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World news and politics.

If I was employed by the Australian Government and tasked with finding a dream group of countries for migrants Id be looking at those where the people are 'football mad'...

As we're always reading on the A-League board football in Australia is in dire need of 'bums on seats l' and 'eyes on screens'....

So that’s 9/10 of the world then....😋
 
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I have noticed a lot of young South Americans in living SE Qld in recent years. Particularly on the Gold Coast, where you'll find a lot of them working in hospitality.

Maybe they're here as backpackers rather than actual economic migrants but they do come across as a very vibrant 'can do' kind of peoples...

Definitely giving the notion that they would 'fit in with' the Aussie culture!!

The girls?

Well....🥰
 
Correct. Now under a shark government you're going to get them here how?

Assuming of course they want to come.
I'm getting really fed up of your snarky comments.

The two pressing areas atm is Ukraine and closer to home Myanmar (Burma).

They're probably the two I'd be focusing on.
 
I'm getting really fed up of your snarky comments.

The two pressing areas atm is Ukraine and closer to home Myanmar (Burma).

They're probably the two I'd be focusing on.

I'm asking you a serious question. How are you going to attract 100s of thousands of those people here.

And by the way. You're assuming they're going to 'assimilate' if you can get them here. Any reason you're so confident about that?

As for Burmese people there's already plenty of Rohingyas here. Even in my town we have heaps.
 
I'm asking you a serious question. How are you going to attract 100s of thousands of those people here.

And by the way. You're assuming they're going to 'assimilate' if you can get them here. Any reason you're so confident about that?

As for Burmese people there's already plenty of Rohingyas here. Even in my town we have heaps.
100s of thousands is way too many.

So what's your solution then since you want to argue with me on every point and won't agree with anything I've put forward?

As for my Burma suggestion, there are plenty more ethnic groups from that country seeking asylum not just the Rohingyas.
 
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I understand urbanisation but this is different. Urban cities will shrink too.

Like I said in south Korea at their current birth rates, in 4 generations 100 people will become 13.

Thats unrecoverable. (And it won't be just South Korea.)

Can I suggest you watch this little video.

It's been posted here before.



The irony of all this is, rather than making political mileage out of wanting to reduce immigration, countries will be competing and begging for immigrants to come in the next few decades.

Please allow me to retort with another video :)


This video demonstrates some of the adaptations being done in Japan. I also did a quick search on Korean pension funds and they are changing as well. Australia with the superannuation guarantee can ameliorate the effects, the increase in retirement age, etc. It's not working as originally envisaged and needs fixing but that is two electoral cycles away.

Having lived in Japan, most Japanese don't mind Filipinos, they have particular contempt for Brazilian-Japanese as they find it hard to adapt.
 
My view is realistic. Given that economies are based on perpetual growth there's massive challenges coming.

The economy will have to change but achieving that is going to be one of the greatest challenges in human history.

If you don't have a tax base to pay for old people or infrastructure, if you have 10 open positions but only 6 applicants then there's going to be holes all over the place that won't be filled and there's going to be huge problems.

I'm not sure what they're going to do. One answer would be to massively increase taxes on the ultra wealthy. Say 99 cents in the dollar on accumulated wealth after, pick a number, a billion dollars but even that won't help if you have money to pay for stuff but not enough people to do the stuff.

Maybe robotics will help.

I don't know what the answer is. The world's population will peak at 11 to 12 billion and then plummet.

People aren't having kids. That's not surprising. Who knew if the government let housing costs get out of control and let the cost of living skyrocket young people would decide to not have children.

To some degree this massive funneling of wealth upwards and the hollowing out of the middle class has exacerbated this problem. Though even fixing that won't stop populations from declining.

For the first time in human history people are, on a large scale, opting out of having children.
Growth per se is a dimensionless ratio and therefore misses a lot. Also there are numerous critics of using GDP as it is currently configured. For example, I enjoy reading and participating in this forum - I learn lots of things, that is free education which is a service. I am not paying anything extra for the use of my utilities so it does not figure in the GDP. However, if I had to pay then it would form part of the GDP.

Economies should not be static and change all the time. The test for societies is their adaptability. Australians have become increasingly static where changes are to be avoided. Thus our politics are all small targets with timid leaders otherwise there will always be sections of the electorate that will scream. Japanese society is generally conservative but can pivot quickly. When I lived in Japan, I never saw gay couples in the major shopping centres or going about their business (bearing in mind that Japanese don't usually show affection the way westerners do) but in 2017 they could be found in the major shopping centres and indeed everywhere. So I asked and basically the response was that people realised that they didn't give a toss and they came out of the closet. So I can also see that people will pivot.

