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Comparing relative levels of Aussies in Europe using ELO

B

Bunch_of_hacks

Youth Prospect
Joined
Jan 29, 2025
Replies
30
So on the old forum might remember I compared the ELO ranking of the club's for each aussie player in Europe. ELO is a points system that the chess players use to determine ranking and is a statitistical system that factors in a clubs entire result history, more weighting is given to recent games, less weighting is given to distant games.

So at time of writing this is how our players clubs compare..

Ryan 1677
Volpato 1628
Souttar 1621
Irvine, Metcalfe 1583
Burgess, Luongo 1582
Circati 1568
Mcgree, Glover 1530
Genreau 1489
D'Agostino, Stensness1487
Toure's, Izzo 1475
Bennie 1475
Kalik 1462
Mabil 1459
Bos 1458
Oneill 1453
Yengi, Farrell, Matthews, Waddington 1444
Hrustic 1438
Robertson 1434
Elder 1419
Niewenhoff, Devlin 1409
Boyle, Miller, Triantis, Iredale 1403
Balard 1370
Karacic 1358
Irankunda 1336
Stam 1308
Strain 1295
Nisbet 1290
Italian 1263
Degenek 1248


So picking an 11 from that based on highest ratings ..

Ryan
Circati Souttar Burgess
Metcalfe Luongo Irvine. Bos
Mcgree Volpato
D'Agostino
 
Bunch_of_hacks said:
So on the old forum might remember I compared the ELO ranking of the club's for each aussie player in Europe. ELO is a points system that the chess players use to determine ranking and is a statitistical system that factors in a clubs entire result history, more weighting is given to recent games, less weighting is given to distant games.

So at time of writing this is how our players clubs compare..

Ryan 1677
Volpato 1628
Souttar 1621
Irvine, Metcalfe 1583
Burgess, Luongo 1582
Circati 1568
Mcgree, Glover 1530
Genreau 1489
D'Agostino, Stensness1487
Toure's, Izzo 1475
Bennie 1475
Kalik 1462
Mabil 1459
Bos 1458
Oneill 1453
Yengi, Farrell, Matthews, Waddington 1444
Hrustic 1438
Robertson 1434
Elder 1419
Niewenhoff, Devlin 1409
Boyle, Miller, Triantis, Iredale 1403
Balard 1370
Karacic 1358
Irankunda 1336
Stam 1308
Strain 1295
Nisbet 1290
Italian 1263
Degenek 1248


So picking an 11 from that based on highest ratings ..

Ryan
Circati Souttar Burgess
Metcalfe Luongo Irvine. Bos
Mcgree Volpato
D'Agostino
Click to expand...
should be a penalty for game time mind you
Maybe something like first choice =100% of elo score, regular minutes = 90%, squadie = 80% or something
Surprised viking's score has really jumped recently!
 
grazorblade said:
should be a penalty for game time mind you
Maybe something like first choice =100% of elo score, regular minutes = 90%, squadie = 80% or something
Surprised viking's score has really jumped recently!
Click to expand...
The Norwegian league has ranked highly for a few seasons now. It's teams have been competitive in Europe for awhile. Norwegian football strongest it's been since the 90s. Viking are fourth best rating in Norway. The Danish league also ranking highly the last few yrs. Looking at these ratings Toure and Daggers should be getting more of a look in
 
Bunch_of_hacks said:
The Norwegian league has ranked highly for a few seasons now. It's teams have been competitive in Europe for awhile. Norwegian football strongest it's been since the 90s. Viking are fourth best rating in Norway. The Danish league also ranking highly the last few yrs. Looking at these ratings Toure and Daggers should be getting more of a look in
Click to expand...
interesting when I've watch the danish league I've felt it was a step up from the a league but haven't felt that watching viking, at least not as much
 
Excellent thread, BOH.

Will revisit it after compiling all Socceroo stats for the last 2 WCQs.

Thanks for doing the work.
 
In all seriousness, I don't think this ranking system works at all.

Just to make sure I'm understanding it correctly ... you're ranking players on the basis of the team they play for and how that team is ranked in Europe?

Messi is currently playing for Miami - he wouldn't get near Argentina selection if the ELO system was used. Pele and Beckenbauer once played for NY Cosmos.
 
Mr Cleansheets said:
In all seriousness, I don't think this ranking system works at all.

Just to make sure I'm understanding it correctly ... you're ranking players on the basis of the team they play for and how that team is ranked in Europe?

Messi is currently playing for Miami - he wouldn't get near Argentina selection if the ELO system was used. Pele and Beckenbauer once played for NY Cosmos.
Click to expand...
It works on a line of best fit. Does this mean that it works for every player? No. You mention Messi & Beckenbauer but they are way, way , way above average, hence the line of best fit would not work. When Ronaldo played at the MCG, Melbourne City had Warren Joyce as coach who insisted in forwards joining the defensive press. Ronaldo would never get a game under WJ's coaching. Zlatan did not work out under Guardiola either; does this make Zlatan a crap footballer?
So for our purposes this works as most of the Roos' players are nowhere near Messi, Ronaldo or Zlatan levels.
 
But there are massive anomalies in this system.

