Socceroos vs USA 2026 World Cup match thread 🇦🇺 🇺🇸

[JS96]

I think of those that finish 3rd, 3 points and a GD of -1 will essentially be a guarantee to get through - again this has been based off my various sims that have seen every nation that meets these criteria advance to the Round of 32.

But you’re right, having 4th off the table for us will be a bit of a lifesaver. I think a draw against USA, and a Turkey win over Paraguay does that from the maths. Obviously, a win over USA would as well

I'm normally way on top of this but 48 isn't 24 like the Asian cup so there is just so much to sift through. I think winning the group offers a potentially better path and I'll take a 2am Thursday kick off hit. I think 2md is Saturday 8pm for me but beggars cent be choosers.

Keep getting Argentina otherwise if we come 2nd.

 

[SocceroosFan]

Having a crack at Trump is what the whole world does, including Republicans in Congress.

Attacking him as a person is not remotely left. You may as well call a tomato or a cumquat lefty.

So please leave it out on this thread.

Your comment makes no sense, but we'll leave it there. Maybe the original poster should've thought twice before posting?

 

[FeedTheBrox]

I'm normally way on top of this but 48 isn't 24 like the Asian cup so there is just so much to sift through. I think winning the group offers a potentially better path and I'll take a 2am Thursday kick off hit. I think 2md is Saturday 8pm for me but beggars cent be choosers.

We pretty much know the scenario if we finish second. I'm not considering 3rd as an option at this stage (although it'll come back into calculations if we lose and either Turkey or Paraguay win).

Anyway, here is the list of potential Round of 32 match ups if if we win the group

• The winner of Group D will face the third-place finisher from either Group B, E, F, I, or J.

Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, and Bosnia and Herzegovina -> all are beatable.
Group E: Likely 3rd place Ecuador -> beatable.
Group F: Likely Netherlands, Sweden or Japan -> extremely tough and need to avoid at all costs.
Group I: Likely Senegal -> beatable.
Group J: Likely Jordan or Algeria -> beatable.

As long as we avoid the group F third place, we will be fine.

 

[Robbos]

I like Devlin but I just don't see what he brings to the table vs USA then what we had vs Turkey.

See this is why you are PM'd, you bag out the Socceroos all the time & crowds the Socceroos get & everyone is thinks you are a Kiwi, then you start talking 'us' & 'we' when talking about Socceroos.

I love it but others get confused, I'm confused too though.

 

[rebelliousfeminist974]

We pretty much know the scenario if we finish second. I'm not considering 3rd as an option at this stage (although it'll come back into calculations if we lose and either Turkey or Paraguay win).

Anyway, here is the list of potential Round of 32 match ups if if we win the group

• The winner of Group D will face the third-place finisher from either Group B, E, F, I, or J.

Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, and Bosnia and Herzegovina -> all are beatable.
Group E: Likely 3rd place Ecuador -> beatable.
Group F: Likely Netherlands, Sweden or Japan -> extremely tough and need to avoid at all costs.
Group I: Likely Senegal -> beatable.
Group J: Likely Jordan or Algeria -> beatable.

As long as we avoid the group F third place, we will be fine.

Agree that we need to avoid the third placed team from group F especially since we could face either the Netherlands or Sweden assuming Japan manage to top the group but ultimately the permutations will depend on which eight best third place sides end up making it to the knockout stage.

 

[Toebash]

Just having a think, if Paraguay beat Turkiye, aren't we essentially guaranteed third? Rankings are based on head to head, so if Turkiye are 3 points behind us going into the last matchday it's impossible to leapfrog us no matter what happens.

For that reason, I'm probably going for a Paraguay win against Turkiye.

 

[NicCarBel]

I'm normally way on top of this but 48 isn't 24 like the Asian cup so there is just so much to sift through. I think winning the group offers a potentially better path and I'll take a 2am Thursday kick off hit. I think 2md is Saturday 8pm for me but beggars cent be choosers.

Keep getting Argentina otherwise if we come 2nd.

We pretty much know the scenario if we finish second. I'm not considering 3rd as an option at this stage (although it'll come back into calculations if we lose and either Turkey or Paraguay win).

Anyway, here is the list of potential Round of 32 match ups if if we win the group

• The winner of Group D will face the third-place finisher from either Group B, E, F, I, or J.

Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, and Bosnia and Herzegovina -> all are beatable.
Group E: Likely 3rd place Ecuador -> beatable.
Group F: Likely Netherlands, Sweden or Japan -> extremely tough and need to avoid at all costs.
Group I: Likely Senegal -> beatable.
Group J: Likely Jordan or Algeria -> beatable.

As long as we avoid the group F third place, we will be fine.

Ok - so, using the current standings (and assuming two things - that Colombia defeats Uzbekistan, and the Ghana v Panama game ends as is), this is the current knockout bracket (the matches next to eachother play eachother in the next round)

• Germany v Brazil
• Norway v Netherlands
• South Korea v Canada
• Sweden v Morocco
• DR Congo v Panama
• Uruguay v Austria
• United States v Qatar
• New Zealand v Czechia
• Scotland v Japan
• Ivory Coast v France
• Mexico v Spain
• England v Portugal
• Argentina v Saudi Arabia
• Australia v Iran
• Switzerland v Belgium
• Colombia v Ghana

 

[NicCarBel]

Just having a think, if Paraguay beat Turkiye, aren't we essentially guaranteed third? Rankings are based on head to head, so if Turkiye are 3 points behind us going into the last matchday it's impossible to leapfrog us no matter what happens.

