Netherlands.
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Minimum of 5 games in a row against opponents i enjoy watching us against

We arent good enough for me to enjoy watching us against top 10 nations, so I much prefer these 11-40 ranked opponents
 
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