You're seriously suggesting Bennie, Kalik, D'Agostino and Mabil are better than Triantis, Balard, Irankunda and Nisbet?
 
It's just an extra tool for comparing different leagues. It's useful when used in context with other information and considerations.

It's like any modelling of the real world. You can't capture all of the relevant information and create a perfect model. There will always be the exceptions you point out because if this. But it will still provide a reasonable indication of the strength of the clubs, as long as that information is paired with additional context.
 
Update...

Arena (Roma) 1767
Volpato (Sassuolo) 1629
Ryan (Levante) 1616
Bos (Feyenoord) 1601
Stensness, Daggers 1594
McGree, Silvera (Boro) 1589
Circati (Parma) 1583
Luongo (Millwall) 1577
Irvine, Metcalfe (St Pauli) 1562
Toure, Norwich 1547
Elder, Derby 1534
Mabil (Castellon) 1525
Irankunda (Watford) 1512
Arzani (Ferencvaros) 1511
Souttar (Leicester) 1505
Burgess (Swansea) 1502
Bennie, Adamson (QPR) 1495
Miller (Blackburn) 1472
Izzo (Randers) 1466
Devlin, N'Hoff, (Hearts) 1458
Waddington, Segecic, Matthews (Portsmouth) 1448
Kalik, Karacic (Hadjuk)1427
Boyle, Suto, Iredale (Hibs) 1410
Stam (M'well) 1399
Tilio (Rapid Wien) 1391
D Juric (Plock) 1376
Hrustic (Heracles) 1328
Balard (Breda) 1317
Strain, Sapsford (Dundee) 1305
Italiano (GAK) 1295
T Juric (mostar) 1283
Bacchus (St mirren) 1261
Yengi, Milanovic (Aberdeen) 1259
T. Yengi, mcGowan (Livingston)
 
Everytime I do this i realise that being being at a big club in a 2nd tier league is a higher level than playing at a bottom of the table italian, german or Spanish team. Case in point Bos vs Metcalfe/Irvine.

Also playing at a club thats top end of championship (mcgree, Silvera, Luongo) is a higher level than bottom of the table spain, germany or Italy.
 
Bunch_of_hacks said:
Everytime I do this i realise that being being at a big club in a 2nd tier league is a higher level than playing at a bottom of the table italian, german or Spanish team. Case in point Bos vs Metcalfe/Irvine.

Also playing at a club thats top end of championship (mcgree, Silvera, Luongo) is a higher level than bottom of the table spain, germany or Italy.
Click to expand...
kuols club is surprisingly high ranked
 
Bunch_of_hacks said:
Everytime I do this i realise that being being at a big club in a 2nd tier league is a higher level than playing at a bottom of the table italian, german or Spanish team. Case in point Bos vs Metcalfe/Irvine.

Also playing at a club thats top end of championship (mcgree, Silvera, Luongo) is a higher level than bottom of the table spain, germany or Italy.
Click to expand...
Yeah big clubs or big leagues is what we should be aiming for when guys go OS. Bos at Feyenoord compared to Balard at NAC. It is the same league but a big difference in the quality needed to make it at Feyenoord.
 
Bunch_of_hacks said:
Good point, forgot about Kuol.

Sparta Prague (big fish in small pond) traditionally have a strong ranking.

Wow, just checked it... 1665!!

Puts him 2nd highest after Arena , even im surprised by that!
Click to expand...
Hope you are safe, mate, if you still live in the UAE.
 
Cunningstunt said:
Yeah big clubs or big leagues is what we should be aiming for when guys go OS. Bos at Feyenoord compared to Balard at NAC. It is the same league but a big difference in the quality needed to make it at Feyenoord.
Click to expand...

Depends, Balard battling at NAC Breda prepares him better than Okon at Sydney. while Bos - while a defender is in reality is an attcking weapon that can get confidence playing in a big club.
 
Bunch_of_hacks said:
So on the old forum might remember I compared the ELO ranking of the club's for each aussie player in Europe. ELO is a points system that the chess players use to determine ranking and is a statitistical system that factors in a clubs entire result history, more weighting is given to recent games, less weighting is given to distant games.

So at time of writing this is how our players clubs compare..

Ryan 1677
Volpato 1628
Souttar 1621
Irvine, Metcalfe 1583
Burgess, Luongo 1582
Circati 1568
Mcgree, Glover 1530
Genreau 1489
D'Agostino, Stensness1487
Toure's, Izzo 1475
Bennie 1475
Kalik 1462
Mabil 1459
Bos 1458
Oneill 1453
Yengi, Farrell, Matthews, Waddington 1444
Hrustic 1438
Robertson 1434
Elder 1419
Niewenhoff, Devlin 1409
Boyle, Miller, Triantis, Iredale 1403
Balard 1370
Karacic 1358
Irankunda 1336
Stam 1308
Strain 1295
Nisbet 1290
Italian 1263
Degenek 1248


So picking an 11 from that based on highest ratings ..

Ryan
Circati Souttar Burgess
Metcalfe Luongo Irvine. Bos
Mcgree Volpato
D'Agostino
Click to expand...
Luongo is injured and D’Agostino plays for Brisbane Roar……..
 
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