Technology will help, working until you are older will help (depending on the type of work) but the biggest driver will be taxation.
 
Please allow me to retort with another video :)


This video demonstrates some of the adaptations being done in Japan. I also did a quick search on Korean pension funds and they are changing as well. Australia with the superannuation guarantee can ameliorate the effects, the increase in retirement age, etc. It's not working as originally envisaged and needs fixing but that is two electoral cycles away.

Having lived in Japan, most Japanese don't mind Filipinos, they have particular contempt for Brazilian-Japanese as they find it hard to adapt.


Sure but there's 2 things you're missing. Having all the money in the world won't mean anything if you don't have people to do the work.

Japan loses 1 million people every 2 years. It's worse in south Korea and Taiwan.

Immigration will help, to a point, but immigration will eventually dwindle and stop when all countries drop below fertility replacement rates.

In the interim there's going to be hella competition to get immigrants to come to, insert country here. Governments might encourage immigrants with payments, incentives and perhaps less taxes but that's counterproductive too. Less taxes equals less revenue which has it's own problems.
 
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Growth per se is a dimensionless ratio and therefore misses a lot. Also there are numerous critics of using GDP as it is currently configured. For example, I enjoy reading and participating in this forum - I learn lots of things, that is free education which is a service. I am not paying anything extra for the use of my utilities so it does not figure in the GDP. However, if I had to pay then it would form part of the GDP.

Economies should not be static and change all the time. The test for societies is their adaptability. Australians have become increasingly static where changes are to be avoided. Thus our politics are all small targets with timid leaders otherwise there will always be sections of the electorate that will scream. Japanese society is generally conservative but can pivot quickly. When I lived in Japan, I never saw gay couples in the major shopping centres or going about their business (bearing in mind that Japanese don't usually show affection the way westerners do) but in 2017 they could be found in the major shopping centres and indeed everywhere. So I asked and basically the response was that people realised that they didn't give a toss and they came out of the closet. So I can also see that people will pivot.

Technology will help, working until you are older will help (depending on the type of work) but the biggest driver will be taxation.

People will adapt yes but it doesn't solve the problem if you have X jobs to fill and only Y people to do the work. (Where Y < X)
 
Japan....

Ageing, anxious Japan makes immigrants the new enemy
A small community of Kurds is the focus of right-wing fears,

Richard Lloyd Parry reports in Kawaguchi


In a world charged with racial resentment and ethnic tension, the town of Kawaguchi does not feel like a community on the edge. It looks like hundreds of other satellite towns an hour from Tokyo — busy, prosperous, uneventful and extremely safe.

Commuters come and go in the railway station, which is surrounded by the usual neighbourhood of bars, cafés, department stores and love hotels — only an exceptionally alert observer would detect a higher than average number of kebab restaurants. But Kawaguchi is at the centre of a bitter and occasionally violent argument about a subject that until a few months ago was scarcely discussed in Japan: immigration, and the place of foreigners in a society where they were once almost invisible.

All of last week, vans with mounted loudspeakers stopped in front of Kawaguchi railway station blaring out speeches by political candidates competing in two separate elections. Rather than the surging cost of living, or the threat from an increasingly aggressive China, they are dominated by what is referred to as “the foreigner problem”.

“Japan belongs to the Japanese people,” said Keigo Furukawa of the right-wing Nihon Yamato Party, who stood in yesterday’s election for mayor of Kawaguchi, before next Sunday’s national parliamentary election. “We don’t need illegal immigrants, fake refugees, or foreigners who try to destroy Japanese culture and traditions.”

The candidate of Nihonto (Japan Party), Toshikazu Nishiuchi, insists the streets of Kawaguchi are no longer safe.

“Immigration is what people here are most worried about,” he said. “There are problems with rubbish, traffic accidents and crimes, including sexual crimes.

These people do not follow the rules.”

Who are these people? Statistics show that 48,000 of Kawaguchi’s 607,000 people are foreigners — 8 per cent of the total and a good deal higher than the national figure of 3 per cent.

More than half of foreign residents in Kawaguchi are Chinese, followed by Vietnamese and Filipinos. But public attention is entirely focused on a much smaller and more obscure group — Kurds from eastern Turkey.

Almost all of Japan’s Kurds live in Kawaguchi and the neighbouring town of Warabi, a total of just 2,000 people or so. They began arriving in the 1990s at a time when armed conflict between the Turkish government and the proindependence Kurdistan Workers’ Party was at its peak. For years, they lived quietly but in the past three years they have become objects of suspicion, dislike and outright hatred.