For that reason, I'm probably going for a Paraguay win against Turkiye.

Yes, I'm doing the mental maths on that, and I think that works out. Will make 3rd place of our group harder to progress if that happens and we lose by multiple goals though.

 

[rebelliousfeminist974]

As long as we avoid the group F third place, we will be fine.

We can avoid the third placed team from group F if any of the teams from group B end up taking one of the eight spots given the permutations but if all of groups A, C, D, F, H and three of groups E, G, I, J, K and L have their sides advance then the Socceroos are guaranteed that matchup.

 

[Toebash]

Yes, I'm doing the mental maths on that, and I think that works out. Will make 3rd place of our group harder to progress if that happens and we lose by multiple goals though.

Thinking about it a little more, there's a world where Australia, Turkiye and Paraguay end up on three points (we lose our next two, Turkiye loses to Paraguay and beats the US, and Paraguay obviously loses to Turkiye and beats us). In that case, I think it would go down to goal difference and we could be fourth depending on scores.

 

[NicCarBel]

Thinking about it a little more, there's a world where Australia, Turkiye and Paraguay end up on three points (we lose our next two, Turkiye loses to Paraguay and beats the US, and Paraguay obviously loses to Turkiye and beats us). In that case, I think it would go down to goal difference and we could be fourth depending on scores.

If that happens, the results against US are removed from the table, and then whoever has the most points, then highest goal difference, then most goals scored (again, with the US results removed for these) goes into 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively.

 

[rebelliousfeminist974]

Thinking about it a little more, there's a world where Australia, Turkiye and Paraguay end up on three points (we lose our next two, Turkiye loses to Paraguay and beats the US, and Paraguay obviously loses to Turkiye and beats us). In that case, I think it would go down to goal difference and we could be fourth depending on scores.

The Socceroos could finish last if we lose out and Turkey win out because Paraguay would be third on head to head despite having inferior for and against.

 

[Toebash]

The Socceroos could finish last if we lose out and Turkey win out because Paraguay would be third on head to head despite having inferior for and against.

Yes that's why I said we should be hoping for a Paraguay win against Turkiye.

 

[rebelliousfeminist974]

Yes that's why I said we should be hoping for a Paraguay win against Turkiye.

Even if Turkey win against Paraguay, the Socceroos lose out and the United States win out we could still finish top two depending on the scorelines so ideally we want to lose by a narrow margin against Paraguay if we can't get a result.

 

[NicCarBel]

The Socceroos could finish last if we lose out and Turkey win out because Paraguay would be third on head to head despite having inferior for and against.

Thinking about it a little more, there's a world where Australia, Turkiye and Paraguay end up on three points (we lose our next two, Turkiye loses to Paraguay and beats the US, and Paraguay obviously loses to Turkiye and beats us). In that case, I think it would go down to goal difference and we could be fourth depending on scores.

Actually, having read that - the way you've described that would be Turkey on 6 points (you've mentioned both Turkey defeating Paraguay, and also Paraguay defeating Turkey).

There is a scenario where we all (AUS, TUR, PAR) end on 3 points though, and that's USA defeating us and Turkey, and then Paraguay defeating us, and Turkey defeating Paraguay.

I've applied 1-0 wins to all the remaining matches in the above scenario, and this is what the table would be (using overall goal difference, etc)


However, we then need to apply "goal difference between the teams concerned" which is removing the results against USA - so, because I had applied 1-0 results for the remaining games, we would go through with a head to head goal difference of +1, Paraguay would be third on +/-0, and Turkey in fourth on -2

 

[NicCarBel]

Then there is also the possibility of two draws on Saturday, and Turkey defeating USA and Paraguay defeating us on the following Friday. This would see a 4 way tie on 4 points, in which case it will go straight down to overall goal difference. Again, assuming the two final day victories are only by one goal, that would still see us advance in 2nd behind USA, with Turkey in 3rd.

 

[NicCarBel]

Ok - so, using the current standings (and assuming two things - that Colombia defeats Uzbekistan, and the Ghana v Panama game ends as is), this is the current knockout bracket (the matches next to eachother play eachother in the next round)

• Germany v Brazil
• Norway v Netherlands
• South Korea v Canada
• Sweden v Morocco
• DR Congo v Panama
• Uruguay v Austria
• United States v Qatar
• New Zealand v Czechia
• Scotland v Japan
• Ivory Coast v France
• Mexico v Spain
• England v Portugal
• Argentina v Saudi Arabia
• Australia v Iran
• Switzerland v Belgium
• Colombia v Ghana

I'll need to update this - but I'll move it into the WC - General + watchalong threads

 

[Toebash]

Then there is also the possibility of two draws on Saturday, and Turkey defeating USA and Paraguay defeating us on the following Friday. This would see a 4 way tie on 4 points, in which case it will go straight down to overall goal difference. Again, assuming the two final day victories are only by one goal, that would still see us advance in 2nd behind USA, with Turkey in 3rd.

Yeah if every team is on 4 points I'd feel pretty confident of going through given the USA's thumping of Paraguay.

 

[Marmot]

As an American fan - CB Tim Ream is the weak link if he gets the start (which is expected).
There is no way the Australian coaching staff doesn't know this.
He’s looked completely cooked for pace in MLS this year (he's old).

US will prob go back three and try to shield him with athletic partners in back 3 (Freeman + Richards) - but you can't hide a slow CB in world cup. It should match up well for Australian strength in counterattack speed of Irankunda/Toure/athletic MF)

 

[FeedTheBrox]