The messages of the hard-right politicians are mild compared with the worst of the hate speech. Tatsuhiro Nukui, head of a community organisation that provides Japanese classes to Kurdish children, has received hundreds of phone calls, letters and emails, many with messages of violence. “We’ll kill you all and feed you to the pigs,” read one anonymous message. “Massacre all Kurds!” Police are investigating the case of a Japanese man accused of hitting a Kurdish primary school boy who was playing in a park last July. Confronted by his father, who filmed the encounter, he shouted: “If it wasn’t against the law, I’d kill you.”

Anonymous social media users post comments about “Warabi-stan” and videos of Kurdish people going about their daily lives, including a four-yearold girl accused of “shoplifting” in a supermarket. “People are now afraid of being recorded,” said Vakkas Colak, a university lecturer who runs the Japan Kurdish Cultural Association.

The hate speech surged after an incident in 2023 when a knife fight took place in Kawaguchi between two groups of Kurdish youths. In separate cases, two Kurdish men have been accused of rape. But there is no reason to believe that Kurds are driving any kind of crime wave. The total number of crimes committed in Kawaguchi city in 2024 was less than a third that in 2005.

But the number of foreigners has increased from 15,000 to 48,000. The Kurdish population in Kawaguchi has gone from 190 to 1,500.

When asked, the complaints most often cited by local Japanese are trivial.

Kurds are accused of “being noisy”.

They are reproached for failing to follow Japan’s complicated rules about how to put out for collection different kinds of household rubbish.

Asked what troublesome behaviour by foreigners he has encountered in his own life, Nishiuchi, the candidate for mayor, hesitates before remembering an occasion when he saw a man driving his car erratically. “From his appearance I knew he was a Muslim,” he said.

When the Japanese choose MPs for the lower house next Sunday, the ultraright may find itself outflanked by the prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Takaichi avoids the crude racism of the small nationalist parties but has achieved high levels of popularity by promising “zero illegal immigrants”.

None of this will help with one of Japan’s chronic problems: the shrinking workforce caused by the ever-falling birth rate. The arbitrariness of choosing Kurds as a target and the triviality of many of the complaints against them suggests that ill-feeling towards foreigners is a proxy for deeper and more complex insecurities about a future of economic and military insecurity.

“Foreigners are not the problem in Japan,” Colak said. “The problem is the ageing society, and stagnation in the economy for 30 years, and a politics that cannot give anything to the people.

To escape from these economic [and] political issues they try to create a problem that doesn’t exist.”
 
100s of thousands is way too many.

So what's your solution then since you want to argue with me on every point and won't agree with anything I've put forward?

As for my Burma suggestion, there are plenty more ethnic groups from that country seeking asylum not just the Rohingyas.

Pre covid immigration ran at about 140 000 a year. That's the bare minimum to keep the economy ticking over. So over 5 years that's 700 thousand people. So I ask you again, where are you going to get all these people from? And that's 5 years. Project that to 10 and you have 1.4 million.

No I don't have a solution. I'm not so simple minded to say stupid shit like, 'let's be choosy', when there aren't any real alternatives. Nor do I have the solution to a rapidly aging workforce, a shrinking tax base, decreased fertility and an economy based on perpetual (nee Ponzi scheme) growth.

These are massive challenges as I've already said that are multi-faceted and extremely complex.

However if I were to have a crack at it I would think the number one reason for a negative fertility rate would be the cost of housing and living. People won't elect to have children if they can't afford a house and can't afford to raise those children. (Or will only have one child.)

So that means a massive, almost post WW2 level investment in housing. Where's the money going to come from you'd ask me next. Well champ you tell me? I'd tax billionaires, increase royalties on resources and raise taxes across the board, remove negative gearing for housing (phase it out), ban or severely restrict investment on residential properties, and get rid of the capital gains discount (phased out over time).

You know, engage in a fair bit of wealth redistribution. (All of which I've said before if you'd pay attention.)

Sort out affordable housing as a very first step and then go from there.

I know you're going to scream SOCIALISM at me and that's fine but unless you have a better solution then keep your insults to yourself and put forward your solutions.

I can wait.




"The ignorant is full of self confidence, the intelligent full of doubt." Someone.
 
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100s of thousands is way too many.

So what's your solution then since you want to argue with me on every point and won't agree with anything I've put forward?

As for my Burma suggestion, there are plenty more ethnic groups from that country seeking asylum not just the Rohingyas.

I'm interested to know why you think Burmese people are OK but Indians aren't.
